Matchup:  Northwestern Wildcats (7-3, 3-3) at Michigan State Spartans (5-5, 2-4)

Date:  Saturday, November 17, 11:00 am CST

TV: ESPN2

Line:  Michigan State (-7)

  

Walk back from the ledge Wildcat fans, it is not that bad.  Yes, it was a heartbreaking loss but sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.  NU and Michigan were evenly matched and Michigan just caught a very lucky bounce on one play that allowed them to send the game into overtime and win.  NU caught a similar bounce years ago against Minnesota where one Wildcat receiver batted the ball to another one for a touchdown on the last play of the game.

There have been many people on various message boards complaining about poor coaching decisions but in my opinion NU ran the correct strategy in trying to run out the clock.  They got one first down against UM by running the ball and taking the risk to go for it on 4th down.  They ran the clock down to 30 seconds and then punted.  That should have been enough.  The chance of UM coming back and scoring are less than 1 in 10.  Unfortunately that is what they did.  The punt should have been kicked out of bounds to prevent a fluke run back for a score.  It wasn’t and UM ends up with decent field position.  On the Hail Mary pass NU had 2 safeties deep but one went o the left to help a CB in single coverage and the other went to the side with the 3 receivers where the Michigan QB was looking.  As the inside UM receiver peeled more to the center he was covered by a NU DB who had good position.  Both players went up for the ball and knocked it into the air.  It came down and  just happened to bounce ever so softly into the UM receiver's hands.  From that point it was basically game over as UM had the momentum and finished NU off in OT.

For the people complaining about Fitz I wonder how they justify their expectations.  NU is never going to be a year in, year out, football powerhouse.  NU has academic standards that the football players have to meet, NU’s cost prevents many marginal football players, who may turn out to be great, from enrolling as students on their own dime and "walking on".  We have a small fan base.  Our facilities are improving but we don’t have the limitless funds generated by having 100,000+ paying fans 7 Saturdays each fall.  Fitz is a good coach for NU.  Why?  He knows the game of football, is intelligent, is an NU alum, and is SUPER enthusiastic?  Not enough for you?  Chew on this.  Fitz and company are NOT going to “out coach” the opposing team each week.  The opposing coaches are also very good.  All of them have more experience than Fitz.  Fitz also has had a very limited amount of networking.  He has not been on many staffs other than his own.  He doesn’t have a lot of coaches to call on for reference, but I still think he is the best NU will ever have and I hope he stays for a looooooooong time.  “Replace him with a rising star asst coach” you say.  Ask Tennessee how that is going.  They hire Lane Kiffin.  He turns out to be a good coach though you would not trust him any further than you could throw him.  He leaves after 1 year.  They hire Derek Dooley.  Good family name, coached under Nick Saban.  He has not recruited well and his game day coaching is poor.  Tennessee is on the verge of their second year in a row of staying home for the Holidays.  Dooley will be gone before Tork finishes the Turkey Day leftovers.  Hire an older experienced coach.  Ask Arkansas how that is going this year.  Or last?  I think the chances of finding a better game day coach than Fitz are 50/50 but  I think the changes of finding a better coach to recruit kids to NU is less than 10%.  Finding a better game day coach, recruiter, and someone who will stay at NU is less than 1%.  If you like those odds follow Kanvik to Vegas and have at it.

On to this week’s game versus Michigan State:  I almost crapped my pants when I saw the line.  I had to read it 4 times to make sure it was correct.  NU is a 7 point underdog to 5-5 Michigan State?  That is friggin’ nuts.  MSU lost to Iowa who is terrible this year.  MSU has a strong defense but they have underperformed this year.  On offense their strength is rushing the ball with workhouse Lavon Bell, but they have a first year QB who has played poor to average so far.  MSU will run the ball but they aren’t strong enough to run all over the ‘Cats.  The ‘Cats defense has done well shutting down opposing rushers this year.  MSU’s QB is not strong enough to beat the ‘Cats.  The interesting match-up will be when NU has the ball.  Expect MSU to hit NU HARD.  If Colter and Mark continue to get up after each lick the ‘Cats will be OK.  NU has finally figured out what it wants to do on Offense (run, run, use run to set-up pass).  It worked well against Michigan and it should work against Michigan State.  NU has to watch out for a trick play or two from MSU but besides that NU should win going away.  No 4th quarter collapse in this one as NU outscores MSU by 10 in the 4th quarter to win convincingly.

If not, then we can all commiserate about what a season this could have been. 

Take the points but they are unnecessary.

Pick: NU 30, MSU 17

‘Cats win out and head to Florida to celebrate the New Year.

Season to Date:  Straight up, 9-1; Against the spread, 7-3