Date: Saturday, Nov. 5, 2011 2:30 pm CDT 
TV: Big Ten Network
Line: NU (+18)

 

Outlook:  

 "Can we play Indiana every week?"  That was the cry that went out midway through 
the 'Cats' victory last week versus the hapless Hoosiers.  The Hoosiers were just 
the medicine the 'Cats needed to break their 5 game losing streak.  How bad is 
Indiana?  The 'Cats scored on 9 of their first 10 drives, with the only non 
score coming when they rec'd the ball with less than a minute to go before 
halftime and took a knee.  NU's offense was clicking on all cylinders as Drake 
Dunsmore was more involved in the offensive scheme than in previous weeks.  His 
4 TD catches in a single game is a new NU tight end record.  Also NU was able to 
run the ball somewhat effectively and had some 10-15 gains on the ground by 
someone other that Colter scrambling from a broken play.

As good as the NU offense looked, the NU defense was still very mediocre.  They 
gave up way too many big plays to a poor Indiana team.  As several recent 
articles have pointed out, NU's defense is very soft and does not reflect the 
toughness and tenacity of their head coach, a 2 time Linebacker of the year.  
This off-season will be interesting as there is no question Fitzgerald must 
address the continuing decline of the defense over the past 2 seasons.

All in all, it was nice to be back on the winning side after 5 weeks of near 
misses.

This week, for the first time, the Wildcats head to Memorial Stadium in Lincoln  
to play the Cornhuskers.   The Huskers are coming off a commanding victory over 
Michigan State where they completely shutdown the MSU offense.  Their 
performance earned the defense their famous "black shirt" practice jerseys, an 
acknowledgement to the famous dominating Nebraska defenses of the 80s.

If you just compare offensive and defensive stats, this game should be a blow 
out for the 'Huskers.  The odds makers in Vegas agree, as Neb. is an 18 point 
favorite.  But, this is the ultimate trap game for Nebraska.  They just came off 
a big emotional victory, they have Penn State, Michigan, and Iowa coming up the 
next 3 weeks.  Why would they worry about a 3-5 NU squad that ranks near the 
bottom of the country in defense?  The Nebraska coaches will be preaching to not 
look ahead but it is impossible not to do.  Heck, the Lowes Line is even looking 
ahead to NU's last 3 games in case this one goes awry.  NU always steals one 
game a year from a team that is better, on paper, than they are.  The last few 
years it has been from Iowa.  This year, many people predicted the big upset 
would be of Penn. State.  Too many miscues cost the 'Cats against the Nittany 
Lions.  No pundits will be picking the 'Cats to win this week.  No one except 
the Lowes Line.  

There is not a whole lot of logic to back-up this week's pick.  Actually there 
is just a lot of Hope.  This is the week the ball bounces NU's way.  This is the 
week they catch a few breaks.  This is the week Nebraska looks ahead and lets 
the 'Cats make it a game.  To win, NU has to win the turnover battle by at least 
+1.  If they lose the turnover battle, please disregard the previous 4 lines and 
all lines to follow.  NU's defense is simply not strong enough to go back and 
forth with Nebraska.  NU must run the football to win.  Yes, passing is where 
they usually make their yardage and those dinks to Ebert seem to work all day, 
but if the defense does not have to respect the run, eventually they will crush 
Persa.  The runs don't even have to be successful, but NU can not abandon the 
run.  With a little luck, NU can have a few decent runs and it will keep Persa 
from going back to Evanston in a cast.  The final touch is that NU is going to 
have to have something special happen in the kicking game.  Ventric Mark is 
going to need to break one open to shorten the field and provide a spark to the 
'Cats.  On defense, NU will have to load up against the run and hope that the 
inaccuracy of Nebraska's QB will allow them to survive in single coverage.

There was a time when Nebraska would crush NU with its suffocating D and simply 
running the ball down NU's throat, but not this week.  This week the 'Cats claw 
and fight and scrape out a Victory in Lincoln.


PICK:  Northwestern 31, Nebraska 30.  Take the 'Cats and shove the points up 
Nebraska's corn hole

Season to date  - Straight up: 5-3; Against the Spread: 1-7.