The Aidan Chiles / Chip Kelly Show rolled into its fifth episode for the season and came away with a cruise-control victory over Ball State.

Now sporting four wins, including its first non-conference sweep in over a decade, NU is close to clenching postseason eligibility. The big concerns remain the strength of NU's schedule (still brutal, although feeling more manageable) and the team's injury roster (equally brutal).

Updated odds are below.


Preseason comments: With its win over Central Michigan in the 2025 GameAbove Sports Bowl, Northwestern has claimed victory in its last six bowl games, dating back to its win in the 2016 Pinstripe Bowl. NU's bowl streak is currently third in the nation, behind only Minnesota (with nine straight wins) and Ohio (with seven).

Coming into 2026, NU will be a new team-- and in many ways, a new program. The Wildcats have a nearly entirely new offensive coaching staff, led by Chip Kelly, and several new faces on the defensive side. They will be led on the field by a new quarterback, most likely incoming former Oregon / Michigan State QB Aidan Chiles. And, of course, the 'Cats will unveil the new Ryan Field, setting the stage for the team's 150th anniversary season to become Year One of the program's new era.

NU's biggest challenge? Its 2026 schedule, which is a Big Ten murderer's row of heavy-hitting programs. The 'Cats will be very, very lucky to win just one of its games among the set of Indiana, Ohio State, and Oregon (all road games). NU's home games include its stadium opener against Penn State, a potential slug-fest with Iowa, and a chance at revenge against Illinois. And we should not overlook the season opener, a night game against a very dangerous South Dakota State team.

While there will be many new components to the team and quite a few question marks, NU has a slightly better than 50% chance of returning to the postseason this year to compete for its seventh-straight bowl win.








Which bowl could NU make? Well, it might not be a Big Ten tie-in bowl. For the first time since they joined the conference, the former Pac-12 teams will be eligible for (some) Big Ten bowl games, making for a very crowded conference field. Also decreasing the odds for a conference-tied bowl is the elimination of the Detroit bowl, typically the landing spot for the Big Ten's last bowl-eligible team.

The model still places the Mayo Bowl in the lead spot for NU.

The next update to the projections will post after the MSU game.

Postseason Tier	Game (and Date)	Network (may change)	NU's Chances1 (as of 10/11/26)
	Big Ten Title Game:
Big Ten #1 & #2	Big Ten Championship Lucas Oil Stadium Dec. 5, 2026	Fox	4%
	Postseason:
CFP Big Ten #1, and Likely #2-4	2026-27 Quarterfinal Games (Ranked #1-#4, plus 1st Round winners): Fiesta Bowl: Dec. 30 Cotton Bowl: Jan. 1 Peach Bowl: Jan. 1 Rose Bowl: Jan. 1	Fiesta: TNT Rest: tbd	11%
	CFP First Round (Ranked #5-#12): On Campus (one game): Dec. 18 On Campus (three games): Dec. 19	ESPN ABC/TNT
Tier Two	Citrus (vs. SEC) Jan. 2	ABC	9%
	ReliaQuest2 (vs. SEC) Dec. 31	ESPN
Tier Three	Duke's Mayo Bowl (B1G or SEC vs. ACC) Dec. 26	ABC	45%
	Las Vegas (B1G/ACC/Big 12 vs. SEC) Dec. 31	ESPN
	Music City (vs. SEC) Dec. 30	ESPN
	Pinstripe (vs. ACC) Dec. 26	ABC
Tier Four	Cactus3 (vs. Big 12) Dec. 26	ABC	19%
At Large	Non-Aligned Bowl	n/a	8%

Notes:

1. The likelihood of each bowl is a simple projection by HailToPurple.com.  The likelihood numbers are additive.  So, if for instance the chance for a tier three bowl is given as 10%, that should NOT be read as saying that NU has only a 10% chance of making any bowl at that level or higher.  To calculate that likelihood, simply add all the chances above tier three to it.  The sum of all the listed chances equals the projected likelihood that NU will make any bowl game.  When adding, remember not to include the likelihood for the Big Ten championship game, since its chances overlap with the other postseason games.  During the season, this list will change after each game.

2. The ReliaQuest Bowl is the former Hall of Fame Bowl, later re-named the Outback Bowl.

3. The Cactus Bowl is the renamed Rate Bowl, which has been part of the Big Ten's bowl portfolio for several years. Originally the Copper Bowl, this game was later renamed the Insight.com Bowl, Insight Bowl, Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl, Cheez-It Bowl, and then the Guaranteed Rate Bowl.