Matchup: Northern Illinois Huskies at Northwestern Wildcats
Date: Saturday, September 6, 2:30 pm CDT
TV: BTN
Line: Northwestern (-7.5, as of Thursday evening, opened at around -2.5)
Outlook:
As all
the Lowes Line readers know, last week was a disaster in so many
ways. Many, many opinions have been written in the past week, but
let’s just review a few of the good and bad points. It’s late, so
please excuse any typos/grammatical errors.
Season:
This is a painful loss from an overall season success point of
view. The team needed to win its initial non-conference
games and “steal” at least one game from a conference opponent (or ND)
in order to qualify for a bowl game if wins over Purdue and Illinois
are assumed. While it had no ramifications for the conference
title, it certainly doesn’t suggest that this NU team is better than
expected. It makes a record of 1-8 in the last nine games.
Reading some online commentary, I am concerned that Fitz does not
recognize that the fan base did not expect a conference title this
year, but did expect a bowl game. Taking a non-conference loss
lightly because it doesn’t effect the conference record is not a good
route to take by the program.
Coaches:
Fitzgerald’s comments publicly over the last 12 months have
increasingly suggested that he is feeling the pressure, and not
reacting well to it. While I have no particular insight into his
personality, it appears his gut reaction is to double down on effort
and the existing plan when things don’t go well. That’s a very
athlete trait and can be outstanding when the problem is lack of
practice/execution /strength, but not so great when dealing with
tactics and strategy. One of the fan base’s biggest complaints is
an insistence to repeat playcalling that isn’t working and yet refusal
to try tactics that have worked well in the past. It’s time for
the coaching staff to step back and reassess what works and what
doesn’t. There’s no room for what they WANT to work, only for
what DOES work. Most of all, I also see Fitz sliding down the
slippery slope to becoming NU's version of Bo Pelini.
Specifically
related to the Cal game, there was both good and bad. The bad
included the strategy to telegraph a power running play on short
yardage, yet fail to execute (pointed out by many sources, including
Nate Williams, Kevin Trahan, and @InsideNU). It also apparently
included advising the punt returner to never actually catch the ball
(whether fair catch or return). Finally, the Cats showed a slow
start to the game on both sides of the ball. It could be excused
by it being the first game of the season against an opponent that
changed its approach in the offseason, except that we saw slow starts
of many games last year and the trend is not positive. Finally,
on offence, what happened to the up-tempo offense that caused so many
problems for defenses before the 2 QB approach? It’s as if the
coaches think the no huddle causes the problems (it doesn’t, defenses
have adjusted), instead of the up-tempo, quick hike that exhausts the
defense and prevents substitutions.
There
were good things. Most importantly, both offense and defense did
adjust over the course of the game and were much more effective in the
second half. One could criticize why it took so long for the
defense to adjust to the two QB approach taken by Cal, considering NU
ran a similar offense for the last two years, but overall it was good
to see both sides of the ball improve as the game went on. Along
those same lines, the fact that NU stayed in the game after being down
31-7 at one point of the game. That does show both strong
leadership amongst the players and the coaches. Finally, NU
had zero penalties. This is a good sign and reflective of good
coaching.
Offense:
Again there was both good and bad on offense. Seimian did not
have a great game with several errant throws, but neither did the
receivers help with multiple dropped passes. The end result
was a passing percentage of just over 50%. That doesn’t cut it
for a spread offense that uses short passes as a substitute for and
create space for running plays. Recall that percentages in the
80s were not unusual for the Kafka and Persa-led offenses. We’ve
already covered the dumbfounding playcalling on short yardage, but
given the playcall, NU’s line couldn’t provide enough push to gain what
was needed. It also appears that the traits that help
Seimian excel in the vertical passing game (i.e. patience to let the
play develop) is also holding back the short passing game (too patient,
slow to commit).
On the
plus side, pundits much more knowledgeable than I considered the
O-line’s pass blocking to be generally improved from last year.
Further, the running game showed signs that several players can be
contributors including freshman Jackson and Vault. Expect
progressively increasing workload for the two. Vitale was a
bright spot and there seemed a concerted effort to make sure he was
targeted, something that was occasionally missing last year.
Beyond the drops, the receivers as a whole were getting open.
Defense:
The defense started badly, which Fitz blamed on an unexpected game plan
(the 2 QB spread) from Cal. I’m sure there’s some of that, but we
also saw some shaky secondary play as well. Personally, I
attribute that to over-confidence and then pressing when they got
behind early. I expect it to be better in the future. The
potential biggest area of weakness is the defensive line due to the
injury to McEvilly, but they performed adequately during the
game. Their real test will be this week. Linebacker and
safety play continued to be a strength after the adjustment to
defensive playcalling.
Special Teams:
There’s no sugar coating it. Punting, punt return, and field
goals were horrid. The punter was either extremely nervous, or
truly bad. Let’s hope for the former. Punt return was discussed
before, but Cal punted four times, NU did not return one. It’s
also clear that the coaches do not trust the field goal unit beyond 40
yards. Punting and Punt return has to improve, period. The
field goal length limit may be a weakness all year.
Takeaway:
Things need to turn around quickly. It’s gut check time. A
loss to NIU would mean a lost season for two reasons: a six win
season would be next too impossible, and NU is a mediocre team at best.
Whew. That was long. On to the game.
Northern
Illinois University is a perennial MAC leader located due west of
Evanston in Dekalb, Illinois. The Huskies have effectively become
evidence #1 for why the bowl system is patently unfair to the lower
tier Div 1 teams. They have developed a reputation for
consistently high level of play.
NIU
crushed Presbyterian 55-3 last week. The offense’s strength this
year is a veteran offense line, so it comes as no real surprise that
the team ran over 70 rushing plays during that game. Just as
notable, NIU had not named a starting QB and played three different
players at the position. After the game, Matt MacIntosh was
named the starter vs. Northwestern. With a conventional offense, new quarterback,
and important game, we should expect a healthy dose of running plays to
start the game, followed by safe, play action passing later.
Eventually, depending on game situation, longer passing plays will be
used if NU’s defensive backs over commit to defending the shorter
passes.
The NIU
defense should be considered about average (comparable to NU’s).
Their winning strategy is as conventional as it is effective.
Control the game by the controlling the offensive line, protect the
football, primarily by using safer passing routes, and slow the other
team down enough that they have to take risks.
We’ve
already talked about the issues NU faced in the Cal game.
Obviously all those weaknesses need to be improved, but the most
important are: better execution in the passing game, major
improvement in both punting and punt return, and anticipation of what
the NIU pass play-calling is trying to do. I do expect the first
and last, but worry about the punting. It would be an extra bonus
if Fitz and the rest of the coaching staff fix some of the play calling
that has been ineffective.
One
thing to worry about…two more receivers been ruled out for the
game…Tony Jones and Mike McHugh. Jones led the Cats in receptions
in the Cal game.
I see the most likely outcome as a close game through the 3rd
quarter when the Cats pull ahead leaving the Huskies a touchdown short
at the end of the game. I also think there is a smaller, but
significant chance that if NU can get ahead by half-time, it could turn
into a runaway Cats win because of the new NIU QB and their reliance on
the running game. I think I’ll stick with likely and hope for
better.
Pick: The Cats win, but only by a touchdown. Take NIU with the points. Northwestern 35, NIU 28.
Lowes Line Season Record: 0-1 (0-1 ATS)
#GoCats
