|
|
|
The Bowl
Page
Created
10/11/00;
Updated
9/16/17
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
'Cats Look for First-Ever
Back-to-Back Bowl Wins
Win vs. Bowling Green
Puts NU Back on Track
Northwestern,
fresh off of a great win in New York at the Pinstripe Bowl, is
returning much of its talent from 2016 and has a shot at heading
back to a bowl this year. If NU can make it to the postseason, the team
could achieve a second straight postseason win, which would be a first
for NU.
This year's postseason slate is similar to
the one introduced in 2014, when the Big Ten
bowl tiers were installed. As noted elsewhere, after initially stating
that there would be a formal tier system, the Big Ten backed off of the
idea, and the tiers are more of a guide. Nevertheless, there are
significant differences in quality between tiers, and very little
difference within a given tier.
Because of this structure, HailToPurple.com stopped predicting NU's
chances for each individual bowl. Instead, we forecast in
which tier NU will land (see below).
The
2014 arrangement involves
11 different bowl games that rotate to fill nine spots per
year. Nine landing places for the conference is a record for the
B1G. When we add to that the possibility of the Big Ten filling
multiple "New Year's Six" bowl games, it becomes clear that the
conference will likely have fewer qualified teams than bowl slots. 6-6
guarantees a bowl bid. NU, given its high APR, will also have a strong
chance for a bowl even if the 'Cats go 5-7.
Sept. 16, 2017 Projection
NU
still has some unresolved issues, but the team has bounced back nicely
from the hard loss vs. Duke. Injuries during the past three weeks are a
concern, but the line play appears to be improving.
The current models didn't change a great deal vs. last week, which is a good thing.
Based
on the probability models, we continue to predict that NU will finish the regular season
with six or seven wins.
Dropping to five wins (or less) still appears unlikely, and even if NU
did finish with five wins, there is currently a 74% chance that the
'Cats would still make it to a bowl. Detailed bowl odds are below.
HTP NU Bowl Projections
The current odds of NU returning to a bowl game are 85%. The most likely destination: the Foster Farms Bowl.
The next update to the projections will be after the Wisconsin game.
Schedule of Possible Bowls, 2017-18
AND Schedule for the 2017 Big Ten Championship Game
Postseason
Tier |
Bowl
(and Date-- dates may change through spring) |
Network
(may change) |
NU's Chances1
(as of 9/16/17)
|
West #1
vs. East #1 |
Big Ten Championship
Lucas Oil Stadium
Dec. 2, 2017 |
NBC
Sports |
10% |
Tier One
Big Ten #1
|
Playoff semifinal games:
Rose Bowl - Jan. 1, 2018
Sugar Bowl - Jan. 1
|
ESPN |
2%
|
Orange Bowl (vs. ACC)
Dec. 30
|
ESPN |
Fiesta Bowl (at large)
Dec. 30
|
ESPN |
Peach Bowl
Jan. 1
|
ESPN |
Cotton Bowl
Dec. 29
|
ESPN |
Tier Two
Big Ten #2-4
|
Citrus Bowl (vs. SEC)
Jan. 1
[If Orange Bowl does not select B1G]
|
ABC |
17%
|
Outback Bowl (vs. SEC)
Jan. 1
[Unlikely to select NU in 2017]
|
ESPN2 |
Holiday Bowl (vs. Pac-12)
Dec. 28
|
FOX |
Tier Three2
Big Ten #5-7
|
Music City Bowl (vs. SEC)
Dec. 29
[Unlikely to select B1G in 2017]
|
ESPN |
37%
|
TaxSlayer (aka Gator) (vs. SEC)
Dec. 30
[Likely to select B1G in 2017]
|
ESPN |
Pinstripe Bowl (vs. ACC)
Dec. 27
[Will not select NU in 2017]
|
ESPN |
Foster Farms Bowl (vs. Pac-12)
Dec. 27
|
FOX |
Tier Four2
Big Ten #8-9
|
Quick Lane Bowl (vs. ACC)
Dec. 26
|
ESPN |
28%
|
Armed Forces Bowl (vs. MWC)
Dec. 23
|
ESPN |
Heart of Dallas (vs. Big 12 or C-USA)
Dec. 26
|
ESPN |
At Large
|
Non-Aligned Bowl
|
n/a |
1% |
Notes:
1. The
likelihood of each bowl is a simple projection by
HailToPurple.com. The likelihood numbers are additive. So,
if for
instance the chance for a tier three bowl is given as 10%, that should
NOT be read as saying that NU has only a 10% chance of making any bowl
at that level or higher. To calculate that
likelihood, simply add all the chances above tier three to
it. The sum of all the listed chances equals the projected
likelihood that NU will make any bowl game in 2016. When adding, remember not to
include the likelihood for the Big Ten championship game, since its
chances overlap with the other postseason games. During the
season, this list will change after each game.
2.
There are more bowl games in these tiers than there are Big Ten team
slots. It is likely that a Big Ten team will not be chosen for
both the Music City and Gator Bowls in a given year (in 2017, the B1G
will likely play in the Gator Bowl, not the Music City Bowl).
This is also
the case with the Heart of Dallas Bowl and the Armed Forces Bowl, which
will try to alternate B1G selections.
Northwestern Bowl History
Select a link to view details about NU's 13 bowl appearances, bowl records, and other special games.
|
|
|
