|
|
|
jhodges
Game Preview
Posted
10/25/11
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
 
Indiana
Memorial Stadium
Saturday, October 29, 2011. 11:00 am CDT
TV: BTN
WGN 720 AM Radio
Game Preview: Indiana
by Jonathan Hodges
The Northwestern Wildcats (2-5, 0-4) will have a prime opportunity to right the
ship and notch their first Big Ten win of the season as they travel to
Bloomington to face the Indiana Hoosiers (1-7, 0-4) who have yet to win a game
against an FBS opponent under first year head coach Kevin Wilson. During its
five game losing streak, the 'Cats have lost by an average of 9.6 points per
game and have been in every game into the fourth quarter with just a handful of
plays deciding each contest. Indiana, on the other hand, have an average margin
of defeat of 16.1 points per game in their seven defeats, including an average
of 31.3 in each of their last three games. Though they seem to be finding a
semblance of an offense with true freshman QB Tre Roberson, they rank 107th in
total defense and 118th (second-to-last) in rush defense and look to be a long
way away from that elusive first FBS win.
But, they certainly know that
this is likely their best shot at a win before the year is done (they must still
visit Ohio State and Michigan State along with a rivalry game against the now
respectable-looking Purdue Boilermakers) and they have played Northwestern
extremely close as of late: NU has won six of the last seven meetings but NU's
scoring margin in those games is just 3.1 points per game. Plus, there was that
infamous upset in 2008. After suffering through the worst stretch of games
since Fitz's first season, though, the Wildcats will certainly take nothing for
granted here.
Indiana's defense is only slightly better than
Northwestern's from an overall standpoint, though NU's pass defense continues to
be porous (ranked 104th nationally in pass efficiency defense) which will
certainly give the Hoosiers a shot to upset the 'Cats unless Northwestern can
put together a full 60-minute effort on defense. Fitz made wholesale personnel
changes last game (some due to injury, some due to performance, plus additional
changes during the game) so expect to see adjustments until he finds something
that works.
And, on the other side of the ball, Northwestern will be
waiting to see if Dan Persa is available to start after experiencing a turf toe
injury (to his left foot, the opposite leg relative to his Achilles' tendon
injury), as he was listed as questionable early in the week. But, NU doesn't
look to be in too bad of shape with him out, as Kain Colter continues to provide
a speedy threat to the opposition as he continues to lead NU in all-purpose
yards (83.6 per game) and has been valuable behind center leading the run-heavy
portion of the offense. And, with Indiana's defense allowing 224.4 yards per
game on the ground, the opportunity for NU to run its way to victory is right
there.
Look for a tough battle between two desperate teams both wanting
to notch their first Big Ten win of the year and to stay out of the Big Ten
basement on Saturday that will likely feature a good amount of offense and
relatively little in the way of defense.
Opening
Line
Northwestern by 9.5.
Who Should
Win
Northwestern. The 'Cats are reeling in terms of wins and
losses, but the fact is that NU hasn't been that far away in any of their games,
with a handful of costly plays (costly swing-point turnovers, in particular)
coming back to bite them. Indiana, meanwhile, just doesn't have the talent or
depth (in particular) to compete and are falling apart at this point thanks to
massive attrition due to injury and players leaving the program. Though the NU
pass defense is particularly bad, the 'Cats at least have some personnel to
adjust and fared rather well in the second half against PSU. Indiana, on the
other hand, just can't stop the bleeding with opponents averaging 5.4 yards per
carry on the ground and 1.6 rushing TDs per game; they just don't have the
personnel on defense to slow down anyone at this point.
Upset
Factor
Indiana has played Northwestern very close in recent games,
even if NU has a significant edge in the win column, and as the 'Cats have seen
this year it only takes a couple of plays to tip things the other way. The
accurate Dan Persa has made a couple of very costly errors over the last two
games in which his interceptions caused large momentum swings that essentially
took points off the board for NU and resulted in touchdowns for their opponents
(both games resulting in 10 point losses). Indiana will be able to move the
ball on offense, particularly through the air, and if they can get a big play
(i.e. takeaway), the Hoosiers are certainly capable of grabbing a win
here.
What to Look for: Northwestern Offense vs. Indiana
Defense
Northwestern's game plan may very well depend on the status of
Dan Persa's aforementioned left foot (turf toe) injury: if he is able to go,
expect to see much of the same offense that the 'Cats have run over the past
four games with Persa in for most plays as the passing quarterback but rotated
out for Colter for some plays in order to invigorate the ground attack (Colter
had a nice 46 yard run against PSU that set up his own touchdown run). If Persa
can't go, it will be interesting to see if the 'Cats stick with the same 2 QB
system but with redshirt freshman Trevor Siemian in place of Persa, or if they
go with a Colter-only offense like NU ran in the first three games of the season
(during which they went 2-1 against much lesser competition).
In either
case, expect to see a good amount of Colter carries as he's the Wildcats'
primary weapon on the ground (leading NU in rushing yards with 421 and averaging
5.5 yards per carry even with sacks included), while the Hoosiers have had
problems stopping the run (118th, or 2nd to last nationally in rushing defense
and allowing over 5 yards per carry). It would also certainly behoove the 'Cats
to get some production out of their running backs, but unfortunately the loss of
Mike Trumpy for the season has begun to hurt NU: Adonis Smith didn't have any
carries in the PSU game due to an undisclosed injury/issue while true freshman
Treyvon Green got almost no production with just 11 yards on 8 carries.
Hopefully Green can bounce back and Smith can get healthy in order to take
advantage of the potential for a big day on the ground. Despite the issues at
RB, though, Northwestern is still ranked a respectable 49th nationally in
rushing offense (just under 170 yards per game).
On the other side of the
ball, Indiana is still searching for answers (much like NU's defense) as they
have started 22 different players on defense so far this season and
currently have four freshmen (three true freshmen) in the starting defensive
lineup. The Hoosiers have had significant issues against the run, as mentioned
earlier, but also aren't significantly better against the pass: ranking 109th
nationally in pass efficiency defense and 107th in total defense (438.6 yards
per game allowed). Opponents are also averaging better than 2 TDs per game
through the air (and that's when they decide to throw the ball, which has been
just 36.3% of the time).
The Hoosiers' most consistent weapon on defense
has been fifth year senior MLB Jeff Thomas, who leads Indiana in tackles (58),
TFLs (8.5), and is second on the team in pass break-ups with 3. Redshirt
sophomore Greg Heban has also been reliable with 6 passes defended to lead the
Hoosiers (2 INTs and 4 PBUs) and is also second on the team in tackles. DT Adam
Replogle is the biggest pass rush threat: he has an impressive 34 tackles (given
that defensive tackles rarely make that many tackles) and leads the team with 4
sacks on the year. Worth noting is that true freshman Mark Murphy will be
making his second consecutive start at safety; the name may be familiar to 'Cats
fans, but his father (Mark Murphy) is the safety that played for the Green Bay
Packers NOT the same Mark Murphy as Northwestern's former Athletic Director (and
former Green Bay Packers President & CEO) who played safety for the
Washington Redskins in the NFL (who knew that there have been at least three
Mark Murphys who have played safety).
Whether Persa plays or not, expect
plenty of running from the Northwestern offense that is certainly ready to take
the weight off of the passing game after experiencing costly interceptions in
each of the past two weeks along with 10 sacks allowed over that same period (NU
is 114th nationally in sacks allowed). The key to a win here will be avoiding a
costly turnover while also methodically driving and putting points on the board
throughout the game.
What to Look for: Northwestern Defense
vs. Indiana Offense
After some early experimentation, Indiana has gone to
true freshman Tre Roberson at quarterback over redshirt sophomores Edward
Wright-Baker and Dusty Kiel (whose younger brother, Gunner, a highly prized QB
recruit - ranked first nationally at the position by some services, famously
committed then de-committed last week from Indiana). Roberson is a dual-threat
QB who performed well last week with 197 passing yards (66.7% completion rate)
and another 84 on the ground (5.2 yards per carry) running the spread offense
with plenty of read option plays to emphasize his ability to run. Northwestern
has had some issues with mobile quarterbacks (Army's Trent Steeleman and
Michigan's Denard Robinson, to name a couple), especially when dedicating a
number of resources to contain them on the ground and allowing them to go wild
in the passing game (Robinson plus Illinois' Nathan Scheelhaase fall into that
category).
NU is somewhat fortunate that WR Damarlo Belcher will not be
able to go for the Hoosiers with an injury, as he is their top receiver this
season (25 receptions) and has hurt NU in the past over three career games (22
receptions for 229 yards and 1 TD). But, Indiana is not devoid of talent at WR
as true sophomore Kofi Hughes has picked up the slack and is tied for the team
lead in receiving yards (286) and TDs (2); Duwyce Wilson offers another tall
receiving threat as he shares the lead in receiving TDs, as does ture freshman
Cody Latimer (another 6'3" receiver). Indiana has certainly seen the tape on
the NU pass defense and will likely try to utilize these taller receiving
threats against the NU secondary early and often.
Though Indiana has
struggled to move the ball (84th in total offense) and put points on the board
(99th in scoring offense) they have players capable of explosion plays, and NU
is certainly familiar with being burned by such plays. After a dismal first
half a week ago, NU settled down in the second half against PSU, allowing just
91 total yards and just one score (on a short field thanks to the interception
return). It will be interesting to see who takes the field for the NU defense,
as Damien Proby remains the listed starter over David Nwabuisi (one of Fitz's
changes in last week's game, though Nwabuisi did come in and tie for the team
lead in tackles as a backup), and David Arnold remains listed at starting safety
(though Jared Carpenter played in a large portion of the game).
The
Northwestern DL has reverted back to its former starting lineup (Tyler Scott
listed as starting DE after a stinger kept him out vs PSU and Vince Browne back
as the starter on the other end), and it will be interesting if they can contain
Indiana's running attack better than they did PSU (who averaged 5.2 yards per
carry, which raised NU's season average allowed to 4.3 without accounting for
sacks). Kevin Wilson remains dedicated to running the ball despite some
attrition at that position (detailed in the injury report later) with Indiana
running the ball just over half the time and having enough success to rank near
the middle nationally with 144.1 yards per game; Roberson should help bolster
their running game as well. Sophomore Stephen Houston leads Indiana on the
ground with 426 yards and a 4.6 yards per carry average, though they mix in
D'Angelo Roberts and Matt Perez as well to keep the unit fresh.
NU is
certainly more comfortable defending against the spread relative to the power
running/play action attacks of Iowa and PSU, and if they can force Roberson to
throw the ball, they will be in a much better position given that he is a true
freshman and will likely make a mistake or two. If the defense can replicate
its performance over the second half of last week's game while also getting some
health (hopefully) in the form of Scott and Bryce McNaul, it should increase
their chances of doing that.
What to Look for: Special
Teams
Northwestern has seen some stellar special teams performances
(Boston College) and some dismal ones (Army), and last week was a bit of a
downswing considering that the 'Cats were poised to pick up some "hidden
yardage" in the return game based on paper. But, as they say, the game isn't
played on paper and instead NU saw themselves get behind the proverbial chain on
returns with PSU picking up some nice gains on kickoffs while NU's Venric Mark
literally dropped the ball multiple times, constraining NU's kickoff return game
(to just 17.8 yards per return); the net result was -10.2 yards for the 'Cats
relative to the Nittany Lions.
To fix that, NU needs to get back to what
it was doing earlier in the year on blocking and get Mark to catch the ball
first before doing what he does best: run. The Wildcats still rank 11th
nationally in punt returns and although they've fallen back a bit on kickoffs,
everyone knows Mark has the ability to take it to the house. Indiana has
allowed a good bit of punt returns (16, compared to just 4 for Northwestern) and
their net punting ranks 90th in the nation. On kickoff returns, they are 50th,
allowing 20.7 yards per return.
On the other side, the 'Cats have
maintained solid coverage teams despite troubles last week (though it's worth
noting a forced fumble and recovery on the opening kickoff certainly got things
started on the right foot): 27th nationally on kickoff return defense and 6th in
the nation on punt returns (0.75 yards per return allowed). Indiana ranks low
in both categories (109th and 89th, respectively) and this will hopefully yield
relatively poor starting position. As in previous weeks, NU P Brandon Williams
must work to eliminate shanks from is repertoire as they are costing the 'Cats
valuable field position and putting the D in more precarious
positions.
Finally, to the kickers: NU's Jeff Budzien got over .500 on
FGs for his career as he made a 25 yarder against PSU (he's now 4-of-7) while
maintaining perfection on extra points (27-of-27 for his college career).
Indiana, though, has a proven commodity in Mitch Ewald, who has hit 82.8% of his
29 career FG tries and is perfect on 54 XPs. With this series almost always
featuring close games, these two kickers may receive some attention; in NU's
case, hopefully Budzien has recovered from some early career
woes.
Miscellaneous Notes
Coaching
Storylines
Former Northwestern Offensive Coordinator (under Randy
Walker from 1999-2001) Kevin Wilson is seeking his first head coaching win over
an FBS and Big Ten opponent, and would certainly like to beat his former
employer. Wilson was the guy who implemented the spread offense at NU and took
it to the next level at Oklahoma before grabbing his first head coaching gig.
Pat Fitzgerald, on the other hand, is still looking to climb up to second on the
NU head coach all-time win list to equal the aforementioned Randy Walker at 37
W's, after having been stuck on 36 for the past five games.
Prior to this
season Northwestern and Indiana swapped offensive assistant coaches. Current
Indiana WR coach Kevin Johns left Evanston after holding that position from
2004-2010 (he was also an offensive graduate assistant at NU from 1999-2001,
when Wilson was the OC), while NU took in former Indiana Assistant Head Coach
and Running Backs Coach Dennis Springer after Johns left.
Finally, former
NU running back Noah Herron (2001-04, NU's fifth all-time leading rusher with
2,524 yards) is currently Indiana's offensive graduate assistant after
concluding his professional football playing
career.
Sacks
NU's ability to rush the passer has been
key this season: Northwestern is 2-0 when it has more sacks than its opponent
and is 0-5 when it has the same number or fewer. This fact has been obvious as
of late: NU generated zero sacks from the second half of the Illinois game
through the first half of the Penn State game, during which time its opponents
averaged 23 points per half of play (which would, of course, translate to 46
points per game, and alone would rank 118th nationally in scoring defense).
Somewhat thankfully, they are facing an Indiana team that ranks 94th nationally
in sacks allowed (2.6 per game) meaning that the opportunity is there for NU to
disrupt the Hoosier offense; if they can succeed, success in the overall game
seems much more likely.
Similar Offenses
Although NU is
on its third offensive coordinator since Wilson left the staff, the scheme is
much the same as it was when he left in terms of the spread with the option
mixed in to bolster the run game. Interestingly, Indiana's offense should be
familiar to NU (at least compares to what it looks like minus Persa): a young
run-first QB (Colter and Roberson) without a feature RB due to injury (NU's Mike
Trumpy and Indiana's Darius Willis are out for the year) and with an RB by
committee approach (both teams have 5 players with 35 or more carries) and a
spotty offensive line despite some experience (NU: 2 seniors, 2 juniors, 1
redshirt freshman who have allowed 3.4 sacks per game; Indiana: 2 seniors, 1
junior, 2 freshmen who have allowed 2.6 sacks per game). With both teams facing
each other's respective porous defenses, it will be interesting to see how
similar their performances look on Saturday.
Injury
Report
Northwestern
RB Mike Trumpy (out for season,
knee), WR Tony Jones (doubtful, leg), DE Tyler Scott (questionable, stinger), LB
Bryce McNaul (questionable, back), QB Dan Persa (questionable,
turf toe).
Unfortunately, Northwestern expereinced a couple of dings over
the past week, with Scott getting a stinger during practice forcing him to sit
out against PSU (he was indeed missed with NU having its worst showing of the
year against the run). McNaul was also out with a back injury. Finally, and
likely most importantly, Persa came out with an injury to his left foot (on the
opposite leg relative to his Achilles' tendon injury) and was listed as
questionable on Monday, though Fitz noted he was walking around and feeling
better though he is in a walking boot.
Indiana
WR
Damarlo Belcher (doubtful, knee), S Chris Adkins (doubtful, knee), DB Donnell
Jones (questionable, ankle), DE Bobby Richardson (questionable, concussion), QB
Dusty Kiel (questionable, ankle), S Jarrell Drane (out, ankle), K Nick Freeland
(out for season, knee), OL Josh Hager (out for season, knee), RB Darius Willis
(out for season, knee).
Not listed here are numerous departures from the
team due to various disciplinary or personal reasons, another huge obstacle that
Head Coach Kevin Wilson has faced while trying to turn around the Hoosier
program. In addition to those departures, Indiana has faced a significant
number of injuries to some key players, which has severely hampered their
chances with an already depleted roster. The key losses have been RB Willis,
who was lost at the beginning of the year, and the lingering injury to Belcher,
their top receiving threat.
Prediction
Northwestern
35, Indiana 31
The Wildcats and Hoosiers will continue the trend of
close games in this series as both are able to put up big offensive numbers
against each teams' relatively porous defenses. Whether Persa plays or not, NU
will focus on the ground game and will find success there; meanwhile, Indiana
will try to do more of the same but will find more success through the air with
Roberson. But, in the end, the 'Cats will finally get that big swing play to go
in their favor as they grab a key takeaway and/or gain an edge in the return
game that propels them to a close win, keeping their very dim bowl hopes
alive.
Go 'Cats!!!
e-mail: j-hodges@alumni.northwestern.edu
Previous jhodges commentary
|
|
|
