The Complete 2009 Lowes Line Predictions

By Galloping Grapes

Matchup: Northwestern Wildcats (2-0, 0-0) at Syracuse Orange (0-2, 0-0)
Date: Saturday, September 19, 2009, 6:10 pm EDT
Television: ESPN Gameplan and ESPN 360 (i.e., no TV for me)
Line: NU (-4)

Outlook: 
 
Sadly, I can’t do a song parody for this week’s Lowes Line.  Nothing rhymes with Orange.  Or with Syracuse.  An allegorical preview that makes strained allusions to the Glorious Revolution, Scottish protestants and the Dutch seems too pedantic, even for me. 

On the other hand, one would think that there is a wealth of potential material to be mined from the vapid history of Syracuse mascots.  I imagine that a mascot dust-up this weekend would involve little more than a perplexed Air Willie trying to decide how to react to a giant orange beachball whose primary offensive attack consists of running into a wall, Mr. Kool-Aid style, only to bounce back in a spray of pulpy citrus.  And this is the mascot that replaced the oddly offensive “Saltine Warrior” who held sway over Syracuse athletic events for more than 40 years.  I can see where the average Native American might be offended by the comparison to a lightly-salted, dry (and somewhat bland) cracker.  But it never seemed to bother the Syracuse football team, whose play over the last few seasons could be fairly compared to said crackers.

Wins against Towson and Eastern Michigan tell us next to nothing (other than inciting some nervous jitters after letting EMU back in the game last week).  Coach Fitz has basically limited the Wildcats to the covers of their playbooks, and has taken the opportunity to go deep into his positional rotations in both games.  Unlike NU’s first two opponents, however, the ‘Cuse has some real talent, is from a BCS conference, plays in a tough home stadium (the non-air conditioned Carrier Dome) and has already played more of a Big Ten schedule than has NU this season.  [Syracuse lost in OT to Minnesota, and was outclassed by Penn State last week.]  Fitz will need to crack open his playbook this weekend.

As hard as it is to believe, the Orange will put some legitimate talent on the field tonight.  The headlines are all about former Duke guard Greg Paulus, who looked downright frisky against Penn State.  He won’t threaten the Heisman lists this year, but after 4 years in the Duke basketball cauldron, he has much more poise and maturity than most first-year QBs.  Paulus will win a game or two for the Orange this season, you can book it.  It helps that he has a top flight WR in Mike Williams.  Williams can keep a drive alive, and NU’s top corner, Sherrick McManus, has a gimpy hamstring that could keep him out of the game. Also, Delone Carter and Antwon Bailey are solid running backs.  There isn’t a true “44” on campus, but Syracuse isn’t an empty cupboard.  The main problem for the Orange on offense is their line, which (in the words of one of my colleagues who is a Syracuse alum) “sucks, sucks, sucks.”  I didn’t think they looked that bad against Minny and JoePa, but I’ll trust the opinion of the only breathing Syracuse fan I know.  Hopefully, NU’s defensive line will eat ‘em up.

Speaking of eating, the Syracuse defense in recent years has been stinkier than Swedish surstromming (trust me, that’s pretty stinky).  The defense is still not exactly good, but it is anchored by a future NFL tackle named Arthur Jones.  Frankly, I can’t get a read on NU’s offense yet, which worries me.  Have they been handcuffed by a “just enough to win” strategy in the first two games?  Once the playbook opens up a bit, will the offense be ready and clicking?  I hope so.  The key to this game will be NU’s offensive efficiency – control the ball, no turnovers, dominate time of possession.  The Wildcats shouldn’t need big play flash against this weak sister of the Big East.  Steady, mistake-free game management should get the job done.

My biggest fear is that the Wildcats come out flat, expecting to sleepwalk to a win against another crummy opponent.  A big play or two from Paulus/Williams, an off day by Kafka and Co., and NU could be looking at a disappointing loss.  Syracuse has the benefit of intangibles:  home field (the Carrier Dome is not a good place to visit), and a desperate need to win this game.  The Big (L)east is down, down, down this year, and a lousy team like Syracuse could make some unexpected noise.  Also, the Orange have a Div-IAA/FCS team on their schedule next week, and they would love to be 2-2 going into conference play.  The players, coaches and fans view tomorrow night as a pivotal game for their season.  I suspect the Wildcats are thinking about this game as a win, but so is Syracuse.

Pick:   I hate to do this, but a Dookie and Oranges makes for an unappetizing combo.  The Wildcats stumble on the road in an upset.

Syracuse 20, NU 17.  Take Syracuse for the outright win.

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By Charlie Simon

Matchup: Northwestern Wildcats (2-1, 0-0) vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers (2-1, 0-0)

Date: Saturday, September 26, 2009, 11am CDT

Television: Big Ten Network

Location: Ryan Field, Evanston, IL

Line: NU (-1)

 

Outlook:

Last week at the ‘Cats game in Syracuse; NU was missing several defensive starters.  Coach Fitz hoped his offense could make up for the potential defensive let down.  It almost did.  Mike Kafka was 35-for-42 for 390 yards and four touchdowns, including a 3-yard TD run and TD catch.  The 35 for 42 set a new NU single game completion percentage record. Unfortunately one of those misfires was intercepted in the closing seconds of the game allowing Syracuse to kick a FG for its first victory of the year.

This week NU hosts the Gophers of Minnesota.  Historically NU and Minnesota have been very evenly matched teams.  The last two games between NU and Minn. have been especially exciting with the outcome being decided on the last play of the game.

In 2007 in Evanston, the Gophers blew a 35-14 lead to allow the ‘Cats to take the game into OT. In the second overtime, Minn. went for two points after a touchdown run by quarterback Adam Weber.  Weber's pass fell incomplete and NU won 49-48.

Last November at the Metrodome, Minnesota entered 7-1 and ranked No.20 in the nation.  After opening 5-0, the Wildcats lost two of three and trudged north without quarterback C.J. Bacher, running back Tyrell Sutton and linebacker Malcolm Arrington.  Somehow, backup Mike Kafka crafted a dream game. He galloped for a Big Ten quarterback record 217 yards, threw for another 143 and had a hand in all but three yards of the Wildcats' total offense.  In final 5 minutes of 17-17 tie game both teams were trying not to lose.  Then Minnesota decided to try and win the game and lost it.  Minn QB Weber threw late over the middle. Safety Brendan Smith intercepted it and weaved his way for 48 yards and a touchdown to give NU a 24-17 victory.

Of course the best ending between NU and Minnesota was 2000.  There are no words that can compete with the video, so here it is:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wRpwy0Nb68Y

 

Last week the Gophers fell to eighth-ranked California 35-21 after being tied with the Golden Bears 21-21 early in the fourth quarter.   Cal running back Jahvid Best tied a school record with five rushing TDs and went over the 100-yard rushing mark for the seventh straight game.

 

This year should prove to be another close and exciting game as the teams are once again evenly matched as evidence by Minn. beating Syracuse in OT and NU losing to Syracuse on the last play of the game.

 

Minnesota is led by their All-American receiver Eric Decker.  He is a man among boys on the field.  NU must be aware of him at all times and keep him double covered on third down if they expect to win.  The stat of the game should be third down completions for first downs to Decker.  If NU can hold the Gophers to three or fewer the ‘Cats can win.  More than three and the Gophers will roll (or dig or whatever Gophers do). 

 

The Minnesota defense is decent but not outstanding.  I would say the same about NU’s but now I am starting to wonder.  The defense was supposed to be the strength of NU’s team this year but giving up 34 to Syracuse turns that notion on its head.  Sherrick McMannis, NU’s shutdown cornerback does appear healthy enough to start.  He must have a big game for NU to contend. 

 

On Saturday look for the points to come early and often as both offenses should be better than the respective defenses.  After close losses in 2007 and 2008 I think the sun will finally shine on Minnesota and they will squeak out a win.

 

 

Pick:   The law of averages catches up with the ‘Cats allowing the Gophers to pull out a close one.

 

Minnesota 30 – NU 27.  Gophers win outright.

 

Season to date: 3-0 outright, 2-1 against the spread.

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By Joel Kanvik

Matchup: Northwestern Wildcats (2-2, 0-1) at Purdue Boilermakers (1-3, 0-0)
Date: Saturday, October 3, 2009, 11:00 am CDT
Television: Big Ten Network
Line: Purdue (-8); Over/under 57

Outlook:

The 'Cats slink into West Lafayette on a 2-game losing streak. I think all we've learned about the 'Cats thus far is that they're a good bully when inferior opponents come to call, but revert to the Mildcats when any sort of decent opponent arrives. Which team will show up today against the Boilermakers?

Mike Kafka has not been the running threat he showed against Minnesota last year. His throwing has been uneven, resulting in a sparkling 72% completion percentage, but only 5 TDs against 3 interceptions. He needs to get started and be more effective with the football. This was highlighted last week against the Gophers, as Kafka's two fumbles late killed any chance the 'Cats had to come back against the Gophers. The 'Cats are running the ball by committee, with 3 backs having more than 20 carries (Simmons, Schmidt, Fields). Andrew Brewer has been the receiving leader with an 18.7 yards per catch average (that statistic is somewhat inflated by his 72 yard TD reception).

The Boilers open their Big Ten season fresh off a heartbreaking loss against Notre Dame, losing the game in the waning seconds of the game. That has been a recurring theme for the Boilermakers this season, as each of their three losses have been by three points or less (one of those losses was at home to Northern Illinois). The Boilers represent the 4th team in 2009 (out of 5 opponents) led by a first-year coach, in this case Danny Hope. Under center is senior quarterback Joey Elliot who tends to be as generous with the football as Kafka. Elliot has thrown 7 TDs, but completed passes to guys in the wrong uniforms 6 times; not a good ratio. Sophomore sensation Ralph Bolden leads the Big Ten in rushing, averaging 122.0 yards per game.

The key to this game will be the defenses of each team, and how they stop the threat posed by their opponents' offenses. Can the 'Cats contain Bolden and prevent him from running wild? Can they do this while giving proper respect to the passing attack posed by the Boilers (while Drew Brees and Joe Tiller are gone, it is Purdue after all). Can the Boilermaker defense contain Kafka's arm and the three-headed backfield of NU?

Neither team's defense has played consistently well against quality opponents. The Boilers allowed the Fighting Irish to march down the field and score the winning touchdown late in the 4th quarter. The 'Cats defense couldn't hold the Gophers off the board after scoring to close the third quarter (in fairness to the defense, the second TD surrendered to the Gophers came after a turnover deep in Cat territory). In case it's not apparent, smart money takes the over in this game.

Pick: It's a shootout, last team with the ball wins. I think the Cats have it last. The Boilers' close game woes continue.

NU 34, Purdue 31.

Season to date: Straight up, 4-0. Against the spread, 3-1

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By MO'Cats

Matchup: Miami Redhawks (Redskins until recently) 0-5 at NU Wildcats  3-2

Date: Saturday, October 10, 2009, 11:00 am CDT
Television: Big Ten Network
Weather: Sunny, high of 56F
Line: NU (-18.5); Over/under 55.5
 
Recap:

WOW!! Are the cardiac 'Cats back?? After a dismal beginning that included a fumble on their first play from scrimmage and a 21-3 hole, NU then went on a 20 play 9:30 minute drive and came away with nothing, nada, zilch, zero. Stopped on 4th and 1, many a NU fan walked away disgusted. BUT WAIT, an int and a quick scamper from Arby Fields-- who appears to be the heir apparent to Sutton-- made it 21-10. A fumble on the subsequent kickoff led to a Demos field goal, and it was 21-13. Kickoff again and Purdue went out to run out the clock. Purdue fumbled again and the 'Cats kicked a field goal to end the half down only 5, 21-16.

13 points in the final 1:31 has to be putting some serious gray in the Boilermaker coach. Of course he deserves it after calling a timeout as time was running out against Notre Dame the week before. Seriously, the Irish had 4th down with about 30 seconds to play on Purdue's 3 yard  line, needing a touchdown. Notre Dame lacking a timeout was scrambling and PURDUE calls timeout to set up their defense. WHAT!!  Needless to say the stinking Irish score and win, but I digress. 

The 3rd quarter was punctuated by defense and NU kicking another field goal. Trailing 21-19, NU forced the 6th turnover by the Boilermakers and Kafka made them pay. With 2:09 left, Kafka scored and the 'Cats went up 27-21. Purdue wasn't done and it took a 4th and goal stand as time was expiring for the 'Cats to hold on as they won their first, much needed Big 10 victory.
 
The Redhawks from Oxford, OH (a great campus in a good college town) were manhandled by Cincinnati last week, falling to 0-5, and have lost their last 10 in a row. Miami has been shut out by the likes of  Kentucky and Boise State, and it was beaten soundly by Western Michigan, Kent  State and the aforementioned Bearcats. The Redhawks are led by QB  Zac Dysert who leads the team in passing. He also leads the team in rushing with a whopping 135 yards in 5 games (that can't be a good stat).

This game shouldn't be close. Fitz needs to get the 'Cats to come out and take the Redhawks out of the game early. A comfortable 24-3 halftime lead should be exactly what Fitz should be shooting for in this game. Kafka has to limit mistakes and Arby just needs to pound the ball down their throats. Enough of the analysis, if the 'Cats plan on getting to a bowl, this is a must win and the 'Cats need to make a statement. This will get the 'Cats to 4 victories, needing 3 more to get to a bowl.

Pick: It shouldn't be close.  NU 34, Miami 13. Take the 'Cats and the points
 
Season to date: Straight up, 5-0. Against the spread, 4-1. Vegas here we come.

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By Eric Cockerill

Matchup: Northwestern University Wildcats (4-2, 1-1) at Michigan State University Spartans (3-3, 2-1)
Date: Saturday, October 17, 2009, 11:00 am CDT
Television: ESPN2
Weather: Partly cloudy, high of 48F, slight chance of rain
Line: NU (+13.5); Over/under 51.5
 

Recap

“Underwhelmed” is probably the best way to describe a Northwestern fan’s reaction to last week’s game.  Against a substantially weaker opponent, Northwestern controlled the game, but failed to deliver a knockout blow and allowed the Miami RedHawks to remain within striking distance throughout the game.   NU’s defense clearly overmatched the Redhawks.  However, the concern is the team’s offense that seemed unable or unwilling to take advantage of a weaker team.  Kafka went 15 for 31 for only 191 passing yards, but also limited critical mistakes that have hurt the 'Cats in their previous games.  Hopefully, the team was experiencing a temporary letdown against an inferior opponent and will turn up the intensity this week.
 
Next up are the Spartans of Michigan State.  What is it about this team?  Since I grew up within spitting distance from the MSU campus, I usually cover this game for the Lowes Line, and each time I shake my head at the Spartan’s failure to reach their potential.  Year after year, they enter the season with high hopes only to fail in big games by the end of the season.   The big knock is usually a lack of discipline and that trait has been a constant for as long as I’ve been following football… regardless of coach, players, or opponent.  This year seems to be no different.  On one hand, they beat Michigan two weeks ago in OT (always a big game), they’ve been in every game so far, and have shown flashes of a powerhouse offense.  On the other, their three losses were by 8 or less and they lost to Central Michigan University in a game they were clearly supposed to win.  For NU, that means if they can get ahead or stay close, MSU may fold under the pressure.  

 

Northwestern enters the game as a two touchdown underdog and based on the Spartan’s ability to score, I can see the underdog tag, but two touchdowns seems a bit high.  The Wildcat defense is significantly better when Sherrick McManis is on the field, as he should be for his second straight game on Saturday.  The secret may be NU’s ability to slow down an above average MSU rushing attack and force them to throw into the NU defense’s strength.  Let’s hope Corey Wootton is able to continue his progress and contribute a sack or two to the cause.  On offense, it’s the same old story.  MSU is clearly vulnerable if Kafka can avoid the drive killing interceptions and fumbles that can cost them dearly before.  

 

NU is rightly an underdog, but the game is definitely winnable if the 'Cats can avoid falling behind early.  The more pressure on MSU at home, the better.  Still, I’m calling for the 'Cats to lose the game by less than the two touchdown spread and I’ll be happy to have underestimated them if they can pull out a win.

 
Pick: MSU

MSU 30, NU 27. Take the 'Cats and the points
 
Season to date: Straight up, 6-0. Against the spread, 4-2. Vegas

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By Jersey Cat

Outlook:

What can you say about this year’s Homecoming game for the ‘Cats? It’s an absolute must-win if a bowl game is in the cards, period. No two ways about it. The question out there is whether this team is good enough to really warrant a postseason berth at all. Look at the results to date: Losses at Syracuse in giving the game away down the stretch, at home where they folded in the second half against the Gophers, and at East Lansing, where the defense played for 3 quarters against Michigan State. Wins in beating up on a Div 1-AA team, needing a last second field goal against Eastern Michigan, turning six turnovers into no more than 27 points in a close one at Purdue, and only putting up 16 points against a winless Miami (OH) squad. Hardly impressive. They say you are what you are, and NU is indeed 4-3, but it has not been pretty to date. Best case scenario, do we really need to spend Boxing Day watching a 6-6 NU squad get the crap kicked out of them by a MAC team in, of all things, the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl? Bottom line, this Lowes Liner doesn’t think the 'Cats have the special sauce this year to pull an upset that gets them to a guaranteed postseason berth. I’d love to be proven wrong, and it all starts with Indiana this week in Evanston.

Last week against the Spartans, NU showed pockets of brilliance, putting on a stoic display on the defensive side of the ball for the first thirty minutes, holding MSU scoreless. Then the third quarter happened, and Sparty & Co. never looked back. Kafka played well, completing a high percentage of his high-percentage passes in going 34-47 for 291 yards and two TDs. What is somewhat unclear is why the offensive line continues to struggle. The running game for NU is almost non-existent, and it results in Kafka throwing the ball quite a bit, which is fine as long as it yields something. The spread offense for four yard completions is the gameplan, and in the words of Dr. Ullery, is "the new three yards and a cloud of dust."

Indiana comes in fresh off a win over what has become a joke of a team in Illinois. How did that Illini program do a 360 so quickly? (No, not a 180, but a 360, in bad to good and back to bad again). Never underestimate the influence Chief Illiniwek had. Anyway, the Hoosiers have gotten to 4-3 by beating up on inferior competition, losing games they would never likely have won, and taking one of their few chances for a conference win. Indy is led by junior QB Ben Chappell, who has had some impressive outings, most notably last week against Illinois where he threw for 333 yards and three TDs. But he also has the tendency to throw 'em away as well, as his 7 INTs in the seven games attests. The running game is by committee for the Hoosiers, mostly split between senior Demetrius McCray and freshman Darius Willis. The defense is not impressive, and NU should be able to move the ball on this squad. The lingering question isn't whether the 'Cats can move the ball successfully, which they have been doing all year, but whether they can put points on the board.

NU's defense should be able to contain the Hoosier offense. A question mark is in the secondary, which had periodic lapses last week. Once again, Kafka's 'Cats will move the ball up and down the gridiron, but will they take advantage of what will likely be several trips to the red zone? Hopefully the 'Cats get the running game going, and that Arby "Beef n' Cheddar" Fields provides a little more of a balanced offensive attack.

Point to Ponder....those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it -- last time Indiana won in Evanston, a newly elected Democratic president was also nine months into his term, with grandiose plans to revamp the healthcare system and giving millions of voters buyer’s remorse, scratching their heads and saying they can’t believe they voted for this guy.  The year: 1993.  Hopefully the Evanston drought continues for Indy.

After all the negativity, you'd think I'd go against the 'Cats.  Not on Homecoming.  Not with household name and Bears linebacker Nick Roach as the parade's grand marshall.  But not with the spread.

Pick: 'Cats win, Hoosiers cover: NU 24, Indy 20. Take the Hoosiers and the points.

Season to date: Straight up, 7-0. Against the spread, 5-2.

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By MO'Cats

Matchup: #12 Penn State Nittany Lions (7-1, 3-1) at Northwestern Wildcats (5-3, 2-2)
Date: Saturday, October 31, 2009, 3:30 pm CDT
Television: ESPN
Line: Penn State (-15)

Outlook:

What a game last week for homecoming.  The 'Cats spotted the Hoosiers 21 points before blinking an eye (scoring on 1st play from scrimmage), managed a field goal, and then on the ensuing kickoff gave up a 93 yard kickoff return for a touchdown.  The Cardiac 'Cats cut it to 28-17 by halftime after Kafka threw to Zeke to finish out the half.  The 3rd quarter was marked by a blocked punt for a safety (could have been a touchdown) and then Indiana marched down the field.  Up 28-19, Bill Lynch (the IU coach) decided to go for it on 4th and goal from inside the 3.  The Hoosiers didn't make it and the 'Cats had some life.  Lynch could have gone up 2 touchdowns with a chip shot field goal.  Needless to say, they didn't make it.  Early in the 4th quarter, Kafka hit Brewer for a huge play and the 'Cats pulled to within 2.  This set up the final drive.  As time expired Demos kicked a 19 yard field goal to give the 'Cats 29-28 homecoming victory.  A collective sigh of relief from every 'Cats fan as the Lowes Line stays perfect straight up and moves to 6-2 against the spread.

This week is going to be a challenge.  The once-beaten Nittany Lions come visiting the 'Cats as 15 point favorites after a convincing victory at the Big House-- 35-10.  The Wolverines opened the game with an 11 play 70 yard touchdown drive but were held to 180 yards and 3 points the rest of the game.  The Lions are led by senior quarterback Daryll Clark.  Clark is the Big 10's leading passer with 148.4 rating and has 17 touchdowns on the season.  Junior running back Evan Royster handles the smash duties with a nice 5.7 yards per carry average but most of the damage will come through the air.  Penn State's defense is 18th in the nation in interceptions with 10 and if Kafka isn't careful, they very well could pad those stats this weekend.  Kafka leads the Big 10 in passing yards but his 3 interceptions last week almost killed the 'Cats.  NU has to find some consistent rushing attack.  Is Scott Concannon the answer?   Last week, he carried 16 times for 73 yards and hopefully he can provide some consistency in the backfield.  The NU defense is struggling with injuries and CB Sherrick McManis left the game last week with an injured leg and is doubtful this week. 

Late afternoon start on ESPN, the tailgates will be open all day and the beverages will be flowing (wait a minute, NU doesn't want the undergrads to have fun anymore, scratch that).  Late afternoon start, the alumni will have the wine and scotch flowing.  It will be a raucous crowd (do you think attendance might break 25,000?) on the big stage.  Can the 'Cats pull out a huge victory???

Pick: Nope.  Nittany Lions 31 - Wildcats 17.  Lions win but 'Cats cover barely

Season to date: Straight up, 8-0. Against the spread, 6-2.

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By Eric Cockerill

Matchup: Northwestern Wildcats (5-4, 2-3) at No. 4 Iowa Hawkeyes (9-0, 5-0)

Date: Saturday, November 7, 2009, 11:00 am CST

Television: ESPN

Line: Iowa (-16) O/U 45

Weather:  60s, Mostly Sunny, Very Slight Chance of Rain

Outlook:

Things looked good early last week as NU lead the PSU Nittany Lions 10-3 in the second quarter, but an injury to Kafka seemed to take the wind out of the team’s sails and they ended up losing 34-13.  Kafka’s backup, Dan Persa, was unable to lead the offense to additional points, settling only for a single field goal.  Persa’s post game quotes suggest he was not mentally prepared for the adversity of facing a tough defense, but there were glimmers of hope for the future.  The defense held up reasonably well for the majority of the game, but lapses in the fourth quarter lead to three Penn State touchdowns in four minutes when the game was tied at 13-13.  Fortunately, Kafka is expected to play this weekend since Persa demonstrated he needs a little more maturing before taking the reins.

If last week was a challenge, this week is approaching a suicide mission.  Iowa enters the game ranked No. 4 with no losses.  Although they’ve trailed their opponent in 8 of 9 games and trailed in the fourth quarter in 4 games this year, their relentless rushing attack, solid quarterback play, and strong defense have come back every time so far.  Statistically on both offense and defense, the two teams’ totals appear evenly matched (in fact, their average score per game is exactly the same at 25.7/game) but further examination reveals the only difference that matters:  Iowa has allowed 16 touchdowns (or 15.8 pts per game) against it this year…Northwestern:  29 tds (or 24.8 points per game).  The totals also hide the fact that Iowa’s tandem running backs Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegher both average more than a yard per carry more than NU’s best rusher.

The Wildcats have shown that they can raise to the challenge and remain competitive with better teams (of course, they’ve also shown they tend to perform poorly against worse teams), so this should remain a watchable game, particularly considering the Hawkeye’s penchant for playing from behind.  Unfortunately, it would seem that Iowa’s consistent pressure on the defense will eventually wear the 'Cats down and lead to late mistakes, just as it did last week against Penn State.
 

My formula for success is simple...they have to avoid turnovers.  If they do that, then they have a chance to score more than 20 points and NU’s high risk, high reward defensive approach just might produce something magical as the Hawkeyes are susceptible to the interception.

Pick: But don’t bet on it.  Hawkeyes 34 - Wildcats 20.  Take the Wildcats and the points.

Season to date: Straight up, 9-0. Against the spread, 6-3

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By Charlie Simon

Matchup: Northwestern Wildcats (6-4, 3-3) at U of Illinois Fighting Illini  (3-6, 2-5)

Date: Saturday, November 14, 2009, 11:00 am CST

Television: ESPN Classic

Line: Illini -4

 

Outlook:

Last week The Lowes Line had this to say heading into Iowa City:

My formula for success is simple...they have to avoid turnovers.  If they do that, then they have a chance to score more than 20 points and NU's high risk, high reward defensive approach just might produce something magical as the Hawkeyes are susceptible to the interception.

It wasn't an interception but a sack that turned out to be the magical play for the 'Cats' defense.  Early in the second quarter Cory Wooten sacked Iowa's Stanzi in the end zone.  The ball came loose and NU recovered for its first touchdown of the game.  Even worse for Iowa was that Stanzi's ankle nearly snapped in two on the takedown.  The life was sucked out of the Iowa crowd as Stanzi was helped to the sidelines, not to return. 

Kafka started at QB for the 'Cats but was ineffective as he could not run at all.  Third down conversions that he would have easily scrambled for were not to be.  He was replaced by Persa who looked better than last week and engineered and short field TD drive after another Iowa INT, but Persa is unwilling or unable to throw downfield.  Iowa quickly realized that and when dared to throw Persa would come up short.

NU led 14-10 at half and the second half remained a pillow fight as both offenses were ineffective.  Surprisingly Iowa was not able to run the ball on NU, even though NU was NOT stacking the box.  Later in the half Persa took a hard hit and was taken to the locker room for x-rays on his hand.  Kafka re-entered the game and engineered a FG drive with some pin point passing.  17-10 'Cats.  Iowa got the ball back one more time but the Wildcat D was too much for the inexperienced Iowa back-up QB.  Fitz gets his first signature victory as the Wildcats of Northwestern defeat the previously unbeaten Iowa Hawkeyes 17-10.  The SI cover jinx is REAL!  Oh yeah, and good luck to the Iowa back-up QB heading to the Horseshoe this weekend for the de facto Big Ten championship game.

This week the 'Cats head down state to Champaign Urbana to face the middling Illini.  This is the inaugural game for the "Land of Lincoln/Obama" trophy that replaces the Sweet Sioux tomahawk.  NU will have both Kafka and Persa available for the game but neither at 100%.  Kafka has unevenly improved as the year has
gone on and is the better choice.  Your quarterback must be able to throw the ball, at least occasionally, to win.

Illinois has plummeted from their Rose Bowl trip of a few years ago, and no one seems to know why.  Juice Williams is still there but it banged up and questionable for the game.  This game is really not about UI though as the 'Cats just need to play solid to win.  As always they must win the turnover battle.  Also the offense must have at least one long sustained drive each quarter to give the defense a rest.  The defense is decent but as shown in the PSU game if put back on the field repeatedly after several 3 and outs, they will break.

This is another must win game for the 'Cats if they want to go bowling.  Yes, they are bowl eligible but so will almost everyone else by the end of the season.  They need this game to guarantee a winning record and a bowl trip.

Earlier in the week I was very confident in the 'Cats but that feel has been dwindling.  Still after watching last week's game I have to believe in them.

The Wildcats win by a hair, 26-24.

Pick: Take the 'Cats, they will win (or at least cover).
 
Season to date: Straight up, 9-1. Against the spread, 7-3

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By Galloping Grapes