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Iowa Preview and Prediction
By P.S. O'Briant
Matchup: Northwestern Wildcats (5-4, 5-1 B1G) at #21 Iowa Hawkeyes (6-3, 3-3 B1G)
Date: Saturday, November 10, 2:30 PM, CST
TV: FOX
Line: Northwestern (+10.5)
Outlook:
After three losses to non-conference teams - never forget the Zips EVER
- our Northwestern Wildcats find themselves at a crossroads. Two
wins from the Big Ten Championship game and one win from bowl
eligibility, this 5-4, unranked team must continue scratching and
clawing to regain a “respectable” placement in the college football
bowl season (i.e., Holiday Bowl vs. a corp sponsorship bowl where you
have to Google the name to even find the location).
What Happened Last Week?
There is no nice way to say this: Notre Dame beat them with a
shillelagh. Quarterback Clayton Thorson did not play well Saturday.
Offensive Coordinator Mick McCall - don’t even get me started on McCall
- likes to open with simple throws on the team’s first ball possession.
Through the first seven games of the season, Thorson completed an
average 4.28 of his first five throws to start each contest. Against
Notre Dame, Thorson completed an average of 1.5. Why does he miss those
easy throws? How can we get Thorson into a rhythm early on in the game?
The issues became all too apparent in the second half of the game.
Thorson was pressured, hit, or sacked on 9 of 17 drop backs. He never
looked comfortable in the pocket, and Northwestern could do nothing to
stop the Notre Dame pass rush. In the third quarter - warning: the
following stats are graphic and may be disturbing to younger viewers -
Notre Dame had 209 yards and NU had 32. Cardiac 'Cats? Put an aspirin
under their tongue and call an ambulance.
On to Iowa. I HATE Iowa.
Since the 20 year “rivalry” started with Northwestern (self imposed by
former Coach Gary Barnett), I abhor Iowa. I don’t like them. I don’t
trust them. I hate losing to them. When people out here in Seattle ask
me about B1G vs. Pac-12 football, I grunt and show them a picture (see
attached) of the 1997 Iowa-NU game - in a blizzard - or I rant about
defense and weird scores and broken legs. That’s real football people,
and I miss it out here.
Iowa beat Northwestern 21 straight times from 1973-1994. Finally, in
1995, in Fitzgerald’s second season as a player, the Wildcats beat the
Hawkeyes. Fitzgerald broke his leg in that matchup, keeping him on the
sideline for the 1996 Rose Bowl. Northwestern is now 11-9 against Iowa
since that win. Fitz and Kirk Ferentz will coach against each other for
the 13th time; more than any existing rivalry in the nation.
Things to watch out for - Iowa
Iowa has always been a ground-and-pound style offense, but Quarterback
Nate Stanley has seen significant success this season targeting their
tight ends, T.J. Hockenson and Noah Fant. Both of these players are
athletic with catches over 50 yards. They are a force, and they are
threats anywhere on the field.
Then there is the DEFENSE. Iowa boasts the second best defense in the
Big Ten. The Hawkeyes have given up just 18.6 points per game, 86.2
rushing yards per game, and 283.7 total yards per game. Those are solid
numbers, good enough to rank 8th nationally in total defense. That
said, Iowa’s identity as a defensive powerhouse is shaky after
surrendering 38 points and 434 yards of offense against Purdue last
week, and the Hawkeyes will want to rebound to avoid extending their
two game losing streak. In addition, Matt Hankins will make a return to
the secondary after missing the past five games to injury and
suspension. Hankins was the number one cornerback coming into the
season, and the Hawkeye defense will be best served by Hankins
returning to the starting lineup this week.
Northwestern has allowed 24 sacks this season, and Thorson’s diminished
mobility will prevent him from escaping the pressure or beating the
Iowa defense with his legs. Freshman Running Back Isaiah Bowser brings
a semblance of consistency to the run game, but not what we expected
before Larkin’s retirement. NU’s struggle with the run game will allow
the Hawkeyes to focus on the pass rush - the best way to protect Iowa’s
secondary from suffering another poor day of coverage against
Northwestern’s receivers.
Things to watch out for - Northwestern
Thorson is the third leading passer in the B1G, averaging 245.9 yards
per game and a 60.2% completion rate. This has much to do with
Thorson’s arm strength and desire to get the ball to star Receiver
Flynn Nagel as often as possible. Offensively, the Thorson-Nagel
combination is a powerful threat - like putting up 220 yards against
Nebraska. Nagel is a precise route-runner who makes plays after the
catch, and he is effective on third downs.
Some of Thorson’s best games at Northwestern have come on the road,
including Michigan State this season and Iowa back in 2016. Thorson
also has 11 touchdowns…and 10 INTERCEPTIONS. The question is, which
Thorson will emerge from the pink locker room at Kinnick Stadium? If
the Wildcats are going to win this game on the road, they need a "B1G"
performance from Thorson. It will take great execution all around -
though most importantly up front - to put points up against the
Hawkeyes. Just in case Thorson needs an incentive: he is only 239 yards
from hitting the 10,000-yard mark for his career.
The Good.
Iowa is reeling after two straight losses, and Coach Fitz holds a
special animosity towards the Hawkeyes. Northwestern has been strangely
effective in B1G games where they are the underdog, and this is the
type of game in which the Wildcats thrive. Northwestern has been
sneaky-good on the road, but to beat a solid defensive team like the
Hawkeyes, Thorson must perform like he did against Michigan State.
The Bad.
Northwestern released its injury report for Saturday’s game:
Kicker Charlie Kuhbander — OUT
Safety Jared McGee — OUT
Cornerback Trae Williams — OUT
McGee and Williams went down with injuries against Notre Dame, while
Kuhbander has been dealing with a leg injury all season. Kicker Drew
Luckenbaugh could be back healthy after missing the previous two games
(he hit the game winner against Nebraska). If you are a fan at the game
and have NCAA eligibility (and are against unionizing
student-athletes), you might want to start stretching.
The Ugly.
Iowa pretty much dominates every statistical category in this matchup.
They are the better team on paper: better offensive line, better
defensive line, and better tight ends that are a matchup nightmare.
Everything favors Iowa in this game. They have a significant edge in
virtually every stat: even ESPN gives Iowa a 77.9% chance of winning
and Vegas has Iowa as a 10.5 point favorite. And yet...these are the
situations where Northwestern THRIVES. They LOVE to win as an underdog.
They especially love to win as an underdog against IOWA. Iowa has been
favored by at least 9.5 points against Northwestern four times in the
last 10 years…they lost outright to NU each time.
Then there is Kinnick Stadium. Kinnick is a daunting place to play.
With the fans so close that they almost touch the field, Kinnick offers
the ultimate home field advantage. The Hawkeyes are 4-1 at home, as
opposed to 2-2 on the road, and they have a history of playing well in
big home games. Kinnick Stadium has a way of getting in opponents’
heads. When Hayden Fry started coaching at Iowa back in 1979, he
ordered that the walls in the visiting locker room be painted…PINK.
During a 2005 renovation, they even added pink toilets and lockers.
Prediction
The Wildcats have plenty at stake. Last week, Northwestern came up
short, but the players assured the fans that the ND loss will not
derail their first B1G West division title in history. Northwestern is
finding its identity late this season as a gritty, hard-nosed football
team that avoids penalties and relies on the discipline of its players
to put the team in a position to win each game. The Wildcats are one of
the most disciplined teams in the nation, with only 26 penalties all
season, the fewest in the FBS. There will not be room for error against
the Hawkeyes, so discipline could be the edge for Northwestern.
I an curious to see if the offense tries to bludgeon away with OC
McCall’s ineffective play calling in this contest. NU ran the ball at
least 40 times in each of the least three games, despite results that
hardly embody the slogan, “expect victory.” Will the Wildcats ram their
heads against that wall of giant, corn fed linemen all day, or will
they exploit Iowa's vulnerability through the air, as Purdue did to
dramatic effect last week? If Northwestern wants to try and pound their
way through the size and athleticism of the Hawkeye defensive line,
this will be a long, cold day in Iowa City. If Thorson decides to live
up to his NFL hype, this game will get interesting. In order for the
offense to break through and put consecutive drives together, they must
find a way to balance the passing AND rushing attacks. It is a
difficult task to find success in both phases of the offense, but it
will be crucial if NU wants to leave Kinnick with a victory.
And don’t forget the defense: if this game is going to be an upset, it
will come down to the play of the NU defense. Force the turnover and
finally get some sacks. Fitz won’t say it publicly, but he LOVES to
beat Iowa too.
So how do they win?
1. Put up or shut up for Clayton Thorson.
2. Keep avoiding penalties.
3. Do not buckle under the pressure of pink locker rooms.
4. Force the turnover. Old school B1G football.
Let Under Armour put them in pink for all I care (just to match the visitor locker rooms)…just beat Iowa.
Pick: Cardiac ‘Cats Return. It will be an ugly, low scoring, B1G defensive struggle but NFL prospect Thorson shows up.
Northwestern 20, Iowa 17. Take the Wildcats and the points.
Season to date: Straight Up: 4-5; Against the Spread: 7-2.
Addendum
I am excited to be asked to pen the Lowe’s Line for the first time, and
I attempted to write this column in the spirit of its namesake, Marcus
Lowes. Some of you may know that I grew up attending Texas Tech games
(my father was in grad school and a band director). Later, I was a
freelance sports writer in Oklahoma covering high school football
matchups, although my press pass got me on the field for OU Sooner
games during the days of Coach Barry Switzer - and I was hooked.
Whenever asked why I chose Northwestern, I always have an ironic
answer: I went to NU for the football, naturally. I could get an
outstanding education while watching us get our butt kicked by
Michigan, Ohio State, Notre Dame, and IOWA...
I also found something fun…an original Lowes Line archive from 1997
against Iowa, written by the one and only Marcus Lowes. And the picture
I took at that very game - in a blizzard.
13 November 1997 12:08 PM
The Lowes Line, Week 12
MATCHUP: Iowa at NU (11:30 a.m. CST, ESPN2)
SPREAD: Hawkeyes by 9
OUTLOOK: The hated Hawkeyes need a victory like a drowning man needs a
rope. What started out as a promising season for Iowa suddenly sees it
scrambling for a bid to the Outback Bowl. And the stress is showing:
Tim Dwight admitted there's been more intrasquad scuffling during
practice this week than at any time during the season. Dwight says the
guys simply are keyed up--perhaps the trainer doubled their steroid
rations--but we at the Lowes Line say the Hawkeyes are desperate. Iowa
has a relative cakewalk at home against Minnesota in the final week of
the season, but without victories in both their last two games, the
Hawkeyes conceivably could be home for the holidays.
The Wildcats simply want to end the season on a high note against a
team that has evolved into a fierce rival. The youngsters got their
snaps last week; look for coach Barnett to pull out all stops, play all
the seniors and hope for the best. Can emotion carry a team with a
horrendous run defense past one of the strongest rushing attacks in the
nation?
Emotion--and a little luck, perhaps.
PICK: NU 26, Iowa 21. Take the Cats and the points.
SEASON TO DATE: Straight up, 7-4; against the spread, 6-5.
The Lowes Line is an
e-mailed description of NU's
next
football game, with an invariably fearless prediction of the outcome
and
how NU will fare against what the other "experts" predict. Our
good
friend and Brother Marcus Lowes began the broadcast mailing in 1996.
The crack Lowes Line Staff (alumni Jersey Cat,
GallopingGrapes, P.S. O'Briant, Eric Cockerill, Joel Kanvik, Charlie Simon, and
MO'Cats) have continued the Line in memory of Marcus.
For
the 2018 season it has returned to HailToPurple.com,
for anyone to enjoy. Thanks to the gridiron brain trust at the Lowes
Line!
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