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Duke Preview and Prediction
By The Lowes Line Staff
Matchup: Duke Blue Devils (1-0, 0-0 ACC) at Northwestern Wildcats (1-0, 0-0 B1G),
Northwestern Medicine Field at Larry and Sharon Martin Stadium, Evanston, IL
Date: Friday, September 6, 2024, 8:00 pm CDT
TV: FS1
Line: Northwestern (-2.5), o/u: 37.5
Outlook:
"It's a win."
That's what NU fans had to be saying to reassure themselves after
Saturday. The best thing about Saturday's season opener were the
frequent shots of the view of Lake Michigan from the temporary stands
at Northwestern Medicine Field at Larry and Sharon Martin
Stadium. Beautiful view, indeed. By far better than (1)
watching the game itself, and (2) the less frequent camera pans to the
half-empty stands on the south end of the Field. Or
Stadium. Or both. Seriously...the place holds but 12,000
fans, give or take, and we couldn't even come closing to filling it on
a warm and sunny late summer afternoon?!
As an aside, what is the maximum density on the number of clauses in an
athletic facility's name? NU, among other institutions, has for
some time had two with the advent of Ryan Field being added to Dyche
Stadium. What's next? The Edwin and Martha Hildebrandt
5-yard-line? The Singh Family Sideline? The James and
Matilda ("Mattie") St. John-Smythe Left Upright in the South
Endzone? I suppose it's great that there are so many people that
want to donate to build facilities for collegiate athletics and they
should be honored in some way, but the paragraph that stadium names are
becoming is getting a little ridiculous.
Back to the rather underwhelming game. Northwestern was able to
throttle Miami of Ohio's usual role as a thorn in NU's side, slightly
edging the Redhawks in the time-of-possession battle. The defense
seemed to play well, preventing the Redhawks from making any serious
charges and holding them to 2 field goals while managing to even the
turnover margin late in the 4th. Yardage and first downs were
about even, but it was the NU defense's ability to keep the Redhawks
out of the end zone that made the difference.
And they had to, because NU's offense was pretty punchless. As
last week's Line predicted, Mike Wright won the starting job. He
was serviceable, if not spectacular. He hit open receivers and
moved the chains on occasion, but the passes were shorter and there
wasn't much threat downfield. Wright actually led the Wildcats in
rushing, narrowly edging out Porter. The offensive line
frequently failed to protect Wright or open holes for Porter. It
was not an impressive performance.
More concerning on the offensive side of the ball was the two lost
fumbles, one of which occurred at the 1-yard-line as the Cats were on
the verge of scoring. Last season, NU had 1 fumble lost the
entire season. In the first game, they doubled that total.
Not a good look. Friday night, the Cats will have to hold onto
the ball much better and the line needs to find a way to keep the
defense off the quarterback.
Into the Lakefill come the Duke Blue Devils, fresh off their victory
over the overmatched Elon Phoenix, an FCS opponent brought to Durham to
get pounded. Duke doubled NU's points while holding Elon to half
Miami's. There's some mathematical symmetry there, but it
involves fractions and I was a liberal arts major. So I'll leave
the Line faithful to decipher it. Duke was never threatened
during the game, as the Phoenix scored late in the 4th when the game's
outcome was not in doubt. Duke outgained Elon by more than a
2-to-1 margin, yet somehow possessed the ball less than half the
game.
Duke is led by sophomore quarterback Maalik Murphy, and Murphy was the
outstanding performer for the Blue Devil offense. He neared 300
yards through the air and tossed two touchdowns, but he did throw one
to Elon, too. Duke's running game was pretty ineffective, even
against Elon. On the defensive side of the ball, the Blue Devil
front 7 spent as much time in the Phoenix's backfield as some of the
running backs, racking up 8 sacks. Keep your head on a swivel,
Mike Wright!
This year's Blue Devil squad little resembles the team that pasted NU
last season in Durham. Starting quarterback Riley Leonard sought
superior surroundings but, in spite of that, ended up in South
Bend. And head coach Mike Elko did the same, though in spite of
that he ended up in College Station. That must have been a fun
reunion last Saturday night. In comes Manny Diaz and Mr.
Murphy. Thankfully, that might just mean that this year's game
will little resemble last year's lackluster effort.
So how do things play out Friday night on the Lakefill under the
lights? Will NU ride another stout defensive performance,
allowing the offense to slowly find its personality? Or will Duke
come in and turn the Lakefill back in time to the day after 'Dillo
Day?
Much like the opener, I think this game will be tough to watch. I
don't see much excellence on the offensive side of the ball for either
team, Maalik Murphy's near-300-yard performance notwithstanding.
If NU's defense can continue to swarm to the ball and actually tackle,
bend but not break once again, then NU should ride off into the Friday
night gloom a winner. But if last week's defensive performance
was a fluke, and the offensive's precarious grasp on the football
wasn't, then it could be a long night for Willie Nation.
Which will it be?
Pick:
It says here that the Cats hold onto the ball just enough and keep Duke
off the board just enough to hold onto another skin-of-their-teeth
victory, starting Year 2 of the David Braun (the Dan and Susan Jones
Family Head Football Coach) era on the right track. NU 16, Duke
12. Take the Cats and give the measly 2.5 points. And, my
oh my, bet the under.
Season To Date:
Straight Up: 1-0, Against The Spread: 1-0
The Lowes Line is an
e-mailed description of NU's
next
football game, with an invariably fearless prediction of the outcome
and
how NU will fare against what the other "experts" predict. Our
good
friend and Brother Marcus Lowes began the broadcast mailing in 1996.
The crack Lowes Line Staff (alumni Lone Star Cat,
GallopingGrapes, P.S. O'Briant, Eric Cockerill, Joel Kanvik, Charlie Simon, and
MO'Cats) have continued the Line in memory of Marcus.
For
the 2024 season it has returned to HailToPurple.com,
for anyone to enjoy. Thanks to the gridiron brain trust at the Lowes
Line!
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