|
|
|
jhodges
Game Preview
Posted
10/28/10
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
 
Indiana
Memorial Stadium
Saturday, October 30, 11:00 am CDT
TV: Big Ten Network
WGN
radio internet coverage.
Game Preview: Indiana
by Jonathan Hodges
It's the week before the calendar flips to November, and the Northwestern
Wildcats (5-2, 1-2) are essentially in crunch mode as they head to Bloomington
to face a team that seems to always play the 'Cats close, the Indiana Hoosiers
(4-3, 0-3). Both teams need a win here to stay in bowl contention, and both
teams feature strong passing-focused offenses with playmakers at the skill
positions. The question is: can anyone play defense?
The Wildcats played
admirably against the top 10 Spartans a week ago in Evanston, but finally fell
behind on the scoreboard with just two minutes left to play. Northwestern must
recover from this loss as well as their loss in the game prior in order to get
back in the win column. Indiana, meanwhile, got beat down against Illinois
thanks to a strong defensive effort from the Illini that included two
interception returns for touchdowns. They are looking to put together enough
healthy guys on some units (offensive line and secondary, in particular) in
order to hang onto hopes for a return to bowl eligibility.
While
Northwestern has played a relatively weak schedule so far, they hold nothing to
Indiana, who got all 4 of their wins in non-conference play against some of the
worst competition imaginable. In fact, the Hoosiers' strength of schedule ranks
118th nationally according to the Sagarin Ratings and the teams they have beaten
have won just 4 cumulative games against FBS foes (all from the Sun Belt
Conference). It makes Northwestern's 110th ranked slate and opponents' 6
combined wins over FBS teams look a little more respectable.
As mentioned
earlier, both teams dearly need a win in order to get into bowl contention,
especially since 7 wins will likely be needed to lock up a bid with 10 Big Ten
teams still legitimately in the hunt for bowl eligibility this season. And both
teams have relatively rough finishing stretches as they both face some
combination of Iowa, Wisconsin, and Penn State along with their respective
in-state rivals (who are both in the bowl berth fight as well). This scenario
closely resembles last year, when game served as what was essentially a bowl
elimination game.
To say this game will be a pass-heavy matchup would be
an understatement as it features two top-25 passing attacks and two top-40 total
offenses. NU QB Dan Persa and IU QB Ben Chappell are both generally underrated
passers who rank second and third, respectively, in the conference in total
offense. Neither team runs the ball all that well (Northwestern averages 3.2
yards per carry; Indiana: 3.3), so both are almost wholly dependent on the
passing game in order to move the offense along.
The scales may tip,
though, on defense, where Northwestern holds a respectable edge over Indiana in
most statistics despite facing and generally containing some decent offenses
(biggest accomplishment to date: bottling up Michigan State's running game last
week). Indiana, meanwhile, hasn't really been able to stop anyone and ranks
91st nationally in scoring defense, giving up over 30 points per game, including
allowing 34 to Arkansas State in a close two-point win just two weeks
ago.
But while Indiana looks overmatched in many areas, one needs only to
look at the recent history of these two teams to see how evenly matched they
are. Last year's one-point Northwestern win required a school-record 25 point
comeback in order to pull off the win after falling way behind early. In 2008,
Indiana pulled off a significant two-point upset in Bloomington after NU QB CJ
Bacher and RB Tyrell Sutton both went out with injuries. All in all, the last 6
matchups have been decided by an average of 3.8 points per game with two of
those being decided in overtime. History indicates that this will be a close
game.
A lot will be on the line on Saturday as these two teams lay it all
on the line on their respective quests to reach the postseason. Things will get
much tougher for each of them down the stretch, so they both know how important
it is to take this game. Expect an entertaining and hard-fought game with a lot
of passes, which should provide great programming for the Big Ten Network, as
this is the only football matchup on the BTN this week.
Opening
Line
Northwestern by 3.
Who Should
Win
Northwestern. The offenses are essentially a draw. But the
'Cats hold the edge on defenses, as they've actually been able to contain teams
this year, particularly passing offenses. NU ranks a decent 45th in passing
efficiency defense while IU ranks a rather miserable 104th, which sure won't
help their cause against a QB like Dan Persa. Also, a variety of Indiana
injuries have depleted some of the relatively thin depth they already had, while
Northwestern has stayed relatively healthy throughout this season. And to add
to all of that, Northwestern is 7-2 in Big Ten road games since the beginning of
the 2008 season.
Upset Factor
Unfortunately, one of
those 2 Northwestern Big Ten road losses since '08 came against Indiana. The
Hoosiers have quite a potent offense and have managed to give the NU D fits in
recent times, as IU has averaged 30.9 points per game in their last 10 meetings
with Northwestern. Indiana has talented receivers in addition to Chappell at
QB, and they've also pulled off enough trickery to make them dangerous against
NU the past couple of meetings. They know their collective back is against the
wall for this season, and they'll likely throw it all out there to try and
improve their bowl chances.
What to Look for: Northwestern
Offense vs. Indiana Defense
The NU offense has done a solid job this
season, but has two primary weaknesses: red zone turnovers and closing out
games. On the year, Northwestern has 5 red zone turnovers, most of which
occurred in the shadow of the goal line. And over the past two games, the
Northwestern offense has been unable to muster a game-winning drive despite
holding the ball with a chance to go-ahead late. And the reasons behind those
two issues have been well documented: a general inability to run the football
and pass protection issues with the offensive line (NU ranks 113th nationally in
sacks allowed).
Northwestern fans saw a glimmer of hope in the running
game, though, as both Adonis Smith (4.4 yards per carry) and Mike Trumpy (5.0
yards per carry) put up respectable numbers against Michigan State, combining
for 94 yards on the ground and 0 (yes, that's a zero) yards lost. Dan Persa
continued his elusiveness on the ground, accounting for all 3 Northwestern TDs
in the game and running for 81 yards after removing sacks. Finally, the 'Cats
finally got a long run from scrimmage, a 29-yard end-around from Venric Mark,
something that will likely continue to be included in the NU arsenal at the very
least as a decoy.
The Wildcats couldn't ask for a much better opponent on
defense in order to get back into the win column, though, as IU ranks 106th
nationally in sacks and 107th nationally in TFLs, meaning the 'Cats' offensive
line should have an easier time keeping defenders out of the backfield. And Dan
Persa must be licking his chops to put his 8th ranked 164.3 pass efficiency
rating up against Indiana's 104th ranked pass efficiency defense (147.5). The
Hoosiers are allowing 7.6 yards per pass attempt, while the 'Cats are raking in
a nice 9.0 yards per attempt, meaning that NU should be able to move the ball
through the air with relative ease.
And that's without even considering
the ground game: Indiana ranks 84th nationally in rushing defense and is giving
up 5.5 yards per carry. Expect the 'Cats to have one of their most balanced
games of the season, as both Smith and Trumpy will be given ample opportunities
to try and win the game on the ground. Even if that doesn't work, the
aforementioned pass numbers heavily favor the 'Cats. This combination should
help alleviate the two major issues affecting the NU offense, although everyone
knows it all comes down to execution on Saturday.
On defense, Indiana
features a trio of solid linebackers, including senior Tyler Relpogle, who leads
the team in tackles with 50. The 'Cats would be wise to avoid senior
WR-turned-safety Mitchell Evans who leads the team in both interceptions (3) and
pass break-ups (2); he was forced to switch positions after IU experienced
significant attrition in the secondary: although there is a large amount of
seniority on defense for the Hoosiers, the starting experience prior to this
season just isn't there. Finally, the defensive line has been lacking severely
after Indiana lost seniors Greg Middleton and Jammie Kirlew to
graduation.
This game presents an excellent opportunity for the Wildcats
to move down the field early and often while also getting their running game in
gear. The best thing that NU can do is play disciplined football and avoid
costly errors that they've experienced over the past few games like getting
behind the chains on penalties and turning the ball over in the red zone. If
they can do that and continue executing as they have all season, led by Persa,
expect good things come Saturday.
What to Look for:
Northwestern Defense vs. Indiana Offense
The Northwestern defense has
played a lot of bend-but-don't-break D so far this season: they rank a
not-so-great 67th in total defense (yielding 371.1 yards per game) but sport the
40th ranked scoring defense, giving up 20.7 points per game. They've only given
up more than 30 points once this season: last week against MSU where NU decided
to contain the run at the expense of the passing game. Don't expect a similar
game plan this week as Indiana presents the inverse of last week's dilemma: IU
averages 313.6 yards per game through the air as Chappell has thrown over 300
yards passing in 4 of 7 games so far this year.
Speaking of Chappell,
here's how his stats, specifically TDs and INTs, break down in terms of wins and
losses this year:
Indiana Wins (4): 13 TDs, 0 INTs
Indiana Losses (3):
4 TDs, 6 INTs
As mentioned earlier, the quality of opponents has played a
significant role in those numbers, with the 4 wins coming over a mix of rather
bad teams and the 3 losses coming against Big Ten competition. Needless to say,
generating turnovers by interception is key to beating Indiana. Fortunately,
Northwestern ranks 20th nationally with 10 INTs on the year and, outside of last
week, have generally done a nice job stopping opponents' passing
games.
The thing it looks like the 'Cats won't be able to do is get to
Chappell in the backfield: IU ranks an impressive 17th nationally, giving up
just 1 sack per game, while Northwestern is near the back of the pack at 72nd in
sacks, averaging 1.7 per game. The Hoosiers' pistol offense formation allows
them to keep Chappell closer to the line of scrimmage in order to see things in
the passing game a little different/better and also have a threat of a running
game.
Unfortunately for Indiana, though, their top runner, Darius Willis,
is out with an injury sustained recently. They miss him, too, as he still leads
the team in rushing by 51 yards despite missing approximately half of the season
with an injury. After he went out, they have had to resort to even more
passing, and not always necessarily with the best results. His backup Trea
Burgess does provide some running threat (4.1 yards per carry) but not enough
for the 'Cats to dedicate essentially all the LBs to contain the run game like
they did against MSU last week.
The thing that the Hoosiers do possess is
a quality receiving corps. Damarlo Belcher, Terrance Turner, and Tandon Doss
all have over 35 receptions on the year and all average over 10 yards per
reception and provide solid receiving threats over the entire field. Doss is
also used quite often in end-arounds and other non-traditional running plays; he
has 16 carries on the year (and has a long of just 19 yards, but is still a
threat that must be accounted for). The NU secondary, which was successfully
attacked last year, will have their work cut out for themselves against
Indiana's passing game.
It will be interesting to see if Mike Bolden gets
more playing time at CB at the expense of senior Justan Vaughn as he did for
much of last week against MSU. Although neither played particularly well, it
was clear that Fitz was willing to go with other options when the starter wasn't
playing well, no matter how long they have been with the program. It is notable
that on the other side Jordan Mabin recorded 3 pass break-ups last week, a trend
that will hopefully continue (and maybe turn into some turnovers).
Expect
the Wildcats to play nickel defense a good deal and drop linebackers back into
coverage early and often instead of dedicating more personnel to contain the
ground game. Things will go very well if the 'Cats can force some Indiana
mistakes either by covering well in the secondary or by getting pressure on
Chappell. Also, the coaching staff knows that the NU secondary must be prepared
for this game and it will be interesting to see if that preparation throughout
this week works come Saturday.
What to Look for: Special
Teams
NU K Stefan Demos rebounded nicely last week against the Spartans,
hitting all 3 of his XPs and both FGs in some heavy wind while also booting
kickoffs pretty well and making a big return-saving tackle on a kickoff. After
that, he's a more respectable 10-of-15 on the year for FGs and 18-of-21 on XPs,
with one of each being blocked. Indiana, meanwhile, has had to resort to
redshirt freshman Mitch Ewald after their opening day starter Nick Freeland was
injured. Ewald, though, has been up to the challenge and is 8-of-9 on FGs and
has hit all 21 XP tries. If the game comes down to field goals, NU's opponent
once again seems to hold the edge.
In the kicking game, Northwestern is
improving, especially on returns. The 'Cats rank 68th nationally on kick
returns and have jumped up to 74th nationally in punt returns after getting a
spark last week from Venric Mark (Hunter Bates had a nice return, also). NU
will get an opportunity to do something on kickoffs, as IU's kick return defense
ranks 107th nationally. In the punting game, though, Indiana effectively limits
returns by punting short: while they rank 17th in punt return defense, their net
punting is an ugly 112th, averaging just 31.9 yards per punt.
On the
other side, NU continues to have success in the coverage game, ranking 39th in
net punting (37.9 yards per punt) and 11th in punt return defense. On kickoffs,
Demos has kicked 6 touchbacks on the year and the 'Cats rank a respectable 24th
nationally in kickoff return defense. This will be helpful against an Indiana
squad that features punt and kick return teams that rank in the top half
nationally (53rd and 25th, respectively). The speedy Tandon Doss generally
handles both types of returns and presents a solid threat every time he gets his
hands on the ball.
Last week, Northwestern did a solid job on special
teams (minus MSU's successful fake punt, which was against the regular defense),
and that trend must continue, especially in a must-win road game. The return
teams also present some promise for the 'Cats, who haven't had a legitimate
threat there for essentially 5 years.
Miscellaneous
Notes
Northwestern Road Support
NUMB will be making its
annual away game appearance at Indiana this week, and a contingent of students
and alums will also be there to support the 'Cats as well. Expect to see a
nice-sized NU crowd there to cheer on the team.
Third Down
Conversions
Expect a lot of third down conversions on Saturday as NU
ranks 13th nationally with a 50.0% rate and Indiana ranks 17th with a 49.5%
rate. Fortunately, the 'Cats face a much easier proposition in terms of the
opposing defense as Indiana ranks 61st allowing 38.6% to be converted, while the
'Cats defense is amazingly 11th nationally, allowing a 30.4% rate. It will be
interesting to see if the NU defense can still get off the field against
Indiana's offense.
Turnovers
On the year, the Wildcats
are 3-0 when winning the turnover battle and are 2-2 when either tied or behind
in turnovers. Indiana follows a similar trend, going 2-0 when winning the
turnover battle and 2-3 when either tied or behind. It's fair to say that
whoever can win the turnover battle will likely come out ahead on
Saturday.
More Methodical Drives
If you love long,
methodical drives, this is the game to watch on Saturday. On the year, 26.5% of
NU's drives have been 10 plays or longer, ranking them 1st nationally in that
category, while the Hoosiers rank 4th nationally with a 23.8% rate. Also, both
teams generally avoid three-and-outs and rank in the top 30 nationally in the
fewest such offensive drives. Also, NU and IU rank 60th and 61st, respectively,
in Football Outsiders' Offensive Fremeau Efficiency Index, a measure of
offensive efficiency adjusted for opponent and removing garbage
time.
Injury Report
Northwestern
LB
Roderick Goodlow (knee, out for season), OL Evan Luxenburg (knee, doubtful), RB
Scott Concannon (groin, doubtful), RB Jacob Schmidt (ankle,
questionable).
We'll know more when Northwestern's official injury report
comes out later this week, but the most significant injuries against Michigan
State were Schmidt and Hampton, with both coming out of the game for some length
of time (Schmidt for the remainder of the game after the play in which he was
fumbled/injured). While Schmidt is a versatile back who has been good at short
yardage carries, blocking, and receiving, Mike Trumpy and Adonis Smith seem to
be running the ball better than him right now (and with more ball security), so
don't be surprised to see him on the field for limited snaps even if he turns
out to be healthy. True freshman Hampton got a bit dinged up but is essentially
on the third string of the DL, and isn't listed on the injury report. And there
are some other bumps and bruises that likely won't show up on the report (Stefan
Demos has a bruise on his leg from a tackle and Hunter Bates has an undisclosed
ding) since they stayed in the game last week. Overall, the 'Cats are still in
rather good health.
Indiana
RB Darius Willis (leg, out
for season), RB Nick Turner (concussion, questionable), K Nick Freeland (hip,
questionable), OL James Brewer (ankle, questionable), DB Lenyatta Kiles (groin,
questionable), S Chris Adkins (ankle, out), OL Josh Hager (knee, out for
season), DB Richard Council (knee, out).
The Hoosiers have been dinged up
quite a bit, particularly at OL where they have lost two starters in recent
weeks, as well as the defensive backfield where they had some offseason
attrition in addition to injuries during the season. Also, their most dangerous
running threat, Willis, is out for the year and one of the backups, Turner, is
dinged up. Plus, their solid placekicker is out, leaving a redshirt freshman to
take care of those duties. Injuries in all three phases present opportunities
for the 'Cats to get favorable matchups against
backups.
Prediction
Northwestern 34, Indiana 26
I fully expect this one to fulfill all the predictions of a shootout,
but I predict the 'Cats to come out on top, avoiding their first 3 game losing
streak since September 2007 and attaining bowl eligibility for a fourth
consecutive season. Northwestern will generate turnovers and take advantage of
them in order to seal this game. It should be an entertaining contest, though,
with plenty of gun-slinging and some trickery thrown in there for good measure.
And it won't be easy for the 'Cats, since road games almost never are, as they
must stay focused on the task at hand and put together a full 60 minutes of
execution - something they haven't done for weeks.
Go 'Cats!!!
e-mail: j-hodges@alumni.northwestern.edu
Previous jhodges commentary
|
|
|
