The Bowl Page
Created
10/11/00;
Updated
10/26/25

 




STILL ONE WIN AWAY...

MEDIA PROJECTIONS FOR NU:
Shifting to Rate Bowl
Updated Oct. 26
  • CFN: Pinstripe vs. Cal-- the only media source to upgrade NU's projection vs. last week.  (last week: GameAbove vs. Miami O)
  • CBS: Music City vs. LSU (last week: Music City vs. Tennessee)
  • ESPN (Bonagura): Rate vs. UCF (last week: Pinstripe vs. Louisville)
  • ESPN (Schlabach): Pinstripe vs. Pitt (last week: same)
  • Athlon (Lassan): Rate vs. Iowa State (last week:  Rate vs. Baylor)
  • ProFootballNetwork.com: Rate vs. Baylor (last week: Pinstripe vs. Duke)
  • USA Today (Smith): Rate vs. TCU (last week: GameAbove vs. Bowling Green)





Northwestern closed its brief Martin Stadium era with a critical shutout win against Purdue, leaving the Wildcats just one win from formal bowl eligibility at 5-2, with a four-game winning streak.

Unfortunately, the Wildcats dropped a winnable game in Lincoln that would have sealed their trip to the postseason, and the rest of their schedule is much, much more difficult.

Updated HTP projections are posted below.

Preseason POV:

After a pleasant surprise in 2023-- new Wildcat head coach David Braun held the team together and helped forge a campaign for the ages-- the 'Cats suffered a letdown season in 2024. The team enters 2025 with a new quarterback and questions about key positions on offense and defense. It also faces the usual supreme challenges in the Big Ten, facing off against conference powerhouses Oregon, Michigan, and Penn State.

The big change this season is at quarterback. Preston Stone has officially taken the reins on offense. Stone, a transfer from SMU, could provide the necessary shake-up to NU's offense to lead it to improvement. The offense will also feature the return of Cam Porter, and the run game should be solid. Receivers, however, will be hard to predict: the wideouts will likely be led by additional transfers. The offensive line also is new-look and transfer-heavy (a pattern certainly emergent on both sides of the ball in 2025), although Jack Bailey is set to return to center.

The defense is also rife with transfer players, including several from other Big Ten schools.

Most of the national media have low expectations for NU this fall. CollegeFootballNews.com ranks the 'Cats 65th in the nation and 17th in the conference in the preseason. CFN predicts that Stone should improve the offense, but that it won't be enough to move the needle significantly. Then again, CFN also mentioned in its preseason POV that "The Wildcats move back into their normal stadium [sic] with a decent-looking veteran team," so they might not be on top of the situation.

Athlon ranks NU 70th, just ahead of Maryland, and also comments on Stone's potential contributions. Sports Illustrated's power rankings put NU in the familiar 17th spot in the Big Ten, just ahead of Purdue. SI called out the sizable changes to the defense and the amount of departing defensive talent.





Updated Wins and Bowl Projections
After the Loss to Nebraska

HTP's model now sets the chances of NU making the 2025 postseason at 57%, down 25 percentage points from last week. HTP has changed its projection from the Pinstripe Bowl to Detroit. The odds plunged not just because of the 'Cats' loss to a beatable Nebraska team; the loss revealed that many of the same issues that surfaced with the team during its first two games of 2025 remain and could likely send the team into a winless patch to close the season.

One reason that HTP has kept the team's bowl odds at over 50% rests with its possible fate as a five-win program. NU's APR rating would make it a prime choice if a five-win team is needed to round out the bowl slots. HTP's model now gives the team a 24% chance of making a bowl even if it doesn't win another game. This factor could change if it becomes clear that the FBS will be able to field an adequate supply of six-win teams to fill all bowl slots.

Which bowl could NU make? With the addition of UCLA, USC, Washington, and Oregon, this might at first glance appear to be chaos. However, the four new teams will only be eligible for the Big Ten's spots in the playoff games; further down the bowl chain, the former Pac-12 teams will vie for the old Pac-12 bowl games (for the 2024 and 2025 seasons-- after that, who knows how this will shake out). The legacy Big Ten teams will compete for their usual Big Ten-contracted spots.

The next update to the projections will post in two weeks, after the USC game.

Schedule of Possible Bowls, 2025-26
Postseason
Tier		 Game
(and Date)		 Network
(may change)		 NU's Chances1
(as of 10/26/25)
Tier Two

 Citrus (vs. SEC)
Dec. 31
 ABC <1%
ReliaQuest2 (vs. SEC)
Dec. 31
 		ESPN
Tier Three
 Gator (B1G or ACC vs. SEC)
(Not likely to select B1G in 2025)
Dec. 27
 ESPN 19%
Las Vegas (vs. Pac-12)
Dec. 31
ESPN
Music City (vs. SEC)
Dec. 30
 ESPN
Pinstripe (vs. ACC)
Dec. 27
 		ABC
Tier Four

 Rate (vs. Big 12)
Dec. 26
 		ESPN 29%
GameAbove Sports
(Detroit) (vs. MAC)
Dec. 26
 ESPN
At Large
 Non-Aligned Bowl
(including Armed Forces)
 n/a 9%
Notes:

1. The likelihood of each bowl is a simple projection by HailToPurple.com.  The likelihood numbers are additive.  So, if for instance the chance for a tier three bowl is given as 10%, that should NOT be read as saying that NU has only a 10% chance of making any bowl at that level or higher.  To calculate that likelihood, simply add all the chances above tier three to it.  The sum of all the listed chances equals the projected likelihood that NU will make any bowl game.  When adding, remember not to include the likelihood for the Big Ten championship game, since its chances overlap with the other postseason games.  During the season, this list will change after each game.

2. The ReliaQuest Bowl is the former Hall of Fame Bowl, later re-named the Outback Bowl. It has been re-named again with the change of sponsor.