Commentary: Is it time for NU to move on from Fitz?
by Jonathan Hodges
Heresy!
Yes, it seems absolutely ridiculous, but I'm going to make a guest
return to HTP almost precisely 10 years after signing off in order to
make such an argument: it may be time for Northwestern to consider who
may come after Coach Pat Fitzgerald.
I
immediately hopped on the bandwagon that fateful summer in 2006 when
Randy Walker suddenly passed, and a young and untested Pat Fitzgerald
was elevated from a positional coach directly to head coach. The fire
and energy were there, along with loyalty to his alma mater, which has
been proven over the ensuing 17 seasons where both higher-profile
schools and the NFL occasionally came knocking. His track record is
well established and virtually unparalleled in Northwestern
Football history: winningest coach, 5 bowl wins, 10 bowl appearances, 2
division crowns, and finished ranked in 5 seasons (with the highest
ranking being 10th).
There
were the initial lumps as he adjusted to becoming a head coach, but
still achieved 4 wins (2 in the Big Ten) in his inaugural season,
despite significant quarterback challenges as NU looked to move on from
a 4-year starter in Brett Basanez. However, he quickly righted the
ship, steadily increasing the wins, with at least 6 in 6 consecutive
seasons, with a 5 year bowl streak that was capped with the 'Cats'
second-ever bowl win in the 2013 Gator Bowl (following the 2012 season).
Then
after a couple of bowl-less 5-7 seasons where karma from a bevy of
close losses seemed to even out, NU found an even higher ceiling: 5
bowls in 6 seasons (with 4 wins!), two 10-win campaigns, and, most
importantly, 2 Big Ten West division championships. NU ended the season
ranked in 4 of those 6 seasons. Additionally, Fitz finally achieved
what has clearly been one of his career goals: an extremely stout
defence (led by then DC Mike Hankwitz) that could carry NU to victory.
However,
one can definitely argue that Northwestern lived and died by its
quarterback play, which is all so common in football given the
importance of that position in today's game and parity in talent across
most schools. Dan Persa, Kain Colter & Trevor Siemian (who remains
active in the NFL!), the all-time leader in wins Clayton Thorson, plus
the one-year wonder Peyton Ramsey. The last of which really
demonstrated the importance, with NU going from a horrid 3-9 in 2019 to
7-2 in the COVID-shortened 2020 season capped with a Citrus Bowl win
and finishing ranked 10th nationally. And, of course all 'Cats fans
know what has happened since: a rotating cast at QB and essentially the
biggest regression since the early 1970s: 3-9 in 2021 and 1-11 in 2020.
That's what I'm here to consider.
There
comes a time in almost every coach's career when they are bound to
become ineffective - it is seen at all levels of the game, and when
coaches stay too long it becomes all too apparent. There are examples
going way back and even more recent (and possibly even current). There
are also ups and downs of each season which may be dictated by luck,
recruiting, the draw of the schedule, etc. How is one to tell which
category Fitz may fall into?
Fitz
has experienced dips, such as the aforementioned consecutive 5-7
seasons in 2013-14, from which NU clearly bounced back. However the
most recent 4 seasons show a different trend - NU is 14-31 in that
span, with only the completely unique 2020 season holding any water
during that span. Fitz (rightly) had a generous extension a few years
ago that keeps his job contractually secure, NU continues to benefit
from a world-class practice facility, and will be attempting to build a
world-class stadium in the near future. However, NU is quickly ceding
ground on the field.
Yes,
NU was competitive in some of the games it lost this season, but the
record was a good indication of the product on the field. Ultimately,
coaches are paid for results. Yes, Fitz does things the right way and
NU wouldn't accept anything else - graduating players, maintaining
academic excellence, keeping everything above-board. However that alone
does not justify a
salary
of $5M+ per year. In a similar circumstance, Stanford's David Shaw
graciously retired this year despite having a slightly better record
than Fitz over the past few years
and achieving a higher level of success earlier in his career (Rose Bowl appearances).
The NU Athletic Department did
acknowledge the general concern, and some
modifications
were made to the staff, so there is something being done, however Fitz
has been through that before. And, the biggest problems of late are
arguably on offense, whose staff is staying in place (though are
relatively new, on NU's coaching time scales). However, NU's current
team is more of a reflection of Fitz himself than of the rest of the
coaching staff: leaning on defense while trying to play it safe on
offense. This formula has worked when the right athletes were available
(particularly on offense, especially at QB), but is now failing the
'Cats on a routine basis.
While the team is not devoid of talent (highlighted
by a highly recruited incoming 2023 class), the team has been lacking
playmakers at the offensive skill positions in particular, and has had
difficulty in plugging losses on defense, particularly after the
departure of the recent group of solid defenders who helped lead NU to
2 division titles in 3 seasons. Additionally, the opening of the
transfer portal has become a net negative to the Wildcats; while it has
brought in at least one high profile impact player (Ramsey), other
incoming players have failed to live up to their potential, meanwhile
NU has lost more than their share of players (most notably Brandon
Joseph to the ever-hated Notre Dame, along with Isaiah Bowser on the
offensive side). While NU has coaching stability, academic excellence,
dedication to its players, and, now, facilities to attract top talent,
they have been bleeding some of that talent out and are arguably still
not bringing in talent to fill the biggest gaps.
Then, there is scheme -
after Walker brought in the spread offense, zone run blocking,
read-option with mobile QBs, and no-huddle hurry-up (all ahead of many
other schools), NU had an offensive schematic advantage that could lead
to the ability to out-score almost anyone and to come back from
significant deficits. While that output was not always sustainable - it
definitely made NU a competitive threat to most other teams. The 'Cats
maintained this approach into the Fitz era with some carryover on the
offensive staff and in terms of personnel, one could see this begin to
fade away as his tenure progressed, with more of a focus on the ground
game and sustained drives, with which NU has arguably become
over-dependent. With a string of talented QBs now seemingly broken,
lack of accuracy and poor decision making now completely hamstring the
offense. There are limited playmakers to break big gains, no real
schematic advantage to throw the opposing defense off track, and no
ability to put up points to purely out-score the competition.
Northwestern can win games in this manner, which Fitzgerald arguably
prefers, it is clearly not a recipe for sustained success. While the
Wildcats have regressed in offensive scheme, others have continued to
progress, well past NU's former standing. Again, this seems to be
intentional and a reflection of the head coach.
Finally, there is in-game coaching -
Fitz has clearly progressed a long way in this regard (for those who
can remember, just think of taking points off the board in the 2007
loss to Duke and the 2006 then-record-breaking comeback loss to MSU),
and he hasn't made as many clear errors in coaching judgment as of
late. His recent penchant of going for it on a relatively high
percentage of 4th downs is also a positive development, in this
writer's opinion (though may also speak to lack of kicking talent on
the roster after having quite solid placekickers throughout the
2010's). However, I'm speaking to something he has never embraced,
which is trying to establish a psychological advantage for his team.
This is something that his predecessors, Gary Barnett and Randy Walker,
did quite well - Barnett in particular (which Fitz experienced
first-hand). While Fitz does work to motivate his teams, he clearly
eschews psychological elements and instead focuses on a strong work
ethic. This has led to extremely streaky behavior both within games and
over time - particularly in the recent past one can see NU squads
collapse within games and go on long streaks (usually losing, such as
the active 11-game loss streak). While Barnett and Walker had their
share of negative seasons (think of 2001-2002 under Walker), they would
ultimately find ways to be competitive and avoid long streaks (on
the other hand Walker was never able to put together a long winning streak,
having never won 4 or more consecutive games during his NU tenure).
This has led to Fitz teams snowballing confidence and, therefore, wins
but, now conversely, finding the depths of possibilities in a
collegiate environment that has a high level of parity (even at the
FCS/I-AA level, as NU knows well, having now lost 3 times to such teams
under Fitz). And, NU players, being quite intelligent, may be more
prone to this streaky behavior than other teams, on average. This may
be the most significant contributing factor and something that is less
likely to change over time.
In
conclusion, should NU consider moving on from Fitz? My argument: yes.
If NU would like to see more sustained winning, that may be the best
option. Now, that of course means finding the right next option (which
is not always the easiest and is good evidence against premature
firings), but maybe someone like former NU QB Mike Kafka who is
coaching one of the most potent offenses at the professional level
would be a good option. Regardless, that person would need to sustain
NU's academic success, continue to do things 'the right way', and build
in the positive direction towards sustained success. It will also be
important to build towards potential inclusion in the upcoming expanded
12-team playoff; while it was never realistic to expect NU to compete
for inclusion in the 'plus one' 4-team model, they can definitely
compete for a spot in the new model with the right person at the helm.
Of
course that is my supposition but, realistically, will NU ever make
such a change? Certainly not this year (due to the transfer window,
early recruit signing period in Dec, and general state of the game
coaches now must essentially be fired in-season with replacements hired
by early Dec.) and maybe not for another one or two seasons, even at
the 2021-22 level of performance (which NU fans certainly hope does not come
to pass). The closest possible analog may be the aforementioned
situation with Shaw at Stanford where the writing was on the wall and
he chose to move on at his own terms. NU has rarely voluntarily let go
of assistant coaches, let alone the head coach, so this may very well
be a pipe dream.
Ultimately,
NU fans like myself hope that Fitz can help turn things around again
and minimally redevelop a sustained winner and routinely go to (and
win) bowl games. However, as described herein, we may need to continue
suffering through more downs than ups, with the valleys now again
reaching nationally-low depths; hopefully there are some peaks
forthcoming and maybe we can all learn to savor those even more after
becoming accustomed to sustained success without appreciating NU's
longsuffering performance some 30-50 years ago.
Go 'Cats!
Previous jhodges commentary