The Bowl Page
Created
10/11/00;
Updated
4/21/13

 






'Cats Prepare to Extend Bowl Winning Streak;
HTP Projects Wings Bowl for 2013



The Wildcats have finally obliterated their nagging bowl win drought and now enjoy a bowl winning streak of one.  Now begins the work for a successful 2013 season and for an extension of their postseason success.

With the core of NU's talent returning from last season (except for offensive line, where NU will be very young), the 'Cats are in a good place to secure a winning year in '13.  However, they face a daunting schedule, and their work in the Legends Division will be challenging.

2013 will be the final year of the current B1G Division alignment, and it will be the final season for the B1G's current bowl slate.  In 2014, the conference will again be fundamentally changed, when Rutgers and Maryland enter the B1G, and the divisions will be restructured.

Also in 2014 the B1G will have a very different bowl game lineup.  The conference is possibly moving away from the glut of Florida games (bye bye Gator...) and eyeing games on the west (Kraft) and east (Pinstripe) coasts.

Way Too Early Bowl Projections

GoTickets.com (April) Projects NU to Capitol One vs. Texas A&M;
CollegeFootballNews (March): NU to Wings vs. TCU


Below is the lineup of B1G bowls for the 2013 season.  This could also possibly change as we approach the season, and the dates and networks certainly will change and will be updated. 

Now that spring practices are done, it's time to post the initial bowl projections!

Last Year's Recap


Last year, as the above graph shows, HTP underestimated the 'Cats' bowl prospects early in the season.  There were three reasons for short-changing the prediction for NU's bowl hopes early on:
  • I had taken into account the effect of Ohio State and Penn State's ineligibility, but had woefully underestimated Penn State's power this year, as it tore through the B1G and lessened other team's prospects for major bowls, particularly Iowa and Wisconsin. 
  • The B1G was, top-to-bottom, a much weaker conference than I had expected.  I'd have predicted Wisconsin would be the Leaders representative in the B1G championship, but not with a 7-5 record.
  • Northwestern's defense, particularly its ground defense, was better than I had expected.
It should be noted, though, that HTP was predicting the Gator mid-way through the season as the most likely destination for the 'Cats, at a point when nearly every major media site was predicting Dallas, Meineke, or Wings for NU.  The Gator stopped being HTP's front runner only when the Chicago Tribune reported that its "sources" informed it that the Capitol One was about invite NU.

2013 Too Early Projections

As of April 21, HailToPurple.com gives the Wildcats an 84% chance of returning to the postseason in 2013.  This is the highest preseason projection by HTP in the 14 seasons that the site has offered odds!   It should be noted, however, that the previous record-holder for preseason bowl chances was 2001.  HTP set the 2001 preseason bowl chances at 80%; NU ended up having a losing season.

The strength and depth of NU's offensive secondary, combined with the ever-improving defense, put the 'Cats in a great position at a major bowl run.  As with last year Penn State is not eligible, and several B1G teams are rebuilding.  The most likely bowl right now appears to be Wings, which picks ahead of Gator this year.  NU seems to have a legitimate shot at an upper-tier bowl as well.

The next update to the bowl projections will be in August, during Camp Kenosha.



Schedule of Possible Bowls, 2013-14
AND Schedule for the 2013 Big Ten Championship Game
Big Ten Slot
Bowl
(and Date)

Network
(may change)
NU's Chances*
(posted Apr. 21)
Legends #1 vs.
Leaders #1
Big Ten Championship
Lucas Oil Stadium
Dec. 7, 2013
Fox
Sports
14%
(BCS #1 vs. #2)
BCS Vizio Title Game
(at the Rose Bowl)
Jan. 6, 2014

ESPN
<1%
BCS: Big Ten #1
 
vs. Pac-12
Rose Bowl
Jan. 1
ESPN
6%
(BCS)
Orange Bowl
Jan. 3
ESPN <1%
(BCS) Fiesta Bowl
Jan. 1
ESPN <1%
(BCS) Sugar Bowl
Jan. 2
ESPN <1%
Big Ten #2
vs. SEC
Capital One (Citrus) Bowl
Jan. 1

ESPN?
7%
Big Ten #3
vs. SEC
Outback Bowl
Jan. 1
ABC?
13%
Big Ten #4
vs. Big 12
Wings Bowl (will pick 4th
in 2013)
Dec. 29
ESPN? 17%
Big Ten #5
 vs. SEC
Gator Bowl
Jan. 1
ESPN2 8%
Big Ten #6
vs. Big 12
Meineke Texas Bowl
Dec. 28?

ESPN
14%
Big Ten #7
vs. Big 12 in 2012
Heart of Dallas Bowl
Jan. 1
ESPNU 9%
Big Ten #8
vs. MAC
Pizza!  Pizza!
Dec. 26
ESPN 5%
n/a At large bowl
n/a 3%
*The likelihood of each bowl is a simple projection by HailToPurple.com.  The likelihood numbers are additive.  So, if for instance the chance for the Gator Bowl is given as 10%, that should NOT be read as saying that NU has only a 10% chance of making any bowl at the level of the Gator Bowl or higher.  To calculate that likelihood, simply add all the chances above the Gator Bowl to it.  The sum of all the listed chances equals the projected likelihood that NU will make any bowl game in 2013.  When adding, remember not to include the likelihood for the Big Ten championship game, since its chances overlap with the other postseason games.  During the season, this list will change after each game. 



Northwestern Bowl History


Select a link to view details about NU's 11 bowl appearances, bowl records, and other special games.