Matchup: Western Michigan Broncos at Northwestern Wildcats
Date: Saturday, September 3, 2016, 11:00 am CDT
TV: ESPNU
Line: Northwestern (-5)

Outlook:
It’s shocking to think this column has continued to be written in tribute to its namesake for 17 years, and as we embark on the 18th season of remembering Marcus by way of this ongoing weekly Northwestern football preview he initiated, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention a couple of others in this space as well.  Just over two months ago, two friends and brothers were taken from us far too soon, and within a week of one another.  To those who had the pleasure to have known them, Matt Watkins and Alex Djuricich were two gentlemen, each with their own unique qualities, who embodied the idea that brotherhood is not for a day, or an hour, or a college term only, but for life.  They will be greatly missed and fondly remembered.

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As Northwestern begins the 2016 campaign, there’s a good deal of excitement, but there are also plenty of questions.   Specifically, how on earth did this team win 10 games last season?  It’s not a stretch to say last year’s squad could have been the worst 10-win team in Power-5 conference history.  A great defense, a woeful offense, and some good luck.  There you have it.  What awaits in 2016?  A regression to the mean, where the ‘Cats slip back to the doldrums of a five-win season?  Or a confirmation that 2015 wasn’t a fluke, with NU continuing to win close games as they have done quite nicely (34-21) in the Fitz era.

First, the good news.  The defense. Anchoring this squad is NU’s All-Everything candidate, junior middle linebacker Anthony Walker.  We saw glimpses of what Walker could do in his freshman year, but he really took a leap forward in 2015, becoming the focal point of the squad.  Walker will continue to get a lot of attention this season, especially if he plays like he did in last year, leading the team in tackles and seemingly being everywhere at the right time to make the big play.

The defensive line has lost two big names, Dean Lowry and Deonte Gibson, to graduation.  This duo combined for 12 sacks and 25 TFLs last year, so replacing them will be huge.  Junior Xavier Washington will be the name you hear most in that conversation, and the question we’ll have is whether Ifeadi Odenigbo can be an every down player.  He has tremendous speed and strength in rushing the passer, but needs to contribute more to the rushing defense to stay on the field.

In the secondary, the ‘Cats had one of the best units in the nation last season, but have lost cornerback Nick VanHoose and Safety Traveon Henry.  Senior cornerback Matthew Harris leads the group, along with junior safety Godwin Igwebuike.  The ‘Cats have already been bitten by the injury bug in the secondary, as junior and projected starter at corner Keith Watkins has been lost for the season with a knee injury.  Couple this with the fact that to make use of his athleticism, junior Marcus McShepard was moved to receiver.  Look for sophomore Montre Hartage to step in at the corner, and keep an eye out for much-heralded recruit and sophomore Parrker Westphal to hopefully make an impact after an injury-riddled career to date.

On the offensive side of the ball, it’s no secret Clayton Thorson needs to improve for NU to be successful.  The sophomore quarterback had a tough first season: a questionable set of receivers, injuries along the offensive line, and just being a freshman.  It equated to NU having one of the worst passing offenses in the country.  The hope is that will change significantly in 2016.  Thorson now has a full season under his belt, and it’s his team.  At times last year, it felt like the offensive strategy was just to eat some clock to give the defense a breather.   The passing game needs to become more of a focal point of the offense as opposed to an afterthought.

The offensive line was beset by injuries in 2015, and kept Thorson on the run as he was sacked 21 times.  Seniors Shane Mertz and Eric Olson are the guard and tackle, respectively along the right side.  Brad North and Ian Park have been sharing the duties at center and may continue to do so based on the health of Park. Connor Mahoney and Blake Hance shore up the left side.

No group came under more scrutiny last year than the receiving corps, and with good reason.  It’s a very simple concept:  you have to catch the ball.  NU didn’t do that enough last year, plain and simple.  Three primary targets last year caught less than half the balls thrown their way.  This was not all on Thorson.   This group will be a focal point again, but hopefully with better results.  The ‘Cats have made a few changes here, moving running back Solomon Vault and the aforementioned Marcus McShepard from corner to receiver.  Sure-handed senior Austin Carr returns as well.  After a season-ending injury last year, sophomore Flynn Nagel should return to his role as the slot receiver.  What would be terrible is if NU made moves to provide depth at receiver and didn’t take advantage of the athleticism now present at the wideout position.  Every ‘Cat fan would agree that there’s no shame in having more than one deep threat on the field at the same time.  This group’s performance will be likely be indicative of the success of the team.

Finally, at running back, junior Justin Jackson returns, and it’s easy to almost take him for granted.  In an offense that was depleted up front, with a freshman quarterback and receivers who drop passes like it’s going out of style, how on earth did this guy manage to run for 1,400+ yards?  It’s more than impressive.  Jackson is patient waiting for the hole to develop, rarely goes down on the first hit, and he’s been incredibly durable.  Jackson has a reasonable shot at becoming NU’s career leading rusher if he keeps up this pace, as he’s already sixth all-time and likely will move to fourth by the end of Week 1. While Jackson is the feature back, senior Warren Long averaged about 5 carries a game last season and should get a bigger role this season, possibly even reducing the number of carries Jackson needs to get.  Lots to be excited about with these two.

After the home opener this weekend, the ‘Cats have non-conference games at home against Illinois State and Duke.  In the first year of a nine-game Big Ten schedule, NU has five road games, with trips to Iowa, Michigan State, Ohio State , Purdue, and Minnesota, while playing host in Evanston to Nebraska, Indiana, Wisconsin, and the traditional regular season finale with Illinois.

Following an unexpectedly good season last year, the NU fan base is hoping we don’t get a reversion to the mean, akin to what happened in both 2013 and 2014 after the last 10-win season where the ‘Cats had back-to-back losing seasons.  This season’s schedule is quite a bit tougher, with an extra conference game to boot.  I don’t see ten wins in the future, but anything less than seven would have to be considered a disappointment.

So our Week 1 opponent, Western Michigan.  Typical non-conference directional school that the ‘Cats can feast on?  Think again.  This is more than a “avoid injuries” contest.  The Broncos had a solid 8-5 season in 2015, with two of their losses at the hands of Michigan State and Ohio State.  They only lost conference games to Bowling Green and Northern Illinois to finish 6-2 in the MAC, topping a ranked Toledo team in their regular season finale before winning their bowl game.   The Wildcat defense will need to be ready right out of the gate, as Western Michigan comes in to Evanston led by senior QB Zach Terrell, who’s thrown for 45 TDs and nearly 7,000 yards the past two seasons.  On top of this, he’s incredibly accurate, completing two thirds of his passes in that span.  If that’s enough to get NU’s attention, the Broncos also have a solid running game, led by sophomore Jamauri Bogan, who rushed for over 1,000 yards as a freshman, despite six games where he didn’t even get 10 carries.

In this season opener, the ‘Cats have to get after it right away, especially on defense.  We’ll be looking for some questions to get answered in a hurry.  Specifically, will the defensive line holes be filled? Will the passing game open up?  Who will step forward as a main passing target?  Will the secondary be as good as advertised?

Look for offensive coordinator Mick McCall to keep to his usual conservative plan.  NU will rely on its defense and wear down Western Michigan with its running game of Jackson and Long.  Thorson won’t be called on to do too much besides avoid mistakes.  That might cut it in Week 1, but not for too long after that.  Anthony Walker lays the groundwork for an All-American season as the ‘Cats get to 10-1 in season openers under Fitz.

Matchup: Duke University Blue Devils (1-1, 0-1 ACC) at Northwestern Wildcats (0-2, 0-0)
Date: Saturday, September 17, 2016, 7:10 pm CDT
TV: BTN
Line: Less befuddling than the opening line.  But still, befuddling.  NU (-3.5)

Outlook:

At the top of President Morton Shapiro’s inbox this morning:

September 10, 2016
President Morton Shapiro
Northwestern University
633 Clark Street
Evanston, IL 60208

Dear President Shapiro:

It is with sincere regret that I must inform you that, due to circumstances within your athletic department’s control, effectively immediately Northwestern University’s football membership in the Big Ten athletic conference is hereby revoked.  The Big Ten prides itself on a sterling image among the Power 5 conferences, and the Wildcats’ most recent performance against Football Championship Series participant Illinois State threatens to tarnish that reputation to an intolerable extent.  If you have any questions about this decision, I refer you to the game tape from Saturday which should provide all of the justification necessary.
If Northwestern University is interested in continuing its football program, may I suggest that you concentrate your search on the interscholastic level.  It is my estimation that even attempting to compete at a Division III level might be a bit difficult, as Mount Union and University of Wisconsin at Whitewater are formidable opponents.  Perhaps the Central Suburban League of the Illinois High School Association could offer good, local competition.

Sincerely yours,
James Delaney
Commissioner, B1G Conference

P.S. Have a nice day.

* * * * *

Remember a while back when rumors were circulating that another, bigger-name university was going to approach Coach Pat Fitzgerald and lure him away with a much bigger contract and better perks?  And how we all thought that was a BAD thing?

* * * * *

When all of the Lowes Line staff was enrolled at Northwestern, the kind of effort and low coaching quality witnessed this past Satruday was on display every Saturday at Dyche Stadium.  All due respect to Coach Francis Peay and the student-athletes that lined up in purple and white week in and week out, but the Wildcats of the time were vastly outmanned and outcoached.  Cries of, “Break their hearts!  Score on ‘em!” were commonplace among those brave enough to sit on the home side of the stadium.  Fans amused themselves by throwing marshmallows at each other and leaving with 5 minutes left in the first half to go get blind drunk in the parking lot; the outcome of the game was sealed before halftime, anyway.

But then someone with the audacity to believe NU football could be more than a laughing stock came calling, promising to “take the Purple to Pasadena.”  And the catchphrase “Expect Victory” was born.  The student-athletes recruited were better football players, including a certain linebacker that now leads the team in a far different capacity.  Though it may have been mocked as a bit of hollow boasting, a trip to the Rose Bowl made believers out of many.  And, over the course of many following seasons, NU played much better teams tougher and even took down some national powerhouses.  No longer were the Wildcats mocked with the nickname “Mildcats” and anytime NU showed up on your schedule, you had a legitimate basis to be nervous.  The offense was far different than anything else at the time and could roar down the field to score a touchdown in 2 minutes.  For a long drive.  The defense bent but didn’t break, and was just opportunistic enough to give the offense enough chances to outscore the other team.  Just ask Michigan, University of – the Wolverines lost to the wild and crazy ‘Cats 54-51.

But that was then.  This is now.

* * * * *

I don’t want to seem ungrateful.  Under Coach Fitzgerald, the Wildcats have gone to 6 bowl games in 10 seasons, and actually won their first bowl game in 2012, defeating an SEC team in the Gator Bowl.  Last season’s Outback Bowl performance was, well, God-awful – a 45-6 loss to Tennessee.  And any bowl game, even an embarrassing loss, is far better than the product the Lowes Line staff endured as undergrads.

But here’s the problem with building a program:  expectations are raised even higher and faster than the quality of play.  If you tell your fan base to “Expect Victory”, they will so you better deliver.  And that brings us to the present day, and the utter disappointment with the current version of Wildcat football.

Being a coach means preparing your players with the best skills and game plan each Saturday.  The results this year call into question the level of preparation and game planning NU’s coaching staff has done each week.  It’s hard to justify a game plan that centers around passing the ball with a quarterback with a lifetime 50.8% completion percentage.  Yet, Saturday, against what should have been a lesser opponent, Northwestern play selection involved 41 pass attempts.  And only 41.5% of them were completed.  It’s not exactly news that Thorson is a poor passer; last season he completed barely half of his passes and threw two more interceptions (9) than touchdowns (7).  Einstein defined insanity as doing something again and again and expecting a different result.  By that measure, the NU coaching staff is cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs for continuing to pass with Thorson.

In contrast, Justin Jackson remains underutilized.  He only got the ball 11 times against Illinois State.  True he did leave early in the fourth quarter due to leg injury (he is listed as “probable” this week) and his yards per carry were down that game, but for the season he is averaging almost 5 yards a carry and he scored 3 touchdowns against Western Michigan.  Subtracting quarterback sacks, which in college are considered rushes, NU ran the ball 28 times to the 41 passes thrown (and, including sacks, 44+ dropbacks).  In what universe does it make sense to continue that kind of ratio?  Answer:  it doesn’t.  And we’re supposed to be the “smart” school.  Why do we not learn from this?

It has been said that Coach Fitzgerald advocates the vanilla game plan so as not to tip off to future Big Ten opponents how NU will attack them.  But is that really the best plan of action?  That means several fewer weeks of focusing on what you see as the identity of your football team.  And it leads to results like what we have seen the last two weeks – embarrassing losses to a mid-major and a lower division opponent.  If you contrast that philosophy against other Big Ten opponents, it is obvious it makes little sense.  Take, for example, Wisconsin.  What does Wisconsin do on offense?  They run the ball.  Repeatedly.  During the non-conference season.  During the Big Ten season.  It is no secret, and hasn’t been since Barry Alvarez took over as head coach in 1990.  That’s 26 years, folks.  Twenty six years of knowing when you go to Camp Randall, they’re going to line up a big offensive line and use one of a number of skilled tailbacks to cram the ball down your throat.  (As I will also be writing the Lowes Line for the November 5 game, this is what is known as foreshadowing.)  It’s no secret, and yet they have had a remarkable run of success.  Why?  Because it’s what they do and they’re going to work on being better at it than you are at stopping it.  So it’s time that NU stops the subterfuge and returns to its identity as a panic-inducing opponent.  Focus on getting guys who can excel in the frenetic offenses that keep defenses off balance, even if they know it’s coming.

That might help the defense, too.  Running the ball more keeps the NU defense right where it belongs – on the bench cheering on the offense.  And opposing teams might take fewer risks on offense if they knew giving the ball to NU meant any danger whatsoever.  But, in two games, NU’s defense has been on the field an average of 37 minutes.  The defense needs to find ways to stop drives and get the ball back.  The defense will be down a key piece, as senior cornerback Matthew Harris has been ruled out with a concussion.  Being on the field for almost two-thirds of the game is a recipe for disaster, even when your offense is rolling up the points.  But when half of what Thorson throws up comes clanging back to the ground (or, in the case of the Cardinals, 3 out of every 5 passes), one can only Expect Victory…for the other team.

Cue the Duke Blue Devils and their visit to Ryan Field.  Both Duke and NU have lost games this season to an ESPN College Game Day-designated “super ‘dog”.  The Blue Devils arrive still stinging from their defeat at the hands of ACC also-ran Wake Forest.  Duke is led by freshman quarterback Daniel Jones.  Curiously, Jones and Thorson have thrown the same number of passes this season:  63.  However, Jones has completed almost two-thirds of his passes for 150 more yards and one more touchdown (and one more interception) than Thorson.  Jones will hand the ball off to senior tailback Jela Duncan who, through his career at Duke, consistently averages more than 5 yards per carry.  He also is a threat to catch a few passes out of the backfield.

It’s hard to predict how Duke’s defense will fare against NU’s “offense.”  Through two games, Duke has allowed far fewer total yards, with the lion’s share of that difference in passing defense.  If NU intends to continue its aerial assault, that does not bode well for NU’s chances.  Stoutness against the run is about equal.  However, one of those games was against North Carolina Central University, a member of the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference and a competitor in the FCS, which Duke won 49-6.  (Interesting comparison of results against FCS schools:  Duke wins by 43, while NU looks terrible in scoring one measly touchdown to lose by 2.  Not sure how noteworthy this is, but last week NCCU traveled to Kalamazoo to get royally pounded by Western Michigan, 70-21.  Maybe we should be glad we only lost to the Broncos by a point?)
As much as I would like to see the Wildcats get the ship righted before heading into the Big Ten season, I just don’t see that happening.  The Wildcats should give Justin Jackson many more opportunities to carry the ball, as many believe he can play on Sundays after his NU career wraps up, with a few of those believing he will be wearing a certain orange-and-blue jersey at 5,280 feet.  But given no indication otherwise, the Wildcats offense continues its ineffective pass-wacky attack, resulting in another game in which Thorson’s completion percentage is below 50%.  Duke’s pass defense does enough to control the Cats through the air, and Duke becomes the third team in the 2016 season to dominate in time of possession.  Jela Duncan runs and catches his way through the NU defense, becoming more effective as the Cat defenders get worn down.  Close through the first half, but Duke pulls away.

Matchup: Northwestern Wildcats at Iowa Hawkeyes
Date: Saturday, October 1, 2016, 11am CDT
TV: ESPNU
Line: Iowa -14

The Wildcats play Iowa tomorrow and the Lowes Line is ambivalent.  I feel like I have written this same column for the past five years.  The 'Cats are underachieving but Fitz is the best coach we can hope to have and stay for more than a few years.  The dismal play this year has me questioning that logic.  To watch the 'Cats the past few years get worse and worse is painful.  It used to be fun to watch the Cardiac 'Cats, but no longer.  It is just suffering as the other team gradually pulls away every game.  This being an email about the 'Cats I thought I would pick them just because I want them to win, but then I remembered we are playing Iowa and I believe Fitz's message will be "to win, we have to be tougher than them".  Part of that is true but winning games requires more than toughness.  It requires a plan to exploit the other team's weaknesses and highlight your team's strengths.  I don't think NU has a plan right now.  It is going to be a long season.


Pick:

'Cats keep it close in the first half but don't adjust and Iowa wins going away. 

Iowa 27, NU 13

MSU Preview and Prediction

Matchup: Indiana Hoosiers (3-3, 1-2) at Northwestern Wildcats (3-3, 2-1)
Date: Saturday, October 22, 2016, 11:00 am CDT
TV: BTN
Line: Northwestern (-1.5); O/U: 52.5
 
Outlook:
Did somebody get the license plate on that offensive juggernaut that plowed through East Lansing last weekend?  Many a Northwestern fan were raising an eyebrow at the display put forth by the Wildcats as NU scored more points than a visiting team has ever scored at Michigan State.  The Wildcats managed to give up points on bad, and then fluky, plays. But rather than wilt, they responded. 
 
It didn’t start well, with Michigan State getting a pick-six before the first quarter was half over to take a 14-0 lead.  Then something incredible happened.  A Wildcat touchdown, another one, a safety, a field goal, and NU had a turned a 14-0 deficit into a 19-17 lead at the half. 
 
The third quarter was about as exciting as they come.  NU came out of the gate firing in the second half, putting up two TDs to take a 33-17 lead, but Sparty came back with TD passes of 59 and 86 yards after switching quarterbacks to get back within two at 33-31.  Solomon Vault took the ensuing kickoff to the house for the ‘Cats to take the lead back to nine, which is as close as Sparty would get the rest of the way.
 
Justin Jackson continues to be a workhorse.  He went for 188 yards on 34 carries against Michigan State.  The more you see of him, the more you are impressed.  More quick than fast, Jackson seems to always find a way to get positive yardage, and is about as good as they come in waiting for his block to develop to spring a big run.  His two touchdowns in East Lansing were things of beauty.
 
Clayton Thorson, even with a pick-six, had the game of his career to date.  He hit on 77% of his passes, going 27 of 35 for 281 yards, while throwing for 3 touchdowns and running for another.  Wideout Austin Carr continued his brilliance with 11 catches for 130 yards and 2 TDs. 
 
Even the defense deserves some credit.  You might think with Sparty scoring 40 points it was a disaster, but with a pick-six, a fluke TD that hit DB Godwin Igwebuike twice on a bomb, and a blocked punt that turned into a field goal, the defense was pretty good.  NU got four sacks, and stopped the MSU rushing attack cold.
 
On top of it all, this Lowes Liner may have been most impressed by the aggressive playcalling on offense with a lead.  A beautiful draw on 3rd and 9 that goes for a touchdown?  A pass to the end zone on 4th & 6 for another TD?  Have we finally turned a corner?
 
Exciting, yes, and certainly yearning for more, but forgive me if I’m not yet drinking the Kool-Aid.  Northwestern goes on the road and wins a game or two as a sizeable underdog.  They come back home, expectations are heightened, and NU is a favorite in Evanston.  What does this scenario have in common with The Godfather, Caddyshack, and Animal House?  It’s that we’ve seen this movie before.
 
Not sure why, and I may be completely off base, but it seems the strategy and/or execution is different at home or as a favorite.  Someone of you can go look it up, but anecdotally, it just seems that way. 
 
Are the Wildcats a better team than Indiana?  I would say yes, but this is not your father’s Hoosier football team.   Indiana has not only played well, but been competitive in all three of their losses to Wake Forest, Nebraska, and Ohio State.  They have a much-improved defense from a year ago, which has allowed them to stay in those games, and they’ll probably get to a bowl game for the second year in a row, which hasn’t happened in Bloomington in a quarter century.
 
How will the ‘Cats come out at home after two big wins on the road?  The defense looks good, and the offense is starting to click.  Will it be enough, or will the weight of expectations be too much for NU to get the W?
 
As for the movies, we know how they end:  Michael has the heads of the five families knocked off, Bushwood Country Club is decimated by Carl’s explosives, and the Deltas exact their revenge at being kicked off campus.  Similarly, NU fails to live up to expectations at home, blowing a winnable game late.
 
Pick:  Indiana 27, Northwestern 24.  Take the Hoosiers and the points.

Season to Date: 0-5 straight up, 1-3-1 against the spread. (clearly for entertainment value only)

Matchup:  Northwestern Wildcats (4-5, 3-3) at Purdue Boilermakers (3-6, 1-5)
Date:  Saturday November 12, 2016, 11:00 am CST
TV:  BTN
Line:  NU - 14
 
Outlook: