Matchup: Northwestern Wildcats (0-0) at #25 Stanford Cardinal (0-0)
Date: Saturday, August 31, 2019, 3:00 pm CDT, Stanford Stadium, Palo Alto, CA
TV: FOX
Line: Northwestern (+6.5)
Over/Under: (48)
Money line:  Northwestern (+195), Stanford (-245)


Outlook:

Welcome back, Lowes Liners! This year’s season opener is eight months to the day after one of the most exciting games in recent NU history, as the ‘Cats overcame a 17-point halftime deficit against a solid Utah team to win their third bowl game in a row, capturing the Holiday Bowl in San Diego. 
  
The reigning Big Ten West champion Wildcats return to California to kick off the 2019 season.  The venue this time is Palo Alto, as NU completes its home-and-home with Stanford that started in 2015 with a game in Evanston.
  
The schedule this season is a brute, with six of the first seven games against teams in the AP preseason top 25.  In addition to this week at #25 Stanford, the ‘Cats have #18 Michigan State, #5 Ohio State, and #20 Iowa at home, while traveling to Camp Randall for #19 Wisconsin and Lincoln for #24 Nebraska.  Add to this the annual September inability to show up against non-conference opponents at home, which could make the tilt with UNLV in two weeks more of struggle than it should be, and NU could be looking up at the rest of the B1G West come late October.
  
Fitz needs four wins to get to 100 at the helm of NU.  This is truly a remarkable stat, and one never thought achievable.  Over the course of his 13-year tenure in Evanston, Fitz has three 10-win seasons, four bowl wins (currently three in a row), and has averaged more than seven wins a year.  No other coach in the history of NU has more than 49 wins.  In fact, Fitz has as many wins in his 13 years than the five coaches who led NU in the 28 seasons from 1978-2005.
 
If you’re like me, you cringe at the times Fitz fails to step on throats when he has the chance and put a game out of reach, but you take the good with the bad, and the good has simply outweighed the bad over the past decade-plus.  Fitz has had the uncanny ability to win close games.  Sometimes this is great (see Iowa & Nebraska last year), and sometimes it’s maddening (Rutgers and Illinois).
  
After four years with Clayton Thorson at the controls of the offense, it’s time to turn the page. Thorson left NU as the all-time school leader in nearly every statistical category for a quarterback and stands fourth all-time in Big Ten career passing yards.  Now the reins are turned over to Hunter Johnson, the much-heralded transfer from Clemson we’ve been hearing about for over a year, with three years of eligibility remaining.  Yes, we can all look at the depth chart and see the familiar “OR” with regard to Johnson or senior TJ Green, as Fitz again plays the nonsense game of not naming a starter.  But make no mistake, if NU is going to be successful this year, it’s not with TJ Green under center.
    
Sophomore running back Isaiah Bowser is looking to build on the successful first season he had as the feature back, after being thrust into action due to the injury and subsequent retirement of Jeremy Larkin.  Bowser averaged more than 100 yards per game in his eight starts last year and will be running behind a line that’s lost a few starters.  A notable returning offensive lineman is junior Rashawn Slater, who has started 26 straight games at right tackle and now moves to the left side for 2019. 
  
Senior wideout and co-captain Bennett Skowronek will be the primary target for Johnson.  NCAA rules be damned, Skowronek has surely still not paid for a drink after his catch-of-the-year worthy TD against Iowa last year that helped secure the B1G West for NU. 
   
Defensively, it will be the front seven who set the tone.  Senior Joe Gaziano is the man up front, having recorded 16.5 sacks and 25 tackles for loss over the past two seasons. Brothers Alex (senior) and Samdup (junior) Miller will be anchoring the defensive line alongside Gaziano.
   
Junior middle linebacker and co-captain Paddy Fisher is the heart and soul of the defense.  A 3rd Team All-America last year as a sophomore, Fisher has a nose for the ball, having recorded over 100+ tackles in each of his first two seasons as well as four forced fumbles last year alone.  Juniors Blake Gallagher, who led the Big Ten in tackles last year, and Chris Bergin are the other starting linebackers
  
The secondary is more of a question mark and will be tested right out of the gate against Stanford.  The starting corners are senior Trae Williams and sophomore Greg Newsome II and the safeties are juniors JR Pace and Travis Whillock.  This group tends to be overlooked due to the studs up front who garner the accolades, but their play will be key to the success of the Wildcats this season.
  
So, what are we to expect this year? You have to think more of the same. Chris the Cook changed the Mel-Fry more often than Fitz changes assistant coaches, so we should go by what we’ve seen, which is simply this:  the defense, especially the line and linebackers, will play well enough to keep NU in close games, and the offense will find a way to pull some of them out.  Even if Hunter Johnson is the second coming of Drew Brees, it stands to reason the play calling will continue to focus on running the ball first, and likely a fairly conservative ball-control offense. 
  
Stanford is led by senior quarterback KJ Costello, who threw for 29 TDs and over 3,500 yards last season.  His primary targets will be juniors Connor Wedington and Osirus St. Brown.  Christian McCaffrey and Bryce Love are no longer roaming the backfield in Palo Alto, which is great news for NU fans, but solid fifth year senior running back Cameron Scarlett will be the guy in the crosshairs of the NU defensive front.
    
It will be interesting to see how the Wildcats come out on offense.  Given the athleticism of the Cardinal secondary, running the ball might be the best option. Look for Bowser to pick up where he left off in 2018.  Defensively, there’s a fair amount of confidence in the Wildcat front seven being able to contain the Cardinal rushing attack, but the effectiveness of the NU pass defense will determine the outcome of Fitz’s 14th season opener.
  
In the Fitz era, NU has never lost a season opener on the road, going 6-0 versus Miami (OH) in 2006, Vandy in 2010, BC in 2011, Syracuse in 2012, Cal in 2013, and Purdue last year.  This is a somewhat surprising stat, but one that makes sense when you consider how the ‘Cats tend to play away from home in general.  Maybe they should play every game on the road until October.  I think the successful road season opener trend continues.
 
Pick: ‘Cats don’t get stuck in a tree.  Northwestern 20, Stanford 17.  Take the NU and the points.

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By Galloping Grapes


Matchup:  University of Nevada-Las Vegas Rebels (1-1) at Northwestern Wildcats (0-1)
Date:  Saturday, September 14, 2019, 2:30 p.m. CDT
Place: Ryan Field, Evanston, IL
TV:  BTN
Line:  Northwestern (-19.5) [o/u:  54, money line: NU (-1115), UNLV (+750)]


Outlook: 

Let’s get right into it.  Stanford QB K.J. Costello took one to the chin, the Wildcats took one to the gut, and the Lowes Line bettors took it in the tailpipe.  It was a true shocker in the end.  I’ve spent the last 12 days with a 1-song playlist on an endless loop pounding in the back of my head, and you all know that this time of year my blood runs Deep Purple…


COVER THROUGH YOUR BACK DOOR

(with really big apologies to Ritchie Blackmore, Ian Gillan and Roger Glover)


Sweet Willie was a dancer

That the Lowes Line took a chance at

Because he was a Wildcat

He made electric shadows

Based on our betting tips

But none of us would beat that Line.


We even bet the teaser

Thought the ‘Cats would win a squeezer

Enjoy a little paradise

The lock was in our pocket

Then Hunter met the rocket

We never knew the reason why.


I can't deny it

When the point spread was blown

Oh, it's not the cover

But that we all should have known…


Feel it coming

It's knocking at the door

You know it's no good betting

Fitz doesn’t know the odds

The parlay doesn‘t pay

And now you see the score

And now you're learning

What's knockin' at your back door!


The 2-deep looked so fancy

The money line was chancy

‘Cats were B1G West aristocracy

The bloggers that Fitz toyed with

At closed practice in poor diplomacy.


Stanford’s QB got the quiver

Of a massive forearm shiver

Lost TJ to an injury

So no easing Hunter gently

Thrown in the deep end consequently

Suddenly he looks so young.


I can't deny it

When the point spread was blown

Oh, it's not the cover

It’s that we all should have known…


Feel it coming

It's knocking at the door

You know it's no good betting

Fitz doesn’t know the odds

The parlay doesn‘t pay

And now you see the score

And now you're learning

What's knockin' at your back door!


I can't deny it

With that scowl on my face

Oh oh, that f*ing cover

It was the hard coup de grace.


Feel it coming

Knocking at your door

You know we’re gonna bet the under

Now it's knocking at your door

Ah ha, knockin' at your back door.


ON TO UNLV

Until I started working on this, I had no idea that the Runnin’ Rebels moniker refers to just the UNLV men’s basketball team.  Football and other sports are just known as the Rebels.  Who knew?  Ironic too, as it appears that runnin’ is one of the few things this Vegas team can do well.  The Rebs were a top-20 team last season in rushing, although their star RB graduated.  Still, that dude has been replaced by another good one, junior RB Charles Williams.  He set a school record for rushing yards by a freshman 3 years ago, then sat for a year with an injury.  In two games so far this year, Williams has logged 155 yards/game, for a 9 yards per carry average, and 4 TDs.  He’s got wheels, just the kind of fast and elusive back we hate to see in the open field cutting through the NU defense.  Similarly, the Rebel QB, Armani Rogers, is the kind of run-pass-option guy that we hate to see lining up across from the ‘Cats.  Rogers actually might be a better runner than Williams--but to be fair, for all we know Williams could be the better passer.  Rogers probably isn’t nearly as inept as he showed last week, when UNLV got crushed by Arkansas State.  But if he does get a pass off, his main receiving weapon is a transfer from the USC Trojans, WR Randal “Grimey” Grimes.  He’s not just another runner; he’s a big, tall, strong runner.  You know, the kind we hate to see matching up against the NU secondary.  So, yeah, those are three guys who could hurt the Wildcats pretty badly, and I expect to be shouting “Get that guy!!!” at my television a lot on Saturday.  On the bright side, if the ‘Cats do get those guys, there is not a lot else to worry about.  All NU needs to do is make open field tackles.  Uh, which they seemed to have a hard time doing against Stanford.  Maybe it will settle our raw nerves to look at the other side of the ball…


Unfortunately, that last paragraph might have exhausted my limited football knowledge and insight into the UNLV Rebels for the week.  Or, it’s possible that there just isn’t much to say about the Rebel defense.  That’s good, right?  I guess so, except apparently the big secret Fitz was hiding during spring practice and summer camp was that he and his coaches were farting around with two starting QBs (again), rather than just picking a winner and getting that guy ready.  I will freely admit that Fitz knows more about football than I do about anything, and he’s already earned his on-campus statue, but these mind games aren’t fooling anybody, as demonstrated by the now-annual pooping of the bed in early season non-conference games against opponents who frankly do not give a tinker’s dam about Fitz’s secret strategy.  Hey coach, from the cheap seats behind an anonymous Twitter account it doesn’t seem like coaching genius, it’s looks like onanism.  Maybe it’s not a mortal coaching sin, but it’s become a venial pain in our collective asses.  (Zing!!)


Anyway, UNLV’s defense might suck, but the Lowes Line lacks faith that the Wildcats will take full advantage of that to tune Hunter Johnson up for what promises to be a rough ride once they enter the B1GTen slate.  Much more likely, and frustrating, is that Fitz gives Hunter and the offense just enough reps to start hitting his receivers in the numbers rather than the antlers, then close up the playbook and let the backups smash into the Rebel lines until the clock winds down.  Fitz will be perfectly happy with an ugly and unsatisfying win (see, Rutgers 2018), and will believe (wrongly) that by slowly driving the Porsche with the hazard lights flashing, like Joel Goodson on the way home from the shop after dunking it into Lake Michigan, he’s pulling one over on next week’s opponent from East Lansing.  Of course, Guido the killer pimp still stole all of Joel’s sh*t, sold it back to him and cracked his mom’s egg, and I expect Mark Dantonio and the Spartans to be similarly unimpressed.  Whether that’s all worth it to end up in a tenuous “relationship” with a hot blonde hooker with a train fetish is a philosophical question that exceeds the scope of this now totally off-the-rails preview, but may be revisited if the Wildcats back-door their way into another trip to Indianapolis in December.   Bottom line--sometimes Fitz needs to say what the f*** and see what the Porsche can do.  But I can’t help but worry that we’re going to be screaming WHAT THE F***?!??!?!? more than once this weekend.


Pick:  NU-31, UNLV-17.   Wildcats win, but they drop the soap and fail to cover.


Season to Date:  0-1 ATS (ouch), 0-1 Straight up

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By Eric Cockerill


Matchup:  Michigan State University Spartans (2-1, 0-0) at Northwestern Wildcats (1-1, 0-0)
Date:  Saturday, September 21, 2019, 11:00 a.m. (CDT)
Place: Ryan Field, Evanston, IL
TV:  ABC
Line:  MSU (-8.5) [o/u:  36, money line: MSU (-370), NU (+300)]

 
I apologize for the late Lowes Line.  I only just returned from the land of lingonberries, reindeer, and tall, blond white people and am still catching up.

Recap:  Northwestern captured its first win of the season last week 30-14 over the UNLV Rebels.  The game was close through the first half with the Cats pulling away in the second.  There were several bright spots during the game, including two important ones.  First, two running backs showed promise of depth:  Drake Anderson (146 yard on 28 carries) and Jesse Brown (8.8 ypg).  Second, and most surprising, at appears that Fitz now trusts an actual, real live kicker.  Charlie Kuhbander is building confidence with three field goals, with a long of 44 y.  The not-so bright spots mostly involved a continuing mediocre performance by Hunter Johnson despite a poor opponent.  He did run 10 times for 50 yards plus a touchdown.

Outlook:
This week, NU plays its first conference opponent in Michigan State.  The Spartans lost a close game last week to ASU after previously winning easily against Western Michigan and Tulsa.  The end of the Arizona State game was marred by poor officiating in both directions.  Not much was learned from the first three games, except Sparty is capable of rolling over poorer opponents and played ASU (undefeated) close with a chance to tie as time expired.  That said, ASU is not ranked, nor is MSU.
 
So far, the Spartans have produced a balanced offense and a stout defense.  Quarterback Brian Lewerke, running back Elijah Collins, and wide receiver Darrell Stewart Jr are the leaders on offense.  After gaining a lot of momentum versus their first two cupcake opponents, their offense suddenly ground to a sputtering crawl last week.  Frankly, the Arizona State game is likely more indicative of their future performances than the first two games.

Defensively, they are getting contributions across the board, with defensive end Kenny Willekes leading the way with 4 sacks in the first three games.  Without a doubt the defense may cause problems for NU’s offense.

Meanwhile, in two contests, the Cats have shown that they too have a stout defense, but the offense has not been impressive so far.  The pessimistic view point is that Hunter Johnson simply looks below average with poor accuracy and decision-making.  However, an optimist would say if the problem is a single player, there could be marked improvement on the agenda for the whole offense as that player improves, plus it looks like Fitz has given Johnson the green light to run more if in trouble, one of his relative strengths. 

Prediction:  Expect another grinder in this one as two good defenses muck up the works for both teams.  This game practically screams out for one of Fitz's patented super conservative game plans.  NU is looking ahead to four tough opponents (Wisconsin, Nebraska, Ohio State, and Iowa), so this game should be considered within reach and critical for a successful overall season.  Meanwhile, MSU’s been dealing with some recent bad press, which has their Coach Dantonio’s “Mr. Frowny-Face” visage more grumpy than normal.

The safe bet is a Spartan win, but with a close game anything could happen.  To expect victory, the Cats will need to win the turnover battle and Johnson will need to use his legs to keep the chains moving in critical situations instead of throwing the ball away.  While I think we’ll see overall improvement from the Cat’s offense (which may be tough to see in a low scoring game), unfortunately, I think they fall just short.

 

Pick:  MSU-20, NU-17   Sparty pulls out a big play or two to win, but can’t cover the spread.

 

Season to Date:  1-1 ATS, 1-1 Straight up

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By Joel Kanvik


Matchup: Northwestern Wildcats (1-2, 0-1 Big Ten) at #16 Wisconsin Badgers (3-0, 1-0)
Date: Saturday, September 28, 2019, 11:00 a.m. CDT, Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, WI
TV: ABC

Gambler's Anonymous
Line: Wisconsin (-24)
Over/Under: 45.5
Money Line:  NU +1,100; WI -2,500

Last Week, Today:

The cycle keeps on turning, Northwestern fans.  While top programs in the country are able to reload and avoid ups and downs, Northwestern seems unable to find that magic formula for sustained excellence.  Given what the Lowes Line staff experienced as undergraduates (no more than 3 wins in any season, and one 0-11 campaign), we probably should be positively giddy with what has happened starting with the magical 1995 season.  But, success breeds expectations (as do pithy slogans like "Expect Victory").  Looking back over the Fitzgerald era, NU has had 8 winning seasons, 1 6-6, and 5 losing.  Compared to teams all the way back to Ara Parseghian, that's a pretty impressive run.  Inevitably, though, we cycle to a down year.  That has been true since Barnett.  Most don't realize his first three seasons produced little change from the mythical Francis Peay teams until we snuck up on everybody except USC in '95.  Another good season in '96, but then two losing seasons and Barnett was off to coach in Colorado.  Walker took over, got us back to respectable, but had only 2 winning seasons out of 7 before his untimely death.

Perhaps the good news for Purple Patriots is that our ups are becoming longer, and the lows shallower.  Before this season, Fitz had the Cats bring back 4 winning seasons in a row, and 3 bowl victories in a row.  Our losing seasons have gone from 2-9/3-8 to 5-7.  Not great to end up with a losing record, but at least we are competitive and aren't the doormat of the Big Ten.  Perhaps sustained excellence is just around the corner.  Or, a little less rosy, maybe this is what sustained excellence will look like for Northwestern.  While we won't challenge the 6 rings Nick Saban wears in his extremely creepy Aflac commercial, it beats the hell out of leaving before halftime because the game is already well over, and at least there are tequila shots in the parking lot.  But I digress.

That said, this season has all the markings of a return to the Dark Ages of the Francis Peay era.

Over the last few seasons, we at the Lowes Line have remarked how bland and conservative the Cats' offensive scheme is.  I'm not even sure that "scheme" is the right word here, as it I think its use oversells Northwestern's offensive game plan.  The fact is, Mick McCall's offensive is about as imaginative as a "Three's Company" script.  You know there's going to be some misunderstanding, some slapstick physical comedy by the late John Ritter, and by the end the misunderstanding will get worked out.  At least Randy Walker's offense scared the crap out of DCs around the Big Ten; McCall's...not so much.  In the last 5 years, have you seen a "snap clock" on any NU offensive series?  Perhaps Fitz and Co. aren't recruiting the types of players that can run such a manic offense.  But what is becoming clearer and clearer is that the offensive scheme doesn't put the playmakers we do have in a position to succeed.

Enter Michigan State.  A look at the game statistics paints it to be a far more even contest than the score might lead you to believe.  NU was only outgained by about 70 total yards.  NU actually lead in time of possession.  NU out-rushed MSU.  But Sparty led in one critical stat (besides the score):  turnovers.  NU's quarterbacks threw 3 picks.  As good as a turnover, NU also whiffed on 2nd and goal at the 1, turning it over on downs after 3 attempts to jam the ball in failed.  Good for Fitz for going for it on 4th and 1, but maybe call something that has a chance to succeed against a team known for their physical defense?  Overall, NU ran the ball reasonably well, with Anderson rolling up 91 yards and over 5 ypc, and Bowser contributing 39 more.  Passing...that's where the NU offense struggles.  All eyes are on Hunter Johnson the heralded transfer from Clemson.  But watching closely, Johnson seems to be severely hampered by a receiver corps that cannot get separation from defensive backs.  No matter how good a quarterback you have, if your receivers can't get a step, the quarterback will have impossibly tight windows into which to fit the football.  That's a recipe for incompletions or, worse, interceptions.  And disaster.  31-10.

Despite the statistical parity, the score was another matter and shows just how punchless the NU offense is.  The one touchdown was scored in garbage time late in the 4th, when the outcome was all but written in stone.  Positively, the NU defense kept the Spartans somewhat contained on the ground, allowing 109 yards total to Michigan State.
 

Our Next Opponent:

That one small bright spot on defense becomes pretty important this week, as Northwestern heads north to Camp Randall Stadium in Madison to take on the Badgers.  The Badgers and their faithful are riding high, fresh off dominating the Michigan Wolverines, 35-14.  This Lowes Line staffer was there and, believe me, the game wasn't that close.  Michigan scored its points after the game was essentially over.  Wisconsin built up a 28-0 halftime lead, stretched it to 35-0 in the third before the Wolverines managed any points.  It took Michigan until the 2 minute mark in the 3rd quarter to get their first touchdown, and until under 5 in the 4th to get their next one.  Shea Weber, the transfer on whom Michigan was basing their lofty aspirations (including a national championship) was benched at the end of the second quarter, only to return late in the 3rd when his substitute suffered a concussion on a vicious hit by the Wisconsin secondary.  The Wolverines offense had 3 turnovers, including a deflating fumble in at the Wisconsin 3 as the Wolverines were on the verge of answering the Badgers' opening, smashmouth drive.

By now, we are used to the concept that Wisconsin wants to run the football.  Ever since Barry Alvarez took over the program, they have placed a high priority on having a skilled, big offensive line and gifted running backs carrying the ball through the holes punched the line; that formula even resulted in a Heisman for Ron Dayne.  But, if possible, Jonathan Taylor is even better.  Taylor has over 4,000 yards his first two seasons, and he may be on the way to a third straight 2,000 yard campaign.  Against Michigan, Taylor had 143 yards rushing.  With 2:43 remaining.  In the first quarter.  Whether pounding through the line on the first drive, or running away from the Michigan defense on the third, the Wolverines had no answer for Taylor.  Taylor ended with over 200 yards rushing (he left the game in the first with cramps, and played sparingly afterwards).  The rest of the Badgers picked up the slack, rolling up almost 360 yards on the ground.  When needed, Jack Coan threw accurate passes, finishing 13/16 for 128 (a Wolverine fan behind me remarked to his friend earlier in the game, "Why are they even throwing the ball?  It's not like they need to.  We can't stop them.").  Cats fans might remember Mr. Coan from last year's game, which which his mediocre play helped the Cats to beat the Badgers in Evanston.  This year, the Badgers won't have to rely on Coan as much, it appears.  In goal-to-go situations, look for the Badgers to line up 7 (!) offensive linemen PLUS two tight ends...talk about your jumbo package.

The Wisconsin defense was stout against the Wolverines, too.  Michigan gained a paltry 40 yards on the ground, and its leading rusher was the backup quarterback.  Shea Weber posted a subpar stat line of 14 for 32 for 219, with two touchdowns and one pick.  Neither he nor Dylan McCaffrey could keep the Wolverines' offense on the field, as Michigan held the ball for less than 20 minutes.  After the game, Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh admitted, "We were outplayed, out-coached, out-prepared."  He's right.  They were.  The result has led to many thinking the Badgers are the best in the Big Ten.  Despite the result Saturday, I think that's a bit of a stretch.  I think that road still goes through Columbus.

Outlook:

So, what to make of this week's game in Madison?  The key will be Northwestern's offense.  If NU can sustain drives against a resurgent Badger defense, it might hang around enough so it could steal one.  For whatever reason, NU always seems to play Wisconsin tougher than people expect, and NU does have a history of stealing games in Madison.  Drake Anderson and/or Isaiah Bowser need to find creases and pick up yards.  The weak link for the Badgers defense is their secondary, so maybe this is the week that NU receivers finally get some separation and give Hunter Johnson a target he can hit.  Counterbalance that with the fact that the Badgers defense did not give up a point in 2019 until 2 minutes left in the 3rd quarter against Michigan (the scoreless streak actually went back to a field goal given up in the 1st quarter of the Pinstripe Bowl following last season).

If NU can keep its defense off the field by sustaining drives, its defense might hold up for 60 minutes against the monster UW offensive line.  Despite having lost 4 starters from a year ago, the line is still blocking with road-grader efficiency.  And if the Cats can play solid defense and contain Jonathan Taylor, including avoiding one of his 80-yard sprints to the end zone, they might hang around enough to make the Badger fans sweat at the end.

But those are big "ifs".  Too big, I'm afraid.  While I think there will be a letdown after the massive victory over Michigan last Saturday, I don't think this is a trap game for UW (the Badgers line up against Kent State next), so their attention will be fully focused on Northwestern.  NU will put up a valiant effort against the Badgers, but I think the Badgers just have too much power for the Cats to overcome.  Contrary to what Bucky did to the Wolverines, I see this less as a game where Wisconsin jumps out to a big lead and takes its foot off the gas, and more as a game in which the relentless pounding of the Badger offensive line wears down an NU defense that's been stranded on the field too long, and the Badgers pull away in the second half.

Oh, and Fitz, here's some bulletin board material for you:  ESPN's Football Power Index gives Northwestern a minuscule 5% chance of victory.  Cue Lloyd Christmas.




Pick:   Wisconsin 35, Northwestern 15.  Wisconsin has a bit of a lull after its emotional victory, and the Cats play them tough like they usually do, so Wisconsin won't cover.

Season to Date: Straight up (2-1); Against the Spread (1-2)

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By Charlie Simon


Matchup: Northwestern Wildcats (1-3, 0-2 Big Ten) at Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-2, 1-1)
Date: Saturday, October 5, 2019, 3:00 p.m. CDT, Lincoln Nebraska
TV: Fox
Line: Nebraska -7


Last week the Wildcats traveled to Wisconsin to face the #16 ranked Badgers as a 27 point underdog.  As Joel predicted the 'Cats hung tough and kept it close until the second half when strip sacks and interceptions provided the Badgers with 2 touchdowns that NU could not over come.  NU's offense was offensive until it was too late.  NU ran 82 plays but only totaled 250 yards for the day.  Many in the NU media have started again calling for Offensive Coordinator Mick McCall to be fired.  Granted the offense is not imaginative and just barely does enough when they do win (and many times not enough when they don't), but that is what Fitz wants.  He wants his defense to win the game.  If he wanted more from the offense don't you think they would be doing that?  He and McCall have been together now for numerous years.  Firing McCall won't change anything.  And don't even talk about firing Fitz.  As Joel also pointed out last week in this space, Fitz has done at NU what no other coach has ever been able to do.  That is win consistently.  Fitz might not be the best coach but expecting him to outsmart the opposing coaches every week is too much to ask.  Take a look at the coaches in the Big Ten.  Tell me where the weak links are?  Fitz is good and he is the best we could ever hope for.  If you want to see what it looks like when a fan base gets greedy and is not happy with consistent winning take a look at the dumpster fire that is the University of Tennessee in 2019.

After the game and at his weekly press conference Fitz was asked how the defensive players felt since the offense was not doing their part.  He replied that they are pissed about it.  When several defensive players were all asked the same question they had a much more mellow response and said that they just were concentrating on their jobs.  I take this to mean Fitz is pissed.  He knows the offense needs to do better to give the team a chance to win.  I think he will get that message across in practice this week and we will see a much better performance against Nebraska.

Nebraska was throttled last week by Ohio State on national TV.  They will still be thinking about that game this week.  The 'Cats and the Huskers are similar in talent level so it should be a close game but I think the 'Cats figure out a way to win.

Yes this is a year of rebuilding.  We can't all be Alabama but would we really want to be?  You can't take the National Championships without taking ownership for living in Alabama...

GO 'CATS!
 

Pick:
Northwestern 27, Nebraska 24  'Cats win it outright.


 
Season to Date:
Straight up (3-1); Against the Spread (2-2)

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By MO'Cats


Matchup: THE Ohio State Buckeyes (6-0, 3-0) at Northwestern Wildcats (1-4, 0-3 Big Ten)
Date: FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS, October 18th, 2019, 7:30 pm CDT, Evanston, Illinois
TV: BTN (this is utter garbage, the game was moved to Friday night completely for the purpose to fulfill agreement with Fox.  However, given the rainout in NY last night, FS1 will be televising the Yankees final game of the season against the Astros, fingers crossed)

Line: Northwestern +28

Well, we have had nearly two weeks to digest the inedible.  The UNL-NU game was awful to watch and ended with a walk on kicking a field goal to end the game giving the Conhuskers a 13-10 win.  It was ugly and not worth much of a recap.  Smith started at QB (Hunter is a better quarterback with more athletic ability and more skills, do not argue this point.  You are wrong if you think Smith should start).  Bowser is hurt.  The offensive line is bad and our defense is good but not great.  Uggh

This week, Ohio State comes to town.  Yes I purposely left the the off just to annoy my dad and brother.  Ohio State is 6-0 and have humiliated teams like Nebraska, Michigan State, and Cincinnati (who is currently ranked).  They have yet to play a close game winning by 24, 42, 41, 71, 41 and 24.  They score points in bunches and Justin Fields may be the best quarterback to wear the Scarlet and Grey since Art Schlichter.  Their running backs include JK Dobbins (will play on Sundays), Master Teague III (seriously, not only is his first name Master but his father and grandfather also carried the same name) and a freshman named Steele Chambers (wow!).  The WR corps is fast and will be a huge problem for the Wildcat secondary.  Now, we get to the defense.  Chase Young is NOT NORMAL.  The guy is 6’5” and 265 pounds.  He has 8.5 sacks already and this number will go up.  The rest of the DL and linebackers are all supremely talented.  The secondary will again have a 1st round pick this year with Jeff Okudah who will be blanketing Riley Lees all night. 

Ok enough of the Ohio State bragging.  This team is great.  The Silver Bullets are back and the offense is awesome.  Northwestern is going to do the best they can to make this a game.  The grounds crew sent a picture measuring the grass at 9 inches in height.   A former player for the Buckeyes who is currently a BTN commentary mentioned that NU has used this ploy in the past and it was the highest grass he had played on in his entire career.  Can Northwestern slow down the Buckeyes to make this a game, that's the question.   Emotions will run high given the Friday night atmosphere.  The ‘Cats are wearing the grey, black, purple and yellow highlights with gothic letters in hopes of throwing off the Buckeyes (maybe Fields will get confused).  The completely new basketball team will be announced before the game and undergrads attending the game will receive an awesome looking sweatshirt.  All of this in hopes of outnumbering the Buckeye fans in the stands.  Well, the scarlet will be plentiful and points will be the same. 

Pick:  Let’s just hope Hunter does not die
  Ohio State 41, Northwestern 10 Uggh, give the points if you are a Buckeye fan (you know if gambling were legal)

 
Season to Date:
Straight up (3-2); Against the Spread (2-3)

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By Charlie Simon


Matchup: Iowa Hawkeyes at Northwestern Wildcats (1-5, 0-4 Big Ten)
Date: Saturday, Oct. 26 11:00 a.m. CDT, Evanston, Illinois
TV: The Deuce
Line: Northwestern +8.5 (really only 8.5?!?!)

So this is what rebuilding and some bad luck looks like for NU in 2019.  Due to graduation the 'Cats lost their 4 year starting quarterback, their leading receiver, and several multi year starters on the offensive line.  Then their returning superback retired due injuries.  Replacing all those players on offense would be difficult and that is why many at the Lowes Line were just hoping for a 6-6 season.  That is not to be.  The last few years NU has been fortunate to win some of the games it has.  Two great long TD passes are all that allowed NU to beat MSU last year.  NU had to convert several 4th downs to beat Nebraska last year.  Skowronek made a miracle one handed diving catch to beat Iowa (plus Iowa fumbles twice in the last 10 minutes).  This year the luck has turned.  Not during the game but in the injury department.  NU has lost 2 quarterbacks, their leading running back for most of the season, their leading receiver (Skowronek), and two tackles.  NU is just not strong enough to recover from that.  Name another team that could.

Many are critical of the play calling and yes it is very very conservative, but it is not radically different than the past.  The difference is lack of execution and NU just simply has less talent right now than the teams they are lining up against.  The O-line does not give whoever is the QB time to make any reads other than the first option before he is under pressure.  The receivers cannot get any separation.  The running backs are decent but they are undersized and simply running into linebackers bigger than they are.

In last week's game versus OSU the only question was whether OSU would cover, by Halftime.  The answer was yes with a 55 yard field goal right before the half.  Final score 52-3.

The Iowa game is usually a close match between two teams that play similar ball.  Rely on your defense, run the ball, throw to the tight end.  This year it will not be close.  Enjoy Homecoming.  Relieve your glory days as a NU student.  Stay in the Parking lot and tailgate.

Look at it this way.  The young guys are getting experience for next year...

Have a good one and do a keg stand for me.


Pick:  Iowa 34, NU 10


 
Season to Date:
Straight up (4-2); Against the Spread (3-3)

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By Jersey Cat




Matchup: Northwestern Wildcats (1-6, 0-5 B1G) at Indiana Hoosiers (6-2, 3-2 B1G)
Date: Saturday, November 2, 2019, 6:00 p.m. CDT
TV: FS1
Line: Northwestern (+10.5)
Over/Under: (43.5)
Money line:  Northwestern (+340), Indiana (-455)

 

Outlook:

Enjoy a cold beverage at the Huddle.
Dance the night away at 1999.
Order a gyro with extra meat, cheese fries, and a Doctor at Jim’s Char-broil.

What do these things have in common? You could do all of them since the last time Northwestern scored a touchdown.  Not really, but it kinda feels like it though, right?

Don’t say we didn’t warn you.  The Lowes Line from Week 1 gave a glimpse at how tough the first half of the schedule was: 

“The schedule this season is a brute, with six of the first seven games against teams in the AP preseason top 25.  In addition to this week at #25 Stanford, the ‘Cats have #18 Michigan State, #5 Ohio State, and #20 Iowa at home, while traveling to Camp Randall for #19 Wisconsin and Lincoln for #24 Nebraska.  Add to this the annual September inability to show up against non-conference opponents at home, which could make the tilt with UNLV in two weeks more of struggle than it should be, and NU could be looking up at the rest of the B1G West come late October.”

NU is indeed looking up at the rest of the B1G West at the end of October.  But losing games to tough opponents is one thing.  Not even competing and absolute ineptitude is another.  In the month of October, Northwestern has scored one touchdown, and even that came against a Nebraska team who has surrendered 38 points to both Illinois and Indiana.

The crack Lowes Line staff has managed to get some footage of Fitz, on the left below, speaking with offensive coordinator Mick McCall, after the two reviewed the Iowa game film:

As Fitz likes to say, stats are for losers.  As such, we should talk about a few:  Pass efficiency, the college equivalent of passer rating in the NFL.  NU’s team pass efficiency is more than 20 points worse than ANY other FBS team right now.  DFL, as they like to say in golf terms.  Worse than Rutgers last year.  On pace to be the worst of the last ten years in all of college football except for Army in 2017, a team that attempted 65 throws in an entire season.

 

I realize Hunter Johnson has been out following a minor knee injury and due to a serious health concern for his mother, which is understood to be trending positive.  Best wishes to his mother for a speedy recovery, and props to Fitz for running the team in a way that allows a player to focus on his family at a difficult time.

 

That said, is it unrealistic to think third string QB Aidan Smith could be somewhat capable?  Yes, Sparty, Wisconsin, and Ohio State are likely the three best defenses on NU’s schedule, but 1 TD against 6 INTs with a 48% completion percentage?  Not winning too many games with those numbers.  

 

I mean, seriously, do other schools ever truly have capable third string QBs?  Sorry, that’s my trick ear, what’s that you say?  Cardale Jones, is it?  What’d he ever do besides step in and win the Big Ten Championship 59-0, then beat top-ranked Alabama in the national semi, and then go on to top Oregon for the national championship?  An unfair and exaggerated comparison, I get it.  But we’re not asking for a national championship.  We’re asking for a touchdown against Iowa. 

 

There’s talk Hunter Johnson might be back for Indy this week, which is nice, but as long as Mick McCall is calling the offense, it may as well be Al Czervik.  Add to this that wide receiver JJ Jefferson and running back Isaiah Bowser are out for the game and it doesn’t bode well.  

 

Indiana is on a three-game winning streak and already bowl-eligible.  For a team that’s had one winning season in 25 years, they have a solid chance at getting to 8 wins and the potential to put up some serious points on NU, even though we know it’ll only take about 7.

 

Would love to be proven wrong, but there’s nothing that leads me to be remotely optimistic.  NU needs to run the table to avoid a losing season.  Throw that in the category of possible, not probable. 

 

Pick:  Indiana 20, Northwestern 6.  

 

Season to Date:  Straight up: (5-2); Against the spread: (4-3)

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By Patrick O'Briant

 

By Eric Cockerill