Matchup: Alamo Bowl - Northwestern Wildcats (9-3, 5-3 Big Ten) vs. Missouri Tigers (9-4, 5-3 Big 12)

Date: Monday,  December 29, 2008, 7:00 pm CST

Television: ESPN

Line: Northwestern (+12.5)


Outlook:

After a season that has to be looked at as a pleasant surprise by even the most ardent Wildcat fans, NU heads to the Alamo Bowl in San Antonio for the second time in their history.  A 9-3 season certainly exceeded most expectations, both in record alone and by being able to overcome injuries.  Any ‘Cat fan being honest with themselves in August would have taken 7-5 and been happy.  To go through the non-conference schedule unbeaten, something that hadn’t been done in 40+ years, and to take advantage as they mostly did of a down year for the Big Ten (although two teams are in BCS bowls), provided for a strong Year 3 for Coach Pat Fitzgerald.

NU should come into this game with plenty of confidence.  They finished the year strong with two victories, are getting running back Tyrell Sutton back on the field from what had thought to be a season-ending injury, and are itching to get the first bowl victory for Northwestern since the famed 1949 Rose Bowl.  The Alamo Bowl for NU is a sound reward for a solid campaign.

For Missouri, their season is one steeped in disappointment.  What had thought to be a season that would culminate in a national championship game appearance and a Heisman trophy for quarterback Chase Daniel, ended with an embarrassing loss to Oklahoma in the Big 12 championship game.  The Alamo Bowl for Missouri would seem to be a consolation prize.

That said, it’s not just frame of mind that shapes the game – it’s also talent, and Mizzou has plenty of it.  Daniel threw for over 4,000 yards, completed 74% of his passes, and had 37 TDs (none of those is a misprint) for a Tiger offense that put up points like it was going out of style.  His primary receiver was Jeremy Maclin, who caught 95 passes for over 1,200 yards and 12 TDs, followed closely by Chase Coffman who won the Mackey award as the nation’s best tight end.

It’s a sure bet that in order to stay competitive, the ‘Cats will have to have their offense clicking and get to the end zone rather than settle for field goals.  They simply will have to score points, and likely more than 30 in order to have a shot at winning.  But it’s the defense for NU that will decide the game.  Without a pass rush to unsettle Daniel, this game could be ugly.  Defensive end Corey Wootton could well be the most important player on the field for the ‘Cats.  Although the NU secondary is much improved over years past, they won’t be able to withstand the flurry they’re likely to see from the Tiger offense without plenty of help from the front four.

On the other side of the ball, NU should be able to take advantage of a Missouri defense that is not nearly as impressive as its offense.  The ’Cats should  be able to move the ball without too much trouble, and if they can keep Daniel & Co. off the field for extended periods of time, they could be in business.  Since a ball-control offense is not the hallmark of NU, this could look like a basketball score by the time it’s finished.

Pick: Bowl woes for NU continue.  Tigers offense too much for ‘Cats.  NU covers, but fails to get the W. 

Missouri 45, Northwestern 38.  Take the ‘Cats and the points.