Lowes Line
Posted
10/26/24

 



 
Iowa Preview and Prediction
 

By The Lowes Line Staff


Matchup:  Northwestern Wildcats (3-4, 1-3 B1G) at Iowa Hawkeyes (4-3, 2-2)
Date:  Saturday, October 26, 2024, 2:30 pm CDT
Place:  Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA
TV:  BTN
Line:  Northwestern (+14.5), o/u 37.5


Outlook:

Gonna cut right to the chase:  I’ve been trying to find reasons for optimism about this game, but, like the NU offense on third down, have been failing miserably. 

Last week’s effort against Wisconsin was incredibly discouraging, as the ‘Cats put up a mere three-spot on the Badgers and a total of 207 yards.  That mess came on the heels of a great and surprising output against Maryland, where the ‘Cats won in a laugher we fans are not used to seeing.  Do I think Maryland and Wisconsin are the same?  No, certainly not, but it looked like NU seemingly forgot everything on the trip home from College Park.

On to Iowa, where the Hawkeyes are having a down year, even after they’ve swapped nepotism for pragmatism at offensive coordinator.  Brian Ferentz, son of Iowa head coach Kirk, had a scoring mandate given to him last season that wasn’t met after several seasons of offensive ineptitude and was shown the door.  In his place is Tim Lester, who has the Hawks scoring nearly a dozen more points a game.

That’s a seismic change for an Iowa staff that rarely sees any.  The defensive side of the ball is where we might actually see the biggest departure from the norm, as the Hawkeyes are not as lockdown as they have been for several years, including laying a stinker last week in East Lansing.  Change doesn’t happen too often in Iowa, as mentioned, and the Hawkeyes could likely get to eight wins again for Coach Ferentz, who hasn’t had a losing season since 2012, and only four in his previous twenty-five seasons at the helm.  Unless something odd happens, such as, and just as an example, the university manufactures some sort of hazing scandal that would elevate a newly-hired coordinator to head coach, expect Ferentz to be on the sideline in Kinnick for years to come.

We’ve seen for years that NU has shown an ability to be resilient, and the better quarterback might actually be on NU’s sideline if you can believe it.  For NU to have a chance at winning, Jack Lausch will need to find success throwing the ball, and the Wildcat defense will similarly need to force Iowa to throw it.  The Hawkeyes’ strength is on the ground, which is the better matchup for NU, even with linebacker Xander Mueller out.  Stopping Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson will be a tall order, and look for the Hawks to run it as much as possible.

Iowa has shown vulnerability on defense in the secondary, and the ‘Cats are going to need a big day from WR Bryce Kirtz to stay in it, especially as NU wideout A.J. Henning will be on the sideline with an injury.  I don’t expect a ton of success for NU running the ball, so the hopes lie with Lausch slinging it about the yard, a phrase that doesn’t seem to coincide with NU gridiron success.

It’s fun to hate on Iowa.  Whether an early Barnett era comment from Hayden Fry, “Hope we didn’t hurt any of your boys,” to a broken leg suffered by Pat Fitzgerald keeping him out of the Rose Bowl, to silly Iowans thinking their version of Maid-Rite sandwiches are the real thing (You got a gum-covered brick wall, bitch? Didn’t think so.).

To be fair, which I hate to do, Iowa has what has become one of the best traditions in college football, as the players and fans at Kinnick wave to the children in the hospital overlooking the stadium at the end of the first quarter.  It’s a very cool and moving sight.  Hoping Kaleb Johnson isn’t similarly waving at the NU defense on his way into the end zone.

Pick:  Don’t see the upset today, folks.  Iowa 24, NU 13.  Take the ‘Cats and the points, along with the under.






The Lowes Line is an e-mailed description of NU's next football game, with an invariably fearless prediction of the outcome and how NU will fare against what the other "experts" predict.  Our good friend and Brother Marcus Lowes began the broadcast mailing in 1996.  The crack Lowes Line Staff (alumni Lone Star Cat, GallopingGrapes, P.S. O'Briant, Eric Cockerill, Joel Kanvik, Charlie Simon, and MO'Cats) have continued the Line in memory of Marcus.  For the 2024 season it has returned to HailToPurple.com, for anyone to enjoy.  Thanks to the gridiron brain trust at the Lowes Line!