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jhodges
Game Preview
Posted
10/13/11
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Iowa
Kinnick Stadium
Saturday, October 15, 2011. 6:00 pm CDT
TV: BTN
WGN 720 AM Radio
Game Preview: Iowa
by Jonathan Hodges
The Northwestern Wildcats (2-3, 0-2) will look to right the ship against a
second consecutive Legends Divsion opponent, at the hated Iowa Hawkeyes (3-2,
0-1) in the second of three straight Big Ten night games for the 'Cats. NU is,
of course, coming off of two straight blown double-digit second half leads and
will be looking to rack up their fourth consecutive win in Iowa City, where
Northwestern hasn't lost since 2002 (NU has gone 5-1 overall against the
Hawkeyes since that game). Iowa, meanwhile, is looking to turn things around
themselves coming off of a 13-3 loss at Penn State, a series that they've
otherwise dominated as of late (going 8-1 since 2000 until last week's loss).
The fans in Kinnick Stadium will certainly be amped up for this matchup on
Saturday night and both teams will be looking to tally their first Big Ten win
of the season.
This series needs no introduction to fans of either of
these teams: Iowa dominated during the Northwestern Dark Ages, winning 21
straight, until 1995, since when the 'Cats have gone 9-5, including a stellar
4-1 record under Coach Fitzgerald (NU has won the last three in a row, as
well). Although it would be tough to get out of Fitz in front of any media, the
fact is that he circles this game in his mind and certainly enjoys beating the
Hawkeyes. Iowa, on the other hand, has certainly been frustrated by the 'Cats,
including the infamous spoiling of their then-perfect season when ranked No. 4
in the BCS when NU came to Kinnick last in 2009. The Hawkeyes will be looking
to end NU's recent hold on this series much like their stranglehold over Penn
State was ended a week ago in Happy Valley.
On the playing field, this
matchup looks on paper to be significantly different than meetings in recent
past, which have been relatively low scoring (in the last six meetings, the
average score has been 21.0 to 17.7 in favor of the Wildcats). This year, both
teams have struggled on defense (NU ranks 104th in total defense, while Iowa
ranks 66th), while both teams have been solid on offense at times (NU QB an
Persa is his usually efficient self, completing over 72% of passes, while Iowa's
QB James Vandenberg is averaging over 250 yards per game through the air). It
will certainly be interesting to see what transpires on Saturday considering the
history of this matchup, the potential for an offensive shootout, and the fact
that both teams desperately need a win here.
Opening
Line
Iowa by 7.
Who Should
Win
Toss-up. On first glance, Iowa may look like the stronger
team and, being at home, one would think they would have the edge here. But,
Northwestern's record against Iowa (especially with Fitz at the helm) speaks for
itself and the fact is that NU has played pretty well, particularly on offense
(with Persa at QB). Meanwhile, Iowa's weakness this season is certainly their
defense, which ranks in the 60s in rushing yards, pass efficiency, and total
yards. On the other hand, the NU defense has been gashed quite often and the
Iowa offense is nothing to sneeze at: they strive to maintain balance and their
passing game has taken a step forward this year. In a departure from the recent
low scoring affairs between these two teams, this may very well turn out to be a
shootout.
Upset Factor
Even if one team pulls ahead in
this one, anything can happen, as Northwestern has unfortunately found out for
the last two weeks as they watched double-digit leads evaporate in the second
half. This is also evident when looking at this series: last year NU won thanks
to 14 unanswered fourth quarter points, in 2008 the 'Cats used a second half
comeback to win in Iowa City, the Hawkeyes' last victory (in 2007) came thanks
to a fourth quarter comeback, and then there was the magical NU comeback that
got its recent win streak kicked off in 2005 that featured a recovered onside
kick. It will likely be wise to stay with this game even if it looks to be
over.
What to Look for: Northwestern Offense vs. Iowa
Defense
Against Michigan, Northwestern decided to depart from its
previous run-heavy scheme and air it out with the arm of Persa, throwing the
ball on over 70% of offensive downs. Persa didn't disappoint, completing 72.7%
of his passes for over 300 yards. What hurt NU the most, though, was mistakes
by its receiving corps, which is quite unusual given the levels of talent and
experience on that unit; expect to see a more solid performance this week from
the likes of Drake Dunsmore, Jeremy Ebert, and company. Iowa ranks 80th in pass
defense (giving up 235.4 yards per game through the air), and although they have
some playmakers in the secondary (featuring senior CB Shaun Prater), they have
certainly given up some plays (most notably to two of the most offensively apt
teams they have played: Iowa State and Pittsburgh).
Of particular note is
the play in the trenches: Iowa hasn't generated a whole lot of pressure on
opposing quarterbacks (ranking 84th nationally in sacks with 1.6 per game), and
allowing Persa a wealth of time to find an open receiver would certainly bode
well for the Wildcat offense. Unfortunately, the NU OL continues to underwhelm,
even after the offseason shakeup that included redshirt freshman Brandon
Vitabile taking over at center and senior Ben Burkett shifting to right guard:
NU ranks 100th nationally in sacks allowed yielding 2.8 per game.
One
significant factor in that number may very well be Persa's aversion to run after
coming back from his injury (he's been sacked 8 times in the two games that he's
played). He and the coaches have made it clear that they want to protect him by
running significantly less and that means he stays behind the line of scrimmage
and tries to make something happen with his arm even with defenders bearing down
and room to run. Hopefully Persa and the rest of the offense can adjust to this
new style of play (as opposed to what he did last year which included plenty of
tucking and running) and reduce those negative yardage plays.
Senior DT
Mike Daniels may be the biggest weapon on defense for Iowa (he leads the team
with 2.5 sacks and 4.5 TFLs) and the 'Cats' OL must contain the pass rush, as
one significant factor in the aforementioned 2007 loss was pressure on the
quarterback. A great way to keep the Hawkeye defense honest is to mix in some
runs; after focusing on the ground game with Kain Colter at the helm, NU has
done fairly well on the ground even in the past couple of games (against
Michigan NU averaged and impressive 6.3 yards per carry; on the season NU is
averaging 4.8 yards per carry after removing sacks). Colter, Treyvon Green,
Adonis Smith, Venric Mark, and even Jacob Schmidt provide a variety of running
threats that include various skill sets and running styles, and if Northwestern
can get the offense humming in methodical fashion, they can certainly do some
damage.
As mentioned earlier, Northwestern has averaged 21.0 points per
game in the last six meetings with the Hawkeyes, but equaling that average
likely won't result in a win this time around thanks to a Wildcat defense that
looks like the worst since Mike Hankwitz was hired as NU DC. The opportunity to
put up points will be there, though, with Iowa's defense also performing at a
lower level than it has in the recent past. Thankfully this task will fall into
the capable hands of Dan Persa, and 'Cats fans will be rooting intently for him
to continue Northwestern's recent dominance in this series.
What
to Look for: Northwestern Defense vs. Iowa Offense
These numbers are
almost too ugly to analyze from a Northwestern perspective, but we'll give it a
go anyway. The Northwestern defense is in the bottom tier nationally in almost
every category (87th in rushing defense, 97th in pass defense even with Army's 6
yard performance included, 104th in total defense, and 73rd in scoring
defense). The only way that the 'Cats have been able to slow down opponents
this year is to take the ball away (which they've done 10 times), and that was
easily demonstrated against Michigan last week (first half: 3 takeaways and 14
points allowed; second half: 0 takeaways and 28 points allowed).
What's
interesting about the NU defense is that they haven't performed that poorly
against the run. After removing sacks (which would help reduce the number) and
2 extremely long runs (the first play from scrimmage at BC and a garbage time
run by EIU against third-stringers), Northwestern is yielding a solid 3.9 yards
per carry on the ground. And the NU run defense ranks 33rd nationally in
Football Outsiders' S&P+ rankings. This is certainly an improvement over
the final three games of 2010 when the 'Cats let teams run wild on the ground.
In terms of personnel, it all starts up front, and DT Niko Mafuli has developed
into a solid hole-plugger up front while DEs Tyler Scott and Vince Browne have
been good at funneling to the LB corps who have taken care of business in the
tackle department.
Unfortunately, the NU pass defense has been very much
lacking and has allowed teams to do what they want when they want to (except for
Army, who chose to just rack up yards and eat up time on the ground).
Northwestern ranks 105th nationally in pass efficiency defense (11th in the
conference), as teams have chosen to exploit the lack of a pass rush coupled
with a couple of inexperienced defensive backs. Redshirt freshman S Ibraheim
Campbell showed some progress last week with two interceptions, but also took
some lumps including allowing a long bomb jump ball completion. First year
starter CB Jeravin Matthews hasn't picked up the position that well after
converting from offense and continued to give up big plays and was replaced late
against Michigan by junior Demetrius Dugar. Fitz has tried to step up the
competition at both positions with Dugar at CB and a couple of other guys
(Davion Fleming and Jared Carpenter, a former starter) at safety. It will be
interesting to see if this competition and some more experience can help in this
area, as it will certainly be needed against an Iowa team that loves to air it
out.
By concentrating on the defensive backs, though, one misses one very
important aspect that has been missing from this year's defense: a pass rush.
NU is averaging 2 sacks per game, which is respectable, but those have come in
bunches and the pressure has disappeared at times (notably during Illinois'
comeback and during the entire Michigan game, during which time the 'Cats never
sacked a QB). In order to help out the secondary, NU must generate pressure up
front, and much of that duty should fall on senior DE Vince Browne. Many fans
have been calling for Hankwitz to dial up constant aggressive blitzes; this
would surely be counter-productive as it would leave an opportunity for
opponents to run with success more often (negating a positive for the NU D) and
would also leave the DBs on even more of an "island." Note that NU does, in
fact, blitz a fair amount of the time, including with redshirt freshman LB
Collin Ellis, who can hopefully begin to show off after becoming acclimated to
collegiate play.
So, Northwestern is obviously vulnerable to the pass,
and Iowa will certainly be looking to exploit with QB James Vandenberg, who had
a horrible game in relief of injured Ricky Stanzi against NU back in 2009, but
now with much more experienced he looks like a plain different guy. He'll have
a bevy of weapons to utilize, the most dangerous being senior Marvin McNutt who
is on the way to setting all kinds of Iowa records and he's scored TDs against
NU in each of the last two meetings. Other weapons at WR include Keenan Davis
and Kevonte Martin-Manley, both of whom have over 200 yards receiving so far
this season. Iowa ranks third in the Big Ten in passing offense (almost 260
yards per game) and have certainly put up points against any opponent not named
Penn State, who has a defense in another class (they have scored almost 38
points per game in their other 4 games).
And all that goes without
mentioning RB Marcus Coker, who is their workhorse back and averages over 90
yards per game. The Hawkeye offense continues to do what it has for a long
while: base everything on the run with solid blocking up front, and use that to
set up the pass. They'll continue to do that against Northwestern, and the key
for the 'Cats to be successful will be the same as their recipe for success in
the past against Iowa: contain the run and find a way to force turnovers in the
passing game. The big question here is if they can force enough turnovers to
make up for the yardage it looks like they will almost certainly yield; and the
key to that will be regenerating the pass rush up front. If the 'Cats can
muster some defense (especially for more than two quarters), NU will definitely
boost their chances of a win here.
What to Look for: Special
Teams
These teams love to play close games (as demonstrated by the
aforementioned 3.3 average point differential in their last six meetings), and
in close games special teams can be a difference-maker. For NU, kicker Jeff
Budzien got back on the right track by hitting his only FG try against Michigan
(he's 2-for-4 on the year and has hit all 19 extra points), but the story on his
consistency is yet to be written. Iowa, meanwhile, has a solid kicker in their
corner in Mike Meyer, who has an 82.1% FG success rate and 96% XP success rate
(he is 9-for-11 this year on FGs with a long of 50 yards). An edge has to go to
the Hawkeyes for a more established kicker.
On punts, NU's Brandon
Williams took a step forward last week with a solid performance as he tries to
put struggles against Army and Illinois in the rear view mirror (where some
shanks put the NU defense in worse position than one would hope); he is now
averaging 38.9 yards per punt and can certainly improve on that number with more
performances like Michigan (46.7 yards per punt). What certainly helps NU's
cause on punts, though, is their ability to prevent and stop punt returns; they
have only allowed 2 returns on the year (for a total of 3 yards), and the 1.5
yards/return average puts them at an impressive 8th nationally. Iowa,
meanwhile, hasn't done too much on punt returns, ranking 75th nationally; DB
Micah Hyde has punt return duties and he has returned one punt for 30 yards this
year, so NU will have to keep up its stout coverage.
On the other side,
Iowa's defense has benefited from good field position swings thanks to the
nation's 7th ranked net punting; punter Eric Guthrie is averaging a nice 43.7
yards per punt, and they've allowed just 5 returns on the year (for a 5.2 yard
average). The 'Cats will be looking to electric return man Venric Mark, who has
helped NU to a 6th rank nationally in punt returns, to get something going
there; this week Venric stated that he loves the spotlight on punt returns, and
he'll likely have some prime opportunities under the lights on Saturday to make
something happen.
Finally, on kickoffs, NU is once again stellar on
coverage (8th nationally at 17.1 yards/return) while Iowa is middle-of-the-pack
50th on kick returns with safety Jordan Bernstine leading the way with 10
returns this year. On the flip side, Iowa presents an opportunity for Mark to
make something happen as they rank 91st in kick return defense (and have just
one touchback on the season); Mark averages 23.4 yards per return and has a long
of 63 this year (and has taken a kick to the house).
Overall, the NU
special teams are rather solid this year, particularly the coverage teams, and
if they can keep up a solid effort like they put up against Michigan (that
included a blocked FG), they can certainly help tilt things in their
favor.
Miscellaneous Notes
Third Down
Conversions
Not mentioned in the sections above is NU's abysmal
showing on third downs on defense (allowing a 54.8% conversion rate, 117th
nationally, which virtually erases any success against the run they have had)
and bad showing on offense (40.6% or 71st nationally). Iowa, meanwhile, is
converting 43.9% of theirs on offense while the D is almost as bad as NU,
allowing 44.9% (96th nationally). Like some of the numbers above, this, too,
indicates the potential for a shootout (more evidence: the over/under was set at
53.5; the last six meetings have averaged a total of 38.7).
The
Recent Past
NU's last losing record was in 2007, when the 'Cats were
also at 2-3 after five games (in the same pattern of winning their first two and
then losing three straight), but then went on a three game winning streak
initiated by a Big Ten road upset win. The Wildcats will be looking to avoid
their first four game losing streak since 2006, Fitz's first season (during
which they coincidentally beat Iowa).
On the Road at
Night
The last Northwestern Big Ten road night game was against
Minnesota in September, 2004.
Injury
Report
Northwestern
RB Mike Trumpy (out
for season, knee), WR Tony Jones (doubtful, leg).
One
positive after the Michigan game is that Northwestern is finally getting
healthy, and that will certainly help NU as it tries to regain respectability
down the stretch.
Iowa
OL Nolan MacMillan
(questionable, hernia), QB AJ Derby (out, suspended), DB BJ Lowery (out, arm),
LB Dakota Getz (out for season, knee), RB Mika'il McCall (out for season,
ankle), LB Shane DiBona (out for season, Achilles).
Iowa hasn't
experienced a huge number of injuries to their starters thus far; currently, the
most significant issue is MacMillan, who has not yet seen the playing field this
season. The remainder of their injuries are to reserves, which causes issues in
terms of depth and on special teams, but is not as significant as a starter
going down. Worthy of note is that backup QB AJ Derby is currently suspended,
leaving a very inexperienced John Wienke as Iowa's only backup option to starter
James Vandenberg. Also of note, Iowa lost yet another RB to a season-ending
injury with McCall going down early in the year, but in usual fashion whoever is
left has taken over and done just fine (Marcus Coker, their starter, is
averaging over 90 yards per
game).
Prediction
Northwestern 34, Iowa
31
Fitz has a knack for beating Iowa, and I see this trend continuing
thanks to some heroics from Dan Persa and an opportunistic defense that allows
tons of yards but finds ways to get turnovers. Look for special teams to play a
role in this one as Venric Mark energizes NU at just the right time for the
'Cats to pull off a road upset win here to get back to .500 before a key
homecoming date with Penn State next week. Although Iowa will move the ball
well and will score in a relatively high scoring contest, they will once again
fall prey to the Wildcats who somehow have their number.
Go
'Cats!!!
e-mail: j-hodges@alumni.northwestern.edu
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