|
|
|
The Bowl
Page
Created
10/11/00;
Updated
10/14/18
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
Hot Wildcats Now Look at
Possible B1G West Run
Northwestern
entered the 2018 season with a two-bowl winning streak, and was in a
good
position to make a run at bowl win #3 in a row. The 'Cats returned
a powerful defense and an offensive backfield
that was stocked, despite losing Justin Jackson. However, the season
began in disappointing fashion, with NU losing to Duke, Akron, and
Michigan. But the 'Cats seem to have righted the ship, with B1G wins
vs. the Spartans and Cornhuskers. NU is now 3-1 in the B1G, and are
still in the hunt
in the West. Wisconsin's flop in Ann Arbor has left the West wide open.
This year's postseason slate is similar to
the one introduced in 2014, when the Big Ten
bowl tiers were installed. As noted elsewhere, after initially stating
that there would be a formal tier system, the Big Ten backed off of the
idea, and the tiers are more of a guide. Nevertheless, there are
significant differences in quality between tiers, and very little
difference within a given tier.
Because of this structure, HailToPurple.com stopped predicting NU's
chances for each individual bowl. Instead, we forecast in
which tier NU will land (see below).
The 2014 arrangement involves
11 different bowl games that rotate to fill nine spots per
year. Nine landing places for the conference is a record for the
B1G. When we add to that the possibility of the Big Ten filling
multiple "New Year's Six" bowl games, it becomes clear that the
conference will likely have fewer qualified teams than bowl slots. This
has been the case for two years running, and it means that a team need
only go 6-6 to
virtually guarantee a bowl game.
Oct. 14 Wins Projection
The win over Nebraska has NU back in the six-win range, with a decent shot at eight wins for the regular season:
Detailed bowl odds are below.
HTP NU Bowl Projections
As
always with Northwestern, it's very difficult to project the team's
postseason: the team that can lose at home to Akron is just as likely
to whack a #20 team on the road.
The current odds of NU returning to the postseason are 84%, up from 71% last week.
The most likely destination is interesting this year. I think that NU
and the B1G will lobby to get the 'Cats in a game on the West
Coast if NU's record allows. With NU's wins over MSU and Nebraska, I
think the 'Cats are again on track for a West Coast Bowl, likely San Fran (aka the RedBox Bowl).
The next update to the projections will be after the Rutgers game.
Schedule of Possible Bowls, 2018-19
AND Schedule for the 2017 Big Ten Championship Game
Postseason
Tier |
Bowl
(and Date) |
Network
(may change) |
NU's Chances1
(as of 10/14/18)
|
West #1
vs. East #1 |
Big Ten Championship
Lucas Oil Stadium
Dec. 1, 2018
|
Fox |
19% |
Tier Two
Big Ten #2-4
|
Citrus Bowl (vs. SEC)
Jan. 1
[Orange Bowl is a semifinal game for 2018-19]
|
ABC |
23%
|
Outback Bowl (vs. SEC)
Jan. 1
[Unlikely to select NU in 2018]
|
ESPN2 |
Holiday Bowl (vs. Pac-12)
Dec. 31
|
FS1 |
Tier Three2
Big Ten #5-7
|
Music City Bowl (vs. SEC)
Dec. 28
[Unlikely to select B1G in 2018]
|
ESPN |
37%
|
TaxSlayer (aka Gator) (vs. SEC)
Dec. 31
[Likely to select B1G in 2018]
|
ESPN |
Pinstripe Bowl (vs. ACC)
Dec. 27
[Unlikely to select NU in 2018]
|
ESPN |
RedBox (aka San Fran) (vs. Pac-12)
Dec. 31
|
FOX |
Tier Four2
Big Ten #8-9
|
Quick Lane Bowl (vs. ACC)
Dec. 26
|
ESPN |
22%
|
Armed Forces Bowl (vs. MWC)
Dec. 22
[Won't select B1G]
|
ESPN |
Heart of Dallas (vs. Big 12 or C-USA)
Dec. 26
[Unlikely to select B1G]
|
ESPN |
At Large
|
Non-Aligned Bowl (including Frisco TX)
|
n/a |
2% |
Notes:
1. The
likelihood of each bowl is a simple projection by
HailToPurple.com. The likelihood numbers are additive. So,
if for
instance the chance for a tier three bowl is given as 10%, that should
NOT be read as saying that NU has only a 10% chance of making any bowl
at that level or higher. To calculate that
likelihood, simply add all the chances above tier three to
it. The sum of all the listed chances equals the projected
likelihood that NU will make any bowl game in 2016. When adding, remember not to
include the likelihood for the Big Ten championship game, since its
chances overlap with the other postseason games. During the
season, this list will change after each game.
2.
There are more bowl games in these tiers than there are Big Ten team
slots. It is likely that a Big Ten team will not be chosen for
both the Music City and Gator Bowls in a given year (in 2017, the B1G
will likely play in the Gator Bowl, not the Music City Bowl).
This is also
the case with the Heart of Dallas Bowl and the Armed Forces Bowl, which
will try to alternate B1G selections.
Northwestern Bowl History
Select a link to view details about NU's 14 bowl appearances, bowl records, and other special games.
|
|
|
