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Ball State Preview and Prediction
By The Lowes Line Staff
Matchup: Ball State Cardinals (1-4, 0-2 MAC) at Northwestern Wildcats (3-1, 1-1 B1G)
Date: Saturday, October 10, 2026, 11:30 am CDT, Ryan Field (first Saturday kickoff in the new digs)
TV: BTN
Line: Northwestern (-35.5); O/U 52.5
Last Week in Review:
Final: Northwestern 34, Penn State 13. Lowes Line: 3-for-3 (straight up, against the spread, and the over).
Well, the new Ryan Field got its christening, and a game long
celebration ensued. On the 100th anniversary of the Dyche Stadium
opener (a 34-0 win over South Dakota, for those keeping score at home),
the ‘Cats hung 34 on Penn State and sent the Nittany Lions back east
0-2 in league play. Northwestern won outright as a 2.5-point underdog,
and the 47 total points slid just over the 45.5 over/under.
Surprisingly, instead of Chiles finding a rhythm through the air, Chip
Kelly put the ball in the hands of his backs and dared Penn State to
stop it. They couldn’t. Northwestern ran 55 times for 413 yards, 7.5 a
carry and the most by a Wildcat team since 444 against Illinois in
2003. Caleb Komolafe piled up a career-high 188 yards on 25 carries,
and Joseph Himon II needed only 10 totes for 162 yards and two scores,
including a 38-yard burst that broke open a 10-7 game in the second
quarter. Chiles was a tidy 10-of-14 for 93 yards and didn’t need to do
more. Jackson Kleather chipped in a 50-yard field goal, the longest by
a Wildcat since 2002.
And that suspect Cats run defense we were so worried about? It held
Penn State to 48 yards on 22 carries (2.2 a pop), helped along by a
lead that forced Rocco Becht to throw 41 times into a secondary that
picked him off twice, courtesy of Braydon Brus and Robert Fitzgerald.
NU owned the clock 36:05 to 23:55 and outgained the Lions 506-291. Matt
Campbell conceded afterward that Northwestern played the brand of
football Penn State wants to play, and that his team came up short on
effort and toughness. Ouch.
The one sour note: the plan to keep the Big Ten road riff-raff outside
the gates didn’t entirely take. Plenty of sections were filled with
Penn State white, and empty purple seats were scattered around the new
place. Post-game, the architect blamed fans standing in the
concourse. The Wildcat Wall student section, though, was rocking.
Outlook:
“While I nodded, nearly napping, suddenly there came a tapping,
As of some one gently rapping, rapping at my chamber door…”
With Halloween three weeks out, a little Edgar Allan Poe seems in
order, because this Saturday a different bird comes tapping at the door
of the new Ryan Field. This week the Cats avoided being weak and weary
by scheduling a breather from the Big Ten grind as Ball State visits
Evanston for an 11:30 kickoff on BTN. The Cardinals’ chances of flying
home with a win? Quoth the Raven, “Nevermore.”
This one wasn’t originally on anybody’s calendar. Indiana backed out of
its date with Ball State (and owes the Cardinals a $375,000
cancellation fee for the privilege), and Northwestern stepped in with
an $875,000 guarantee, a fitting figure for a school that just opened
an $875 million stadium. The two programs have met only once, a 24-19
Northwestern win in Evanston back in 2015 that was a lot more
uncomfortable than it should have been.
The Cardinals, in Mike Uremovich’s second season, are 1-4 and 0-2 in
the MAC. They opened by absorbing a 56-3 beating at then-No. 1 Ohio
State, beat FCS Stony Brook, and have dropped three straight since
their only win. The Ball State offense ranks 130th nationally at
under 300 yards per game, and the defense is worse: 135th in total
defense at 473.6 yards allowed per game, giving up nearly 230 rushing
yards and almost 38 points a week.
You can see where this is going. A Cardinal run defense ranked near the
bottom of FBS against a Northwestern ground game that just shredded a
Big Ten front is a mismatch of the highest order. Expect Komolafe and
Himon to get theirs early, and look for Kelly to give the passing game
(and Dehnicke in particular) some moderate reps to stay sharp before
heading to the much anticipated matchup in East Lansing. On the other
side, NU’s bend-but-don’t-break defense (103rd in yards allowed, but
just 16.8 points per game) should keep a limited Ball State offense out
of the end zone for the most part.
The danger here is the classic sandwich game: coming off the emotional
high of opening the new stadium and knocking off Penn State, with a
road trip to Michigan State and Fitz on deck. The ‘Cats are also still
on the outside of the Top 25 looking in despite the 3-1 start, so
there’s some motivation to put on a show for the pollsters.
Thirty-five and a half point spread though, is a big number. Kelly’s
run-heavy approach chews clock, and once this one is in hand, Braun may
be emptying the bench with Sparty on the horizon and some injuries
already adding up. A running clock and the second string in the second
half make a backdoor cover by BSU very much in play and should keep the
total in check.
Pick: ‘Cats roll, but the starters are on the sideline sipping Gatorade by the fourth quarter.
Northwestern 41, Ball State 10. Take the ‘Cats straight up, but Ball State and the points, along with the under.
Season to date: 4-0; Against the spread: 1-3.
The Lowes Line is an
e-mailed description of NU's
next
football game, with an invariably fearless prediction of the outcome
and
how NU will fare against what the other "experts" predict. Our
good
friend and Brother Marcus Lowes began the broadcast mailing in 1996.
The crack Lowes Line Staff (alumni Lone Star Cat,
GallopingGrapes, P.S. O'Briant, Eric Cockerill, Joel Kanvik, Charlie Simon, and
MO'Cats) have continued the Line in memory of Marcus.
For
the 2026 season it has returned to HailToPurple.com,
for anyone to enjoy. Thanks to the gridiron brain trust at the Lowes
Line!
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