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jhodges
Post-Game
Posted
10/3/11
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Post-Game Analysis: Illinois
by Jonathan Hodges
The Northwestern Wildcats (2-2, 0-1) and Illinois Fighting Illini (5-0, 1-0)
certainly opened up Big Ten play with a bang on Saturday, with NU building a
28-10 lead midway through the third quarter, only to allow the Illini to fight
back and take the lead in the fourth. The two would exchange blows until
Illinois finally came out on top as Northwestern's last-gasp hook-and-lateral
play failed with Kain Colter failing to get the gain beat out an Illinois
defender, keeping the Land of Lincoln Trophy in Champaign with a final score of 38-35 in favor of the Illini.
NU QB
Dan Persa finally returned to the field, and although he was a bit rusty at the
start, he certainly came on strong as he went 10-of-14 passing for 123 yards and
a career-high 4 TDs passing. Unfortunately, Persa would leave the game early in
the fourth quarter with foot pain and be held out the rest of the way for
precautionary reasons (it was reported after the game that he will be able to
play next week, thankfully). But, the Northwestern offense was not able to move
the ball as efficiently without him the rest of the way, which certainly played
into the conclusion of the game.
But, ultimately, Northwestern lost
thanks to its play on defense, as they allowed Illinois QB Nathan Scheelhaase to
pass like crazy: for 391 yards and 3 TDs, 268 of which went to WR AJ Jenkins
(including all three of those scoring passes). Although the Wildcats generated
some pressure early and accumulated four sacks on the day, much of those came
early in the game, with the 'Cats going into prevent-mode late and allowing a 69
yard game-winning drive from the Illini late while sticking with a three-man
rush that was utterly ineffective. Also, it was clear that NU sold out to stop
the run early (which they did a fairly good job of, holding Illinois to 82 net
rushing yards and 2.2 yards per carry, but that meant there were wide open
spaces in the defensive backfield, with Illinois averaging an impressive 18.6
yards per completion. Ultimately, that strategy coupled with Persa coming out
of the game would be the Wildcats' undoing.
It was certainly an emotional
game with so much back-and-forth at the end and the 'Cats having to deal with
both the gain and subsequent loss of Dan Persa, but Northwestern must "flush"
the game quickly (in Fitz parlance) as they will be visited by a ranked Michigan
squad this coming Saturday night for what should be another tough battle. NU
certainly showed that it can play with just about anyone (especially with Persa
at the helm), although it certainly must make some adjustments on defense in
order to win some games down the stretch.
First Half
Summary
Northwestern QB Dan Persa made his comeback from that
Achilles tendon injury as anticipated, but he certainly had some rust to knock
off early, with NU going three-and-out on its first two drives. The NU defense,
meanwhile, started off pretty well against the Illini; after being torched on
the ground a year ago, they started off their first drive with three consecutive
TFLs, forcing an Illinois punt. On the second drive, they allowed Illinois to
move the ball to within first-and-goal (thanks to Illinois passing and a couple
of costly penalties), but got the ball back thanks to a Brian Peters
interception in the end zone. After NU's second three-and-out, a very short (11
yard) Brandon Williams punt gave Illinois great field position, and they took
advantage with Scheelhaase connecting with Jenkins for their first TD of the day
to take an early 7-0 lead.
But, in a long methodical drive spanning the
end of the first quarter into the second, the aforementioned Persa led the 'Cats
on a 12 play 69 yard drive capped by a TD toss to Drake Dunsmore that tied the
game. After trading possessions through much of the rest of the quarter, NU got
another much-needed spark off of a Illinois fumble (a failed option pitch from
Scheelhaase), that set NU up at the Illinois 36. NU would take advantage, with
Persa finding his favorite target, Jeremy Ebert, streaking across the end zone
to give the Wildcats a 14-7 lead.
Illinois would valiantly attempt to tie
the game, though, by going through the air early and often as they appeared to
get that tie with another Scheelhaase pass, but that was denied thanks to a
controversial pass interference call against the offense (the wide receiver,
Spencer Harris, appeared to push off of CB Jordan Mabin's facemask just before
the catch). That forced the Illini to kick a long 49 yard field goal to pull
within four just before the half.
Second Half
Summary
Northwestern started off the second half by taking the kick
and methodically driving down the field once again, this time with Colter coming
in to spell Persa for a play (he would pick up a first down with a five yard
run), and the drive was capped with a beautiful 39 yard Persa to Ebert pass for
their second TD connection of the day to put NU up 21-10. The zenith of NU's
day would come next, as they forced an Illinois three-and-out, and Venric Mark
provided another spark with a 28 yard punt return that set up Persa to once
again lead the 'Cats down the field starting at the Illini 39. On fourth and
four, Persa made what looked to be the play of the day by escaping two would-be
drive-ending tackles and finding Jacob Schmidt for a first down and more. He
would go on to find Ebert in the end zone for a third time to put the Wildcats
up 28-10 in the third quarter, and things were certainly looking good for NU
with Persa back behind center.
Unfortunately, that's when the breakdowns
on defense began and things started to turn south for Northwestern. Before the
third quarter was even over, Scheelhaase quickly moved the Illini down the field
and found AJ Jenkins again for a 33 yard touchdown as receivers seemed to be
open on virtually every play while the Northwestern pass rush had essentially
disappeared. And at the very beginning of the fourth quarter, those two Illini
would once again hook up, this time for a 50 yard bomb as Jenkins left multiple
Wildcat defenders chasing near the goal line, where he hauled in the pass to
suddenly pull within one score (although the two point conversion try would
fail, leaving NU with a 28-23 lead). The tides certainly changed very quickly,
specifically due to NU's lackluster (to say it mildly) pass defense.
On
the ensuing drive, though, came what looked to be the most severe blow to the
'Cats' chances. As Persa was moving through the backfield to try and avoid a
loss, he was tripped up and seemed to put his feet down awkwardly and would
quickly limp off the field under his own power. Colter would come in to
unsuccessfully try and gain a first down, while Persa would remain out for the
rest of the game with trainers studying his previously injured tendon to confirm
no further damage. (As mentioned earlier, it was reported after the game that
he had experienced some foot pain and will likely play next week but was held
out as a precautionary measure.) Northwestern would be forced to punt, and the
psychological boost from Persa would quickly evaporate for the
'Cats.
While the 'Cats wouldn't give up a huge bomb this time around,
they certainly didn't prevent the Illini from marching down the field and taking
the lead for the first time since the second quarter. Scheelhaase would extend
the drive with five passes for first downs and Illinois capped it off with their
first rushing TD of the day and then convert the two point try to take a 31-28
lead. And, without Persa in, things looked grim for the 'Cats chances of a
comeback with just under seven minutes remaining in the game.
Then came
what would become a controversial drive for Northwestern; controversial in the
play calling. NU was down by three and driving for a game-tying or lead-taking
score late in the fourth, knowing that their defense had been unable to slow
down Illinois for much of the second half. But, trying to play to Colter's
strengths, NU OC Mick McCall dialed up a bunch of running plays; on this drive,
NU ran the ball seven times and passed just once (a 14 yard completion to
Ebert). The most controversial portion of the drive came on third-and-eight
from the Illini 39 yard line. McCall called up a rush from Treyvon Green (who
had an alright day with 67 net rushing yards on 17 carries) which went for no
gain. Northwestern was certainly in four down territory, but a run up the
middle (which didn't work in NU's last game at Army late in the fourth quarter)
didn't seem like the best way to throw the Illinois D off balance. On fourth
down, Colter dropped back to pass, was quickly flustered, and unsuccessfully
tried to scramble for the first down, coming up four yards short.
At this
point, the game looked to be over with Illinois only needing to bleed some clock
and walk away with the win. But, in typical Northwestern fashion, the game
would finish on a much more dramatic note. On the first play of the ensuing
drive, Illinois' Jason Ford would get stripped by Brian Peters on a run up the
middle, with Tyler Scott recovering and giving the 'Cats another chance. Once
again, NU stuck to the ground game, but this time it would be effective as
Green, Colter, and Schmidt would move the ball down to within reach of the goal
line, with Schmidt carrying the ball over the line with a leg-churning six yard
run that used an Illinois defender to keep him from hitting the ground. NU
would go up by four, but there was seemingly way too much time left on the clock
(1:15, with Illinois sporting all three timeouts), especially with Illinois'
success in the passing game.
The Illini would quickly drive down close to
the goal on just four plays thanks to a long pass to Jenkins, a Scheelhaase
scramble, and another costly penalty against the 'Cats. At the NU four yard
line, the 'Cats would try to hold back the tide, but Illinois was just too close
and Scheelhaase was able to get over the line on a QB sneak with just 13 ticks
left on the clock) which put the Illini up 38-35.
Northwestern would get
one last gasp, after returning the kickoff 16 yards and setting up on their own
37 yard line, Colter completed a pass to Ebert, who then would toss a lateral
back to Colter on the other side of the field. Colter had what looked to be an
open field beyond one Illini defender, but he was unfortunately caught by said
defender, and although there was some fumbling to try and keep the play alive,
that was all she wrote for the 'Cats. The Land of Lincoln Trophy would stay
with Illinois for the second consecutive year and Illinois backed up their war
of words on the rivalry front with a victory to boost them to a 5-0 record on
the season.
Player of the Game
Illinois WR AJ
Jenkins (12 catches for 268 yards, 3 TDs; 4 kickoff returns for 60 yards)
Although Scheelhaase deserves a nod for almost 400 passing yards, Jenkins was
most certainly the primary target and beneficiary of those passes and he
deserves credit for exploiting the NU DBs virtually all day by getting open and
hauling in those passes. Take away his effort, and it's unlikely that Illinois
would have been able to stage such a come-from-behind win.
What
Happened
"But, it's not
just a ground threat, but Scheelhaase can also throw, especially when opponents
are getting sucked into the line of scrimmage to defend against the run; he is
completing over 70% of his passes this year and has an excellent primary target
in senior WR AJ Jenkins."
The Northwestern
defense was clearly dead-set on preventing a replication of last year's game,
loading up the box to prevent Illinois from piling up rushing yards. While they
certainly accomplished that goal by giving up just the aforementioned 82 net
rushing yards, this left the NU defensive backs to try and stem the tide, which
was made that much more difficult when the pass rush essentially disappeared.
Scheelhaase ended up completing almost 66% of his passes on the day and gained
passing yards in huge chunks, and Jenkins was the one who racked up most of
those yards. The still-inexperienced Jeravin Matthews was the primary victim on
many of those plays, while redshirt freshman Ibraheim Campbell also played a big
role in the thrashing; one hopes that this will be a growing experience for the
secondary as a whole with so many other potent offenses coming up on the 'Cats'
schedule.
"Hopefully the DBs have had a
chance to improve their technique over the bye week and will be able to prevent
long bombs that have the potential to be devastating."
Yeah, that didn't
happen.
"Look for a significantly
different look on offense for the Wildcats with Dan Persa back at the helm as NU
looks to capitalize on his passing accuracy while trying to mask any lingering
effects of his leg injury."
The NU offense certainly
looked different, scoring almost as many points as they did against their two
2011 FBS opponents combined, and Persa was certainly a huge factor in that.
But, Northwestern definitely tried to keep the ground game going, keeping it on
the ground 76% of the time on the day. One hopes that this was just a
breaking-in period for Persa and the offense and that they can pick things up
even more down the stretch, although this was certainly a promising
start.
"But, it is just too difficult
to put that much faith in a defense that has been shredded by the run game
dating to this matchup last season along with the fact that the Illini seem to
have things going for them on both sides of the ball right
now."
It would certainly have been a stretch to put too
much faith in the NU defense, but this time around it was the pass defense that
failed instead of the rush defense. In fact, it was almost a perfect reversal
(last year, Illinois had 519 net rushing yards and 40 yards passing, this year
they had 82 net rushing yards and 391 through the air). And, unlike last week
when the offense scored just 14 points, 35 points should be enough to win a game
if the defense was able to make even a couple of plays down the
stretch.
Northwestern Honorable Mentions
QB Dan
Persa (10-of-14 passing for 123 yards, 4 TDs 0 INTs; 5 rushes for 14 yards
without sacks) Despite the fact that Persa didn't throw the ball all over
the field and was unable to finish the game, he had a huge impact, throwing four
perfect TD strikes and showing that he is a potent weapon for the Wildcat
offense. Hopefully, he will be able to continue to give the NU offense a boost
for the remainder of his senior season.
RB Mike Trumpy (12 carries
for 63 yards) Trumpy averaged over 5 yards per carry and was certainly a
big reason why NU accumulated a significant lead, but unfortunately he, like
Persa, had to leave (his was a knee injury). He has emerged as NU's biggest
running threat and will hopefully be able to carry the pill for the 'Cats down
the stretch.
WR Jeremy Ebert (5 catches for 68 yards, 3 TDs)
Once again, Ebert did virtually all he could to try and lead NU to a win,
this time catching three touchdown passes from Persa and also making a nice
lateral on NU's last gasp effort to pull out a win. He will likely be a big
factor for the Northwestern offense down the stretch, particularly with Persa at
the helm.
RB Jacob Schmidt (6 carries for 14 yards, 1 TD; 3
catches for 40 yards) Although he doesn't have gaudy stats, his effort was
apparent, particularly on his go-ahead touchdown where he used his churning legs
to find the end zone. He was also stellar as a receiver out of the backfield,
doing very well on screens and also being there to catch that key fourth down
conversion from Persa.
What to Work on
Pass
Defense
The Northwestern secondary got burned quite often, and the
inexperienced Matthews and Campbell were certainly big factors in that. While
Mabin and Peters must also share some of the blame, they both put in a good
amount of effort (particularly Peters, who led NU in tackles with 13 and had an
interception and forced fumble). But, they left receivers wide open multiple
times and failed to hold onto a large lead. There were breakdowns in technique,
questionable strategy, and just plain bad play. While one must not expect them
to be perfect all of the time (especially with a limited pass rush), they should
certainly be able to cover enough to win with such a significant
lead.
Strategy
While some fans have gone a little too
far by calling for the heads of both coordinators (with some even questioning
Fitz), the strategic side can certainly use some work. The defensive strategy
seemed to be working early (by completely containing the run game), but Illinois
obviously adjusted later on. Instead of keeping the pressure on up front, the
NU D almost completely relied on the secondary by rushing only three, and that
plan backfired in a big way. There is now a trend, with both Boston College and
Illinois putting up huge passing numbers in comebacks after NU posted big leads
in both games. On the other side of the ball, NU's insistence on sticking to
the ground (particularly with Colter behind center) has come back to bite the
'Cats for the second straight game. There were indeed errors in execution, but
Northwestern's strategy certainly didn't help matters.
Random
Observations
Turnover Margin
Northwestern has gone 0-2
this season when winning the turnover margin (the 'Cats won it 1-0 at Army and
3-0 at Illinois), while going 2-0 when tying (against BC and Eastern Illinois).
The three turnovers gained against Illinois (which the 'Cats turned into 14
points with the other preventing an Illinois score) certainly helped keep them
in the game, they weren't enough to put NU over the edge (especially with the
defense unable to slow them down on the yardage front). While gaining turnovers
certainly helps, one must still make stops on D to win the
game.
Fitz after Byes
Fitz is now 0-3 after in-season
bye weeks (0-6 if one counts bowl games in those numbers), and remains tied for
third on NU's all-time wins list, unable to tie Randy Walker for second for the
second straight week. While Fitz remains a perfect fit for Northwestern and
isn't going anywhere, many have rightly begun to question his in-game strategy,
as he's given up a 17 point (or greater) lead in a Big Ten game for the third
time since the beginning of last season.
Next
Week
Northwestern will head home for their first game of the year
against an FBS opponent and will host a Michigan team that will travel for the
first time this season (they, like Illinois and Wisconsin, have accumulated 5-0
records entirely at home so far this year). It will be the first time that NU
will face Denard Robinson, and the defense will certainly be in store for a
workout with Michigan coming off of a 58-0 win over seemingly hapless
Minnesota.
Final Thought
For those that are completely
infuriated with Fitz and the 'Cats coaching staff, remember two things: 1. there
are two sides trying to win every game, and the other side has their share of
athletes who can (and do) make plays, and 2. these are college students who can
and do make mistakes. Northwestern is certainly experiencing a disappointing
start to the year, but they have once again been "in" every game that they have
played and have shown the ability to play with anyone with their most recent
performance. Every team they will face down the stretch has shown some sort of
weakness (if not all-around weakness in the cases of Minnesota and Indiana), and
the 'Cats certainly have the ability to rise up and take down almost anyone left
on their schedule.
While we are all disappointed, next week brings a new
opportunity for the Wildcats and NU will most certainly find a way to entertain
us, even if they don't manage to win every time out.
Go 'Cats!!!
e-mail: j-hodges@alumni.northwestern.edu
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