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Minnesota Preview and Prediction
By Joel Kanvik
Matchup: Minnesota Golden Gophers (5-5, 2-5) at #23 Northwestern Wildcats (7-3, 5-2)
When: Saturday, November 18, 2017, 11:00 a.m. CST
TV: BTN
Line: NU (-7), O/U 40.5 (ESPN FPI: 70.5% NU)
Outlook:
The Lowes Line enters this week on hot streak. The last two Lines
have been well written tributes or literary masterpieces, and have come
scarily close to nailing the actual score. Well, faithful
readers, here is where those streaks come to die. Prepare
yourself emotionally for in-depth analysis that will contain no
allegorical allusions or any resemblance to what will actually take
place on Ryan Field come Saturday.
The Cats finally won a game in regulation, after setting an NCAA
Division I-A record by winning 3 overtime games in a row. And the
Cats actually played for overtime, much to the consternation of pretty
much every Lowes Line staffer. But, in the end, it was clear that
Coach Fitz might know a little more than we do. Which comes as a
surprise to exactly no one.
In contrast to the Cardiac Cats of old, this team is doing it with
defense. Statistically, it looks like we're getting smoked (the
last two quarterbacks have passed for 445 yards and 375 yards against
the Cats), but the run defense is stout and the Cats seem to make a
timely stop when they need one. For example, Purdue's leading
rusher had a mere 22 yards rushing. Each of the three overtimes
ended on either a failed 4th down play (Iowa and Nebraska) or an
interception (Michigan State).
The offense is not going to rack up the score on anyone; gone are the
days of thrillers like 56-53 and the "fast" and "superfast" offensive
sets. The offensive has been steady at time, if frustratingly
vanilla. Future Denver Broncos running back Justin Jackson is
approaching 1,000 yards for the season (and will have reached that
milestone in each of his four seasons, which is VERY unusual in Big Ten
annals). Jeremy Larkin has been a good change of pace back when
inserted in relief, and he appears much quicker than Jackson at times,
but that might relate more to teams loading up to stop Jackson when
he's in the game, because he represents the biggest offensive threat
for the Wildcats. Jackson regularly shows off his versatility,
becoming a much bigger option in the passing game.
Thorson has finally achieved a greater than 60% completion percentage,
which is a significant jump for him. And Fitz is getting him to
use his legs more, which makes him more of a threat when he drops to
pass. Thorson has distributed the ball very well through the air,
with no less than 5 receivers with 30 or more catches. The
receivers have been able to get open, but they have had drops at some
inconvenient times. On a third down late in the game against
Purdue. a purple receiver dropped a pass right in his hands that would
have meant a first down, allowing the Cats to run off more clock and
salt away the game much more easily. To make it easier on the
defense, the receiving corps needs to make more catches when the ball
is in their hands.
Next into Evanston rows the boat of the Minnesota Blonde Rats. It
is the initial campaign of new head coach PJ Fleck, whose "row the
boat" philosophy sailed him from Kalamazoo, Michigan all the way to the
Twin Cities, a voyage which included a stop in Evanston that resulted
in a controversial 1-point win. The Gilded Hamsters are cruising
along a strong current of a 54-21 pasting of the Nebraska
Cornhuskers. Either the Auriferous Gerbils are far better than
their 2-5 conference record would indicate, or things in Lincoln have
hit rock bottom and they have started digging (that sound you hear in
eastern Nebraska is Coach Mike Riley packing his bags). Minnesota
did its damage on the ground, with quarterback Demry Croft running for
183 yards and 3 touchdowns. It is noteworthy that Croft is the
4th leading rusher on the team, as Rodney Smith leads with 799
yards. Against the Huskers, Minnesota piled up over 400 yards
rushing. The Auric Vole passing game is fairly anemic, however,
with both quarterbacks below 55% of passes completed.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Flaxen Chipmunks concede less to
opponents, holding enemy offenses to 50 less yards per game and, more
importantly, almost a field goal a game less.
Given the new football leadership in the Land of 10,000 Lakes, it is
perhaps helpful to compare results against common opponents. Both
defeated Nebraska, though NU needed overtime to do it. NU beat
Iowa, also in overtime, 17-10, while the Tawny Lemmings lost to the
Hawkeyes in regulation by the same score. NU beat Michigan State
in a 3-overtime thriller, and Minnesota lost at home by a figgie.
And the Ochroid Squirrels lost to Purdue by two touchdowns. The
other two common opponents, Wisconsin and Illinois, loom for each team
next week.
In a way, for the Aurous Marmots, this is a trap game. Ahead lies
the undefeated and hated rival Badgers, and nothing would make the
Ski-U-Mah (I grew up there...and I have no earthly idea what that
means) crowd happier than to ruin the Badgers' perfect season (assuming
the Badgers can survive Michigan this week). So it would be fair
to say the maroon & gold have the game next week circled. So
they may be overlooking the 'Cats in favor of relishing the chance the
following weekend. However, in the same way, the 24K Woodchucks
might focus on this week's game as their last chance to get to the
postseason; at 5-5 overall they have 2 chances to win that coveted 6th
game and become bowl eligible. Odds would favor that coming this
week against the purple and white.
The worry in this game is the presence of a very gifted running
quarterback wearing a maroon helmet. Although the Cats defense
has played particularly stout against the run over the course of the
season (surrendering just north of 100 yards per game v. 280 ypg
passing), NU struggles against a running quarterback. Paddy
Fisher and his mates will have their hands full containing Croft.
Look for the NU defense to commit at least 8 into the box most downs,
daring the Aurulent Guinea Pigs to pass. If NU has success with
this strategy, Minnesota will play senior Conor Rhoda, he of the gaudy
54.1% completion rate (well, gaudy compared to Croft's 45% rate).
And so the chess match begins...
Prediction: No pressure here, as the last 2
Lines have virtually nailed the score. NU 27, Minnesota 21.
Cats defense slows down the Saffron Prairie Dogs' rushing attack enough
to win, but not enough to cover.
Season to Date: 7-3 ATS; 4-6 straight up.
The Lowes Line is an
e-mailed description of NU's
next
football game, with an invariably fearless prediction of the outcome
and
how NU will fare against what the other "experts" predict. Our
good
friend and Brother Marcus Lowes began the broadcast mailing in 1996.
The crack Lowes Line Staff (alumni Jersey Cat,
GallopingGrapes, Eric Cockerill, Joel Kanvik, Charlie Simon, and
MO'Cats) have continued the Line in memory of Marcus.
For
the 2017 season it has returned to HailToPurple.com,
for anyone to enjoy. Thanks to the gridiron brain trust at the Lowes
Line!
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