The Bowl Page
Created
10/11/00;
Updated
6/14/26

 







'Cats Tear into 2026 with a Six-Bowl Win Streak;
Odd Slightly Favor Postseason Return



With its win over Central Michigan in the 2025 GameAbove Sports Bowl, Northwestern has claimed victory in its last six bowl games, dating back to its win in the 2016 Pinstripe Bowl. NU's bowl streak is currently third in the nation, behind only Minnesota (with nine straight wins) and Ohio (with seven).

Coming into 2026, NU will be a new team-- and in many ways, a new program. The Wildcats have a nearly entirely new offensive coaching staff, led by Chip Kelly, and several new faces on the defensive side. They will be led on the field by a new quarterback, most likely incoming former Oregon / Michigan State QB Aidan Chiles. And, of course, the 'Cats are expected to open the new Ryan Field, setting the stage for the team's 150th anniversary season to become Year One of the program's new era.

NU's biggest challenge? Its 2026 schedule, which is a Big Ten murderer's row of heavy-hitting programs. The 'Cats will be very, very lucky to win just one of its games among the set of Indiana, Ohio State, and Oregon (all road games). NU's home games include its stadium opener against Penn State, a potential slug-fest with Iowa, and a chance at revenge against Illinois. And we should not overlook the season opener, a night game against a very dangerous South Dakota State team.

While there will be many new components to the team and quite a few question marks, NU has a slightly better than 50% chance of returning to the postseason this year to compete for its seventh-straight bowl win.





Wins and Bowl Projections: First Preseason Update

HTP's model sets the chances of NU making the 2026 postseason at 51%, essentially a coin flip.

The model points to NU notching either five or six wins in the regular season.

Our model, as usual, predicts a decent chance that a five-win NU would make it into a bowl. However, as the season begins this factor could change if it becomes clear that the FBS will be able to field an adequate supply of six-win teams to fill all bowl slots.





Which bowl could NU make? Well, it won't likely be a Big Ten tie-in bowl. For the first time since they joined the conference, the former Pac-12 teams will be eligible for Big Ten bowl games, making for a very crowded conference field. Also decreasing the odds for a conference-tied bowl is the elimination of the Detroit bowl, typically the landing spot for the Big Ten's last bowl-eligible team.

Because of this, taken together with the projected number of wins for NU, HTP initially projects that the Wildcats will make a bowl, but it will be an at-large spot.

The next update to the projections will post just before the season kicks off.



Schedule of Possible Bowls, 2026-27
  AND Schedule for the 2026 Big Ten Championship Game
Postseason
Tier
Game
(and Date)
Network
(may change)
NU's Chances1
(as of 6/14/26)


Big Ten Title Game:


Big Ten
#1 & #2
Big Ten Championship
Lucas Oil Stadium
Dec. 5, 2026
Fox <1%

Postseason:

CFP
Big Ten #1,
and Likely
#2-4
2026-27 Quarterfinal Games
(Ranked #1-#4, plus 1st Round winners):
Fiesta Bowl: Dec. 30
Cotton Bowl: Jan. 1
Peach Bowl: Jan. 1
Rose Bowl: Jan. 1

Fiesta: TNT
Rest: tbd
3%
CFP First Round (Ranked #5-#12):
On Campus (one game): Dec. 18
On Campus (three games): Dec. 19
ESPN
ABC/TNT
Tier Two

Citrus (vs. SEC)
Jan. 2

ABC 2%
ReliaQuest2 (vs. SEC)
Dec. 31

ESPN
Tier Three
Gator (B1G or ACC vs. SEC)
(Not likely to select B1G in 2026)
Dec. 30

ESPN 18%
Las Vegas (B1G/ACC/Big 12 vs. SEC)
Dec. 31
ESPN
Music City (vs. SEC)
Dec. 30

ESPN
Pinstripe (vs. ACC)
Dec. 26
ABC
Tier Four

Cactus3 (vs. Big 12)
Dec. 26

ABC 9%
At Large
Non-Aligned Bowl
n/a 19%
Notes:

1. The likelihood of each bowl is a simple projection by HailToPurple.com.  The likelihood numbers are additive.  So, if for instance the chance for a tier three bowl is given as 10%, that should NOT be read as saying that NU has only a 10% chance of making any bowl at that level or higher.  To calculate that likelihood, simply add all the chances above tier three to it.  The sum of all the listed chances equals the projected likelihood that NU will make any bowl game.  When adding, remember not to include the likelihood for the Big Ten championship game, since its chances overlap with the other postseason games.  During the season, this list will change after each game.

2. The ReliaQuest Bowl is the former Hall of Fame Bowl, later re-named the Outback Bowl.

3. The Cactus Bowl is the renamed Rate Bowl, which has been part of the Big Ten's bowl portfolio for several years. Originally the Copper Bowl, this game was later renamed the Insight.com Bowl, Insight Bowl, Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl, Cheez-It Bowl, and then the Guaranteed Rate Bowl.