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The Bowl
Page
Created
10/11/00;
Updated 4/16/23
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Spring POV and Bowl Odds
'Cats Might Have Too Much Change
to Work Through in '23
On
the heels of two of the most disappointing seasons in over 40 years--
including last year's horrific 1-11 campaign-- NU football is going
through huge changes this year. The program has a group of new coaches,
including:
- Defensive coordinator David Braun (from FCS North Dakota State)
- Wide receivers coach Armon Binns (from FCS Youngstown State)
- Defensive line coach Christian Smith (from FCS South Dakota State)
- Cornerbacks coach LaMarcus Hicks (from Utah State)
The
Wildcats also face big changes on its playing roster, with question
marks in nearly every position. At quarterback, Ryan Hilinski and
Brendan Sullivan will face competition from Jack Lausch, who played in
one game in 2022.
The rest of the offense was gutted by graduation, transfers, and the
NFL draft. The wide receivers corps is essentially starting from
scratch.
Defense was a smoldering tire fire last year, and it is being
reconstructed this year under Braun's guidance. The defensive line is
starting over with a new coach, and its strength will be an unknown
until the smoke clears from this spring's transfers.
Given the high number of departing starters and the significant changes
to the roster, combined with the team's woeful record last year, it
might be too much to ask for the team to return to a bowl game in 2023.
This season will likely be a time to solidify the new team and staff
and look to the future.
HTP Spring Wins and Bowl Projections
The initial odds of NU returning to a bowl game are 20%,
the lowest spring odds since we first set them in 2000. The spring
model estimates that NU will improve vs. last year, moving from one win
to four wins
Our models predict a decent chance that a
five-win NU would make it into a bowl. However, as the season begins this
factor could change if it becomes clear that the FBS will be able to
field an adequate supply of six-win teams to fill all bowl slots.
The
next update to the projections will post during the August preseason practices.
Schedule of Possible Bowls, 2023-24
AND Schedule for the 2023 Big Ten Championship Game
Postseason
Tier |
Game
(and Date) |
Network
(may change) |
NU's Chances1
(as of 4/16/23)
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Big Ten Title Game:
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West #1
vs. East #1 |
Big Ten Championship
Lucas Oil Stadium Dec. 2, 2023
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Fox |
<1%
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Postseason: |
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Tier One Big Ten #1
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Playoff semifinal games: Rose and Sugar Bowls January 1, 2024
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ESPN |
<1%
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Orange (ACC vs. SEC/B1G)
Fiesta Bowl (At Large vs. At Large) Dec. 30
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ESPN |
Peach (At Large vs. At Large)
Dec. 29
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ESPN |
Cotton (At Large vs. At Large)
Jan. 1
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ESPN |
Tier Two Big Ten #2-3
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Citrus (vs. SEC/ACC) TBA
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ABC |
<1%
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ReliaQuest2 (vs. SEC) TBA
|
ESPN2 |
Tier Three Big Ten #4-7 |
Gator (B1G or ACC vs. SEC)
(Not likely to select B1G in 2023) TBA
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ESPN |
5%
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Las Vegas (vs. Pac-12) TBA |
ESPN |
Music City (vs. SEC) TBA
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ESPN |
Pinstripe (vs. ACC) TBA
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ESPN |
Tier Four Big Ten #8-9
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Guaranteed Rate (vs. Big 12) TBA
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ESPN |
10%
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Quick Lane (vs. MAC) TBA
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ESPN |
At Large
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Non-Aligned Bowl
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n/a |
4% |
No Go
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No bowl for NU: most / all bowls canceled
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n/a |
1% |
No Go
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No bowl for NU: NU does not qualify / is not invited
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n/a |
79%
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Notes:
1. The
likelihood of each bowl is a simple projection by
HailToPurple.com. The likelihood numbers are additive. So,
if for
instance the chance for a tier three bowl is given as 10%, that should
NOT be read as saying that NU has only a 10% chance of making any bowl
at that level or higher. To calculate that
likelihood, simply add all the chances above tier three to
it. The sum of all the listed chances equals the projected
likelihood that NU will make any bowl game. When adding, remember not to
include the likelihood for the Big Ten championship game, since its
chances overlap with the other postseason games. During the
season, this list will change after each game.
2. The ReliaQuest Bowl is the former Hall of Fame Bowl, later re-named
the Outback Bowl. It has been re-named again with the change of sponsor.
Recap of HTP Weekly Bowl Odds,
2016 - 2022
Ever
since the summer of 2000, HTP has posted the likelihood of NU playing
in a bowl game, typically updated in April, during the August
preseason, and weekly during the season until NU's postseason is
determined. Here are the weekly odds during the most recent six seasons:
Obviously, 2020 is an outlier: we did not have any idea if the season
would even be played, let alone if there would be bowl games. Even at
the end of the truncated season, when NU claimed the Big Ten West
title, there was only a 74% chance that the 'Cats would bowl, because
total cancellation was still a real possibility.
Taking out 2020, the most recent seasons began with high hopes for a
bowl appearance-- with the notable exception of 2022. 2022 stands out
as being the only "normal" season recently during which the preseason
odds actually dipped below 50%. The win against Nebraska bumped the
bowl likelihood to 66%, and then the odds went into the quickest
freefall since 2002.
The trend of when during each season the odds became certain-- 100% or 0%-- is also stark:
- 2017: 100% by week 8
- 2018: 100% by week 10
- 2019: 0% by week 7
- 2021: 0% by week 8
- 2022: 0% by week 5
Northwestern Bowl History
Select a link to view details about NU's 16 bowl appearances, bowl records, and other special games.
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