Matchup:  New Era Pinstripe Bowl – Northwestern Wildcats (6-6, 5-4 Big Ten) vs. # 23 Pittsburgh Panthers (8-4, 5-3 ACC)
Date: Wednesday, December 28, 2016, 1:00 pm CST, Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
TV: ESPN
Line: Northwestern (+5.5), O/U: 66
 
Outlook:
The Wildcats are headed to New York for a date with Pitt in the Bronx, where NU and Coach Fitz will get a taste of the Big Apple…Broadway, Times Square, real pizza, bagels that don’t taste like drywall, and so on.
 
The good news – Northwestern is playing in a bowl game.  Three and a half months ago, that seemed like a pipe dream after the ‘Cats dropped their opening two contests to fall to 0-2.  The first was the season opening loss to Western Michigan, which doesn’t look too bad as the Broncos ran the table to finish 13-0, but the still head-scratching contest against FCS foe Illinois State, a 9-7 loss at home, left many NU fans wondering how the ‘Cats would get to four wins, nevermind six.
 
The bad news – NU’s opponent is the Pitt Panthers, who not only boast wins over two teams that finished in the top-5 of the final rankings, they put up points like the Denver Nuggets of the early 80s.
 
Let’s recap how we got here.  After the craptastic effort against Illinois State, NU somehow managed to right the ship, going 6-4 the rest of the way.   Three of those four losses came against teams who were ranked in the final AP poll.  Solid wins at Iowa and Michigan State got the momentum going, and you could argue that NU’s best game came in a close loss at Columbus against the playoff-bound Buckeyes.  Expected and relatively stress-free wins over Purdue and Illinois came before and after what I would say was the most disappointing result of the season after Illinois State, a 29-12 loss at Minnesota.
 
Despite the mediocre record, there were several bright spots for the ‘Cats in 2016, the biggest of which was the play of senior wideout Austin Carr.  The former walk-on was a first-team All-Big Ten pick, leading the conference in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns.  He was a Biletnikoff Award finalist and a second team All-America.  Not bad.  What added to the accomplishment in my mind is that not only did Carr make dozens of great grabs throughout the season, but also opposing teams knew the ball was coming to him and he still got open and delivered.
 
Sophomore QB Clayton Thorson was another bright spot, taking a giant leap forward from his freshman campaign, even as the team recorded four fewer regular season wins.  Thorson threw for nearly double the yards of last year and tied the school record (21) for passing touchdowns in a season.  Finally, junior running back Justin Jackson continued his solid and durable play as he continued to climb the list of NU’s all-time rushers.  Jackson rushed for 1,300 yards, had a career high of 4.9 yards a carry to go along with 12 touchdowns, and is on pace to become Northwestern’s all-time leading rusher by the middle of next season. 
 
Pitt has the ability to put up a lot of points and to do so quickly.  They average north of 42 points per game, but they also give up a lot of points, surrendering an average of 35.3.  The strength of the Pitt offense is their rushing attack, where they’ve scored 35 touchdowns on the ground, and rush for an average of 229 yards a game. 
 
While it might not jump out in the numbers, the Panthers are also pretty efficient throwing the ball.  They average only 217 yards a game through the air, compared to NU’s 247, but they get in the endzone, scoring 27 times. 
 
This should prove to be an interesting matchup.  NU’s strength on offense is running the ball, while stopping the run is about the only thing Pitt does well defensively, giving up an average of only 108 yards per game.   This is similar to the ‘Cats, who are better at stopping the run on a consistent basis than the pass. 
 
In order to win this game, which could be a shootout, the Wildcats are going to need to stop Pitt's junior back, James Conner, who gets the bulk of the touches.  Conner averages more than 5 yards a carry, and if he can’t be contained, this could look like a basketball score. 
 
NU will also need to be very efficient in the air.  Usually a lot of passing attempts is a bad sign for a Wildcat quarterback, but this one could be different.  Thorson might have to throw the ball 45-50 times in order for the ‘Cats to win.  If Flynn Nagel, or someone other than Austin Carr, doesn’t have a big day catching the ball, I don’t think NU will keep up on the scoreboard. 
 
PICK: Pittsburgh 38, Northwestern 31.   Take Pitt and lay the points.
 
Season to date:  4-7 Straight up, 2-8-1 ATS

Happy Holidays and best wishes to you and yours.