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jhodges
Game Preview
Posted
9/28/11
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Illinois
Memorial Stadium
Saturday, October 1, 2011. 11:00 am CDT
TV: ESPN2
WGN 720 AM Radio
Game Preview: Illinois
by Jonathan Hodges
Big Ten play will start off with a bang for the Northwestern Wildcats (2-1, 0-0)
as they head to Champaign to face their in-state rivals, the no. 24 (AP)
Illinois Fighting Illini (4-0, 0-0) who are coming off of their best start to a
season in 60 years. While Illinois got rolling early with four wins at home,
the 'Cats will be trying to rebound from a tough loss to Army two weeks ago as
they hit the road for the third time in their first four games. Both teams
clearly remember what went down at the historic Wrigley game last November, but
one significant difference this time around will be the presence of NU QB Dan
Persa on the playing field.
That's right, Persa has reportedly been given
the go-ahead to play on Saturday (he'll most likely be the starter), which will
almost definitely give the Northwestern offense (and whole team for that matter)
a much-needed boost after a lackluster performance two weeks ago in West Point.
And the potential is certainly there for the Wildcats to pull off an upset win
over the Illini given that Illinois barely escaped a pesky Western Michigan team
23-20 a week ago that went almost exclusively with the passing game (Western
Michigan missed two field goals earlier in the game that certainly factored into
the outcome).
With the start of Big Ten conference play, though, expect
both teams to come out fired up for this game, and that's without even
considering the rivalry and trophy aspects to this matchup. There will be
intriguing storylines in all aspects of the game: the return of Persa, the NU
defense looking for redemption after being run over by this team last November,
and Fitz still seeking a win that would time him for second on the Northwestern
all-time wins list. Illinois will be looking to continue their best season
since 1951, when they won a mythical national championship, and will also be
motivated to beat the 'Cats due to their annoyance with NU's marketing slogan of
"Chicago's Big Ten Team," something noted both last year at Wrigley and in the
lead up to this game.
No matter what happened in non-conference play, the
Big Ten slate starts at 0-0 for everyone and anything can and will happen in the
conference slate. This should be a good matchup of rivals looking to get that
key first conference win as they match up at the earliest point in the season
since 1998 (when they met on October 3).
Opening
Line
Illinois by 7.
Who Should
Win
Illinois
We all saw what happened last year at
Wrigley Field, and the Illini have the offense weapons to replicate that
performance. QB Nathan Scheelhaase continues to impress, averaging 215.3 yards
per game in total offense this year and hitting on over 70% of his pass attempts
in 2011. Although last year's RB standout Mikel Leshoure has moved on, they
have multiple threats at that position this season with Jason Ford, Donovonn
Young, and Troy Pollard splitting carries. And all of that goes without
mentioning a strong defense that is allowing just 13 points per game through
four games in 2011 and features a strong defensive front that seems to be
replicating last year's performance despite losing some key players to
graduation. Overall, they have talented players on both sides of the ball to go
along with well-designed schemes in those areas as well.
Upset
Factor
Not only is this a rivalry game in which Northwestern surely
has the motivation to pull off an upset, but Dan Persa will be returning which
will certainly give the Wildcats a morale boost (the inverse effect of what we
saw when Persa went down with injury late last season, right before the Illinois
game). With Persa leading the passing attack, Northwestern certainly has a shot
given that Illinois has given up 230.8 yards per game through the air so far
this year, with their last opponent pushing them to the brink with their
pass-heavy offense. Also, the NU D has played well against the run discounting
the Army game, although NU did hold the Black Knights to their lowest total
offensive output of the season. Finally, back to the rivalry aspect, which Fitz
will certainly play up: the 'Cats are 3-2 vs. Illinois under Fitz and are 6-2
since 2003. NU certainly has the ability to pull off a win here as they should
be fired up for this matchup and prepared following NU's off
week.
What to Look For: Northwestern Offense vs. Illinois
Defense
Look for a significantly different look on offense for the
Wildcats with Dan Persa back at the helm as NU looks to capitalize on his
passing accuracy while trying to mask any lingering effects of his leg injury.
That means NU will likely look to pass quite a bit with him behind center, with
a good mix of both short and long passes, while also limiting the number of
designed QB runs and/or option plays. Don't expect him to be a statue back
there, but also don't expect to see last year's version that ran for over 500
net rushing yards in just 10 games.
Also, don't expect to see Persa for
the entire game, either, as OC Mick McCall has already stated that he will be
trying to keep the shifty Kain Colter as a part of the offensive attack. At a
minimum, that means one will likely see Colter taking at least a few snaps,
particularly in the red zone where NU can benefit most from his running ability
(Colter already has six rushing TDs in his young career). Also, don't be
surprised if the 'Cats try to mix things up by getting both Colter and Persa on
the field at the same time to try and keep things interesting (Colter was
practicing at wide receiver before Persa went down with his injury last year and
he also was on the field at the same time as QB Evan Watkins some during last
year's bowl game).
NU would certainly benefit from a strong game out of
the RB position, which really didn't have a chance to get things going two weeks
ago at Army where they accounted for just 59 yards on the ground. While
Illinois' defense is tough to run on (ranking fifth nationally in rush defense
yielding just 56.5 yards per game) thanks to a stout defensive front, NU can
certainly open up things on the ground with an efficient pass game that will
force the Illini to spread things out a little more than they'd like. If the
'Cats can accomplish this and get Mike Trumpy or another RB going, their hopes
for an upset will certainly be much better.
The key to the game, though,
will likely be the performance of NU's offensive line against the tough DL of
Illinois. Although the Wildcat OL had a great first two games, they looked as
though they regressed against Army, even though they physically out-sized the
Army defensive line by a significant margin. That won't be a problem in this
game, though, with Illinois sporting a talented defensive line that includes 305
lb. sophomore Akeem Spence (who has 13 tackles on the year) and a couple of
talented junior ends Whitney Mercilus and Michael Buchanan (who have combined
for an impressive 7.5 sacks and 9 QB hurries this season). It all starts up
front for the Illinois defense, and even though they had to replace NFL draft
pick Corey Liuget, they have seemingly picked it right back up on the DL,
ranking 13th nationally in TFLs and 14th in sacks.
Overall, they
certainly have a stout defense through four games this year, ranking near the
top nationally in most major statistical categories on that side of the ball
(highlighted by the number 11 ranking for scoring defense, allowing just 13
points per game). While it starts up front by applying lots of pressure in the
backfield, the linebackers have certainly done a good job cleaning things up
(again replacing the outgoing star Martez Wilson) with the leader Ian Thomas in
the middle (tied for second on the team with 22 tackles), an athletic sophomore
Jonathan Brown on one side, and converted defensive back Trulon Henry on the
other side. They have certainly opted to go with speed over size at LB (the
starters average 233.3 lbs), and it seems to be working. Finally, in the
secondary, CB Tavon WIlson leads the team in tackles with 24, and the unit has
been making some plays, with 16 passes defended from the group and a 23rd
ranking nationally in pass efficiency defense.
So, how will the Wildcat
offense stand a chance in this one? It will be up to Persa to show off his
accuracy and find the open man: in Illinois' aforementioned game against Western
Michigan a week ago, the Broncos were able to move the ball well at times
through the air and as long as the NU OL can hold back that pressure from the
Illini front seven, Persa will be able to find a man to throw to. Also, despite
all of Illinois' gaudy defensive numbers, note that their opponents' cumulative
records so far are just 8-8, with four of those wins coming against FCS
competition. Northwestern with Persa at the helm should present their biggest
challenge of the year, and one certainly hopes that Dan and his bevy of talented
wide receivers (which will now have their time to shine with Persa back) can
make a dent in Illinois' defensive numbers.
What to Look for:
Northwestern Defense vs. Illinois Offense
Once again, the NU defense will
be facing a formidable ground attack that they must try and contain in order to
give the 'Cats a shot in this one. A year ago, Illinois ran wild on the ground
in a game that I don't need to spend too much time recounting, but thankfully
the main culprit, Mikel Leshoure, is off to the next level. In his place are
the aforementioned trio of Ford, Young, and Pollard, along with Scheelhaase at
QB who will most certainly be intent on running the ball early and often (thus
far in 2011 they have run the ball 70.1% of the time and scored two thirds of
their TDs on the ground). And although their determination to run is almost to
the level of NU's last opponent, the scheme is completely different even though
it does contain some option elements.
Illinois has a big and rather
experienced starting offensive line that averages 308 lbs. and includes two
seniors and two juniors, and is most certainly a big reason behind the Illini
4.9 yards per attempt average on the ground this year. But, it's not just a
ground threat, but Scheelhaase can also throw, especially when opponents are
getting sucked into the line of scrimmage to defend against the run; he is
completing over 70% of his passes this year and has an excellent primary target
in senior WR AJ Jenkins. The Illini pass on average 21 times per game, so they
will present much more of a threat through the air than Army while also
maintaining that big running threat (both Pollard and Young have popped runs of
50 or more yards this year). Needless to say (especially when reviewing last
year's matchup), the NU defense has its work cut out for
itself.
Thankfully, the 'Cats get a bit of a boost on the personnel front
with vital senior DT Jack DiNardo returning, redshirt freshman Collin Ellis
looking to make his debut (he was named a starting OLB before a hand injury in
preseason camp), and David Arnold cracking the two-deep again at safety. The
Wildcats will need all the help that they can get given last year's gashing as
well as last week's result. The key will be for the NU defensive line to apply
consistent pressure in the backfield with the linebackers having to fill in the
running lanes and make the tackle. Against Illinois last November, NU almost
routinely had defenders leaving a lane open, leading to huge holes with a lot of
room to run; and last week, NU's LBs seemed hesitant at times, leading to
openings and missed tackles. Hopefully Fitz has instilled a new attitude into
the front seven during the bye week to address these deficiencies.
The
Wildcats supposedly have some of the best young personnel in some time, and this
will be the game in which they are truly tested. The corps of linebackers in
particular will be tested, and it will be time for the leaders to take care of
business (Ben Johnson, Bryce McNaul) and some of the younger guys to step up
(Ellis, David Nwabuisi).
Finally, the secondary, where Jordan Mabin has
been strong thus far (with an interception and pass break-up) and Brian Peters
has continued to lead by example with 15 tackles and 1.5 TFLs. The key for the
defensive backs will be to provide enough run support while also not getting
caught when Illinois calls up a pass. Look for the Illini to test the still
inexperienced Jeravin Matthews deep with a taller guy like WR Spencer Harris
(6'3") or a bigger tight end like the 6'6" Evan Wilson. Hopefully the DBs have
had a chance to improve their technique over the bye week and will be able to
prevent long bombs that have the potential to be devastating.
Overall,
Northwestern must hope to contain the Illinois running game enough to get off
the field, because if they get the ground game churning, they could very well be
in big trouble much like last game and these teams' meeting last season. This
will be a huge test for Mike Hankwitz's defense and will tell if the 'Cats'
defensive recruiting is up to snuff.
What to Look for: Special
Teams
NU won't get any breaks on special teams with Illinois fielding a
very solid kicker, Derek Dimke, who is a very solid 87.5% on FGs for his career
(and has made all 70 extra point tries), but the 'Cats have somehow projected
bad luck onto otherwise decent kickers so far this season with opponents hitting
on just 1-of-5 field goals this season. On the other side of the ball, though,
NU has had a somewhat bumpy ride with new kicker Jeff Budzien missing on his two
most recent attempts after hitting his first collegiate field goal try at Boston
College. Once again, in a close game things seem to favor Illinois (who
essentially won thanks to superior kicking last week).
In other aspects
of special teams, though, the 'Cats may find some reason for hope. Illinois
ranks a measly 92nd in kick return defense, while the Wildcats rank eight in the
country in kickoff returns thanks to Venric Mark's 28.9 yards/kick average. And
in the punt game, Illinois is 95th in net punting while Mark has once again led
the 'Cats to a 25th national ranking in punt returns. NU can certainly use the
field position boost that these numbers imply, and Mark can certainly give the
team a huge psychological jolt by getting a big return in this game. Look for
this to be a significant factor in the game, especially since Mark looks ready
to go all the way on almost every return.
On the flipside, NU has been
competent enough on coverage teams, ranking 16th on punt return defense and 38th
against kick returns. Meanwhile, Illinois hasn't done anything special in the
return game, ranking below 90th in both categories. Although the 'Cats have
trouble getting the ball deep (Steve Flaherty has only two touchbacks on the
year while NU's net punting is ranked 92nd thanks to some Brandon Williams
shanks against Army), the coverage teams have been very solid in preventing any
returns. Again, this is pretty solidly in Northwestern's favor, and they could
certainly use this to help pin Illinois deep as they will almost certainly
accumulate some yards on offense.
In summary, hopefully Mark can balance
out any field goal kicking advantage for Illinois with some nice returns; a
score on special teams would certainly be a huge boon to NU's
chances.
Miscellaneous Notes
Northwestern after
Disappointing Losses
Since 1995, Northwestern has a 0.564 winning
rate during seasons in which they incur a loss as a favorite; the 'Cats are
0.383 in seasons without such a loss. This of course skews in favor of seasons
in which NU is more often playing as a favorite, and one would expect this
senior-laden team to fare well for the remainder of the
year.
Illinois vs. Fitz
Fitz is 3-2 versus Illinois as
the Northwestern head coach and he most certainly has this rivalry game
"circled" in his head (along with Iowa, of course). Interestingly, in those
five games, Illinois has pretty poor passing numbers: 49.6% completion rate, 1.2
interceptions per game, just 0.6 passing TDs per game, and 139.8 passing yards
per game. While their success running the ball (particularly in the two
Illinois wins in 2007 and 2010) skews the numbers, NU certainly hopes it can
continue this trend in the air.
After the Bye
Fitz is
0-2 in the regular season following an off week (both losses were to Michigan
State at home), and 0-3 in bowl games (after multiple off weeks). But, he has
managed to go 6-0 in season openers (including three wins against BCS conference
opponents).
More NU vs. Illinois
The winner of this
game will take over the lead in Land of Lincoln Trophy wins (currently tied
1-1), and the overall series remains close at 53-46-5 in favor of the Illini.
But, Northwestern has won six of the last eight meetings, and since 2000,
Northwestern has averaged 30.9 points per game against the Illini (fewest was 21
in NU's 2009 win in Champaign).
Injury
Report
Northwestern
DT Brian Arnfelt (out, foot), DT
Jack DiNardo (probable, leg), S Jared Carpenter (out, wrist), LB Collin Ellis
(probable, hand), LB Roderick Goodlow (out, leg), WR Tony Jones (out, leg), RB
Adonis Smith (questionable, ankle), QB Dan Persa (probable,
Achilles).
The Wildcats have experienced more than a few injuries early
this season, but they will likely get some key pieces back for the start of Big
Ten play, with Persa most likely seeing his first action in 2011 (he said last
week that he "would be shocked" if he didn't play on Saturday). Also, key
defensive tackle Jack DiNardo looks to be back which will add some much-needed
depth and experience to the defensive front after missing the last couple
games. It also appears as though Ellis will be ready to go for what will
possibly be his first collegiate action (he is a redshirt freshman who was
slated to start at the beginning of the season), although he is still behind Ben
Johnson on the two-deep (but will still likely make the field at some point).
While Arnfelt and Smith may still be out, getting some of these guys back will
certainly help NU's cause.
Illinois
FB Zach Becker
(out, leg).
One big reason behind Illinois' early season success: lack of
any significant injuries. Becker, the only significant injury, is a backup
fullback who also plays on special teams. While they've had a few minor nicks
through the first few games, they've been running essentially at full strength,
which is in stark contrast to the 'Cats who have been without significant
contributors (starting quarterback, a couple running backs, and two of the most
experienced defensive
tackles).
Prediction
Northwestern 21, Illinois
30
I am very tempted to pick the 'Cats to pull off the upset here
because I think NU will get a huge psychological boost with the return of Dan
Persa and has the potential to get an on-the-field boost from Venric Mark in the
return game. But, it is just too difficult to put that much faith in a defense
that has been shredded by the run game dating to this matchup last season along
with the fact that the Illini seem to have things going for them on both sides
of the ball right now.
This will certainly be a telling game as NU is
looking to recover from last game's loss while Illinois is looking to establish
itself as a player in search of a division title. Look for the 'Cats to be much
more competitive with Persa at the helm and look for both teams to play with
plenty of emotion and fire into this reinvigorated rivalry series that seems to
carry more meaning now than in years past.
Go 'Cats!!!
e-mail: j-hodges@alumni.northwestern.edu
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