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UNLV Preview and Prediction
By Galloping Grapes
Matchup: University of Nevada-Las Vegas Rebels (1-1) at Northwestern Wildcats (0-1)
Date: Saturday, September 14, 2019, 2:30 p.m. CDT
Place: Ryan Field, Evanston, IL
TV: BTN
Line: Northwestern (-19.5) [o/u: 54, money line: NU (-1115), UNLV (+750)]
Outlook:
Let’s get right into it. Stanford QB K.J. Costello took one to
the chin, the Wildcats took one to the gut, and the Lowes Line bettors
took it in the tailpipe. It was a true shocker in the end.
I’ve spent the last 12 days with a 1-song playlist on an endless loop
pounding in the back of my head, and you all know that this time of
year my blood runs Deep Purple…
COVER THROUGH YOUR BACK DOOR
(with really big apologies to Ritchie Blackmore, Ian Gillan and Roger Glover)
Sweet Willie was a dancer
That the Lowes Line took a chance at
Because he was a Wildcat
He made electric shadows
Based on our betting tips
But none of us would beat that Line.
We even bet the teaser
Thought the ‘Cats would win a squeezer
Enjoy a little paradise
The lock was in our pocket
Then Hunter met the rocket
We never knew the reason why.
I can't deny it
When the point spread was blown
Oh, it's not the cover
But that we all should have known…
Feel it coming
It's knocking at the door
You know it's no good betting
Fitz doesn’t know the odds
The parlay doesn‘t pay
And now you see the score
And now you're learning
What's knockin' at your back door!
The 2-deep looked so fancy
The money line was chancy
‘Cats were B1G West aristocracy
The bloggers that Fitz toyed with
At closed practice in poor diplomacy.
Stanford’s QB got the quiver
Of a massive forearm shiver
Lost TJ to an injury
So no easing Hunter gently
Thrown in the deep end consequently
Suddenly he looks so young.
I can't deny it
When the point spread was blown
Oh, it's not the cover
It’s that we all should have known…
Feel it coming
It's knocking at the door
You know it's no good betting
Fitz doesn’t know the odds
The parlay doesn‘t pay
And now you see the score
And now you're learning
What's knockin' at your back door!
I can't deny it
With that scowl on my face
Oh oh, that f*ing cover
It was the hard coup de grace.
Feel it coming
Knocking at your door
You know we’re gonna bet the under
Now it's knocking at your door
Ah ha, knockin' at your back door.
ON TO UNLV
Until I started working on this, I had no idea that the Runnin’ Rebels
moniker refers to just the UNLV men’s basketball team. Football
and other sports are just known as the Rebels. Who knew?
Ironic too, as it appears that runnin’ is one of the few things this
Vegas team can do well. The Rebs were a top-20 team last season
in rushing, although their star RB graduated. Still, that dude
has been replaced by another good one, junior RB Charles
Williams. He set a school record for rushing yards by a freshman
3 years ago, then sat for a year with an injury. In two games so
far this year, Williams has logged 155 yards/game, for a 9 yards per
carry average, and 4 TDs. He’s got wheels, just the kind of fast
and elusive back we hate to see in the open field cutting through the
NU defense. Similarly, the Rebel QB, Armani Rogers, is the kind
of run-pass-option guy that we hate to see lining up across from the
‘Cats. Rogers actually might be a better runner than
Williams--but to be fair, for all we know Williams could be the better
passer. Rogers probably isn’t nearly as inept as he showed last
week, when UNLV got crushed by Arkansas State. But if he does get
a pass off, his main receiving weapon is a transfer from the USC
Trojans, WR Randal “Grimey” Grimes. He’s not just another runner;
he’s a big, tall, strong runner. You know, the kind we hate to
see matching up against the NU secondary. So, yeah, those are
three guys who could hurt the Wildcats pretty badly, and I expect to be
shouting “Get that guy!!!” at my television a lot on Saturday. On
the bright side, if the ‘Cats do get those guys, there is not a lot
else to worry about. All NU needs to do is make open field
tackles. Uh, which they seemed to have a hard time doing against
Stanford. Maybe it will settle our raw nerves to look at the
other side of the ball…
Unfortunately, that last paragraph might have exhausted my limited
football knowledge and insight into the UNLV Rebels for the week.
Or, it’s possible that there just isn’t much to say about the Rebel
defense. That’s good, right? I guess so, except apparently
the big secret Fitz was hiding during spring practice and summer camp
was that he and his coaches were farting around with two starting QBs
(again), rather than just picking a winner and getting that guy
ready. I will freely admit that Fitz knows more about football
than I do about anything, and he’s already earned his on-campus statue,
but these mind games aren’t fooling anybody, as demonstrated by the
now-annual pooping of the bed in early season non-conference games
against opponents who frankly do not give a tinker’s dam about Fitz’s
secret strategy. Hey coach, from the cheap seats behind an
anonymous Twitter account it doesn’t seem like coaching genius, it’s
looks like onanism. Maybe it’s not a mortal coaching sin, but
it’s become a venial pain in our collective asses. (Zing!!)
Anyway, UNLV’s defense might suck, but the Lowes Line lacks faith that
the Wildcats will take full advantage of that to tune Hunter Johnson up
for what promises to be a rough ride once they enter the B1GTen
slate. Much more likely, and frustrating, is that Fitz gives
Hunter and the offense just enough reps to start hitting his receivers
in the numbers rather than the antlers, then close up the playbook and
let the backups smash into the Rebel lines until the clock winds
down. Fitz will be perfectly happy with an ugly and unsatisfying
win (see, Rutgers 2018), and will believe (wrongly) that by slowly
driving the Porsche with the hazard lights flashing, like Joel Goodson
on the way home from the shop after dunking it into Lake Michigan, he’s
pulling one over on next week’s opponent from East Lansing. Of
course, Guido the killer pimp still stole all of Joel’s sh*t, sold it
back to him and cracked his mom’s egg, and I expect Mark Dantonio and
the Spartans to be similarly unimpressed. Whether that’s all
worth it to end up in a tenuous “relationship” with a hot blonde hooker
with a train fetish is a philosophical question that exceeds the scope
of this now totally off-the-rails preview, but may be revisited if the
Wildcats back-door their way into another trip to Indianapolis in
December. Bottom line--sometimes Fitz needs to say what the
f*** and see what the Porsche can do. But I can’t help but worry
that we’re going to be screaming WHAT THE F***?!??!?!? more than once
this weekend.
Pick: NU-31, UNLV-17. Wildcats win, but they drop the soap and fail to cover.
Season to Date: 0-1 ATS (ouch), 0-1 Straight up
The Lowes Line is an
e-mailed description of NU's
next
football game, with an invariably fearless prediction of the outcome
and
how NU will fare against what the other "experts" predict. Our
good
friend and Brother Marcus Lowes began the broadcast mailing in 1996.
The crack Lowes Line Staff (alumni Jersey Cat,
GallopingGrapes, P.S. O'Briant, Eric Cockerill, Joel Kanvik, Charlie Simon, and
MO'Cats) have continued the Line in memory of Marcus.
For
the 2019 season it has returned to HailToPurple.com,
for anyone to enjoy. Thanks to the gridiron brain trust at the Lowes
Line!
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