2009 Previews and Predictions

The annual college football magazines have appeared at the newsstands, offering their picks and predictions. The slate of previews typically begins with the annual magazines from Athlon and Lindy's and concludes with the Big Ten's August media event, when the conference announces its official front runner.

In part due to the economic crisis, and partially due to the shift from print to online media, there are fewer preview magazines for college football than there have been in years. Athlon and Lindy's are still around to inaugurate the preview season, and Phil Steele's publication remains the most anticipated, but others have closed shop or moved entirely to the Internet.

One upcoming, can't-miss preview will come not in print or on the Web: the Big Ten Network's extended preview of NU will air August 20.

Typically, the print prognosticators do not favor NU. Of course, most of these previews are written by magazines trying to sell copies, and favoring the biggest teams (that is to say, the teams with the biggest followings) is a profitable strategy. However, NU has occasionally bucked that trend and the conventional thinking: in 2001, coming off its Big Ten title, NU was a Big Ten favorite in many of the preseason predictions.

For the past few years, however, most media typically place NU at ninth place in the conference, ahead of Indiana and one school from the group of Illinois, Michigan State or Minnesota. There is also what I call the "Heinz Line" at the 57 spot nationally: if a previewer favors NU, it will place the 'Cats just above the 57th spot among the ranked Division I-A teams; a bad prognostication consigns NU to a lower rank. If the sportswriter has no overly optimistic or pessimistic feel for the team, he will invariably rank NU at 57.

As for last year's previews and predictions, the most accurate was from Mel Kiper. Kiper's 8-4 pick was only one win off, and it edged out very good predictions from Phil Steele and the Chicago Tribune. Sports Illustrated also came close, earning special mention for ranking NU so far ahead of Michigan.

There was a tie last year for the dog pick. The worst predictions were from Lindy's and USA Today.

As has been the case since summer 2000, HailToPurple.com is posting a recap of what the larger 'Net and print publications have predicted so far for NU.

The 2009 Wildcat Predictions:

Let's start with the big one: Phil Steele, who has had a nice run with predicting how the 'Cats will fare. Phil isn't as high on NU this year, putting it in ninth place in the conference, tied with Purdue and ahead of Indiana. Steele puts Penn State at the top of the conference, with Ohio State and Illinois tied for second. In his "Power Poll," Steele ranks NU 70th (the 57 spot goes to Missouri). Steele notes that NU has lost a lot of seniors, but that "they had 37 starts lost last year to injuries (16th most in the nation). While NU will not improve their record for the first time in Fitzgerald's tenure. . . the 'Cats should be bowl eligible for the seventh time in the last eight years." Steele later predicts that NU will play in the Motor City Bowl against Central Michigan. Steele does list Corey Wootton the eighth best defensive end in the country.
Last year Lindy's tabbed the 'Cats for last in the conference. This year Lindy's predicts NU will finish eighth, ahead of MinnyIndyPurdue. Lindy's also puts NU over the Heinz Line, at 51st. The magazine makes a big deal of NU's supposed light 2009 schedule, but does mention that NU will carry enough Big Ten wins to travel to a bowl.
Athlon placed NU at 53rd in the nation last year; this year the magazine is unusually optimistic about the Wildcats, propelling them to 39th place nationally, the highest 2009 projection for NU so far. Athlon predicts a sixth place conference finish, and ranks Wootton fourth nationally in his position.
This year The Sporting News does not have full national rankings, just the top 25 preseason (which does not include NU). TSN projects NU at ninth in the Big Ten, ahead of the Indiana wonder twins. TSN does call Wootton the best defensive end in the conference.
Turning to cyberspace, Rivals puts NU just under the Heinz Line, at 60th. That's good for a ninth spot in the conference, ahead of the usual suspects. Rivals is one of the few media sources so far to call out Mike Kafka, tabbing him with the "keep an eye on" title. "He has shown he's equipped to make plays with his feet, setting a Big Ten quarterback record for rushing yards in a game (217) in a wild victory at Minnesota last fall."
CollegeFootballNews saves its 57th spot this year for... Michigan. NU it puts in 60th, at the ninth slot in the Big Ten. CFN isn't too high on the conference this year, ranking only two teams in the top 25, and none in the top ten (Penn State is at #12, just ahead of Ohio State). CFN calls out NU's loss of Bacher and Sutton, and-- very interestingly-- mentions Andrew Brewer as the "key player to a successful season." Give CFN credit for one thing: they have raised the bar for NU. They write that the season will be a success if "the Wildcats win nine games again... and a bowl." CFN also calls out NU as the Big Ten team that will surprise: "The defense will be up to Pat Fitzgerald's high standards, the offensive line should be among the Big Ten's best, and the backfield will crank out rushing yards in chunks [making CFN one of the few sources to praise the potential of NU's rushing game]." CFN predicts 7-5 in the regular season.
Andy Gamm's thefinalscore.net typically predicts NU in ninth place in the conference, and this year he puts NU in... ninth place, ahead of the Hoilers (or is that the Boosiers?). By the way, lets review The Final Score's most recent predictions for NU: 2003: 11th (real finish: 7th); 2004: 9th (real: 4th); 2005: 7th (3rd); 2006: 9th (8th); 2007: 9th (7th); 2008: 9th (4th).
Webmaster James Howellcalculates weekly "Power Rankings" during the season. His 2009 preseason power ratings have NU in 58th place (he give #57 to hated Notre Dame). This is a considerable step above last year's 75th ranking preseason.
Dennis Dodd at CBS Sports ranks NU a little lower, at 67th, just below Minnesota.
Adam Rittenberg at ESPN's Big Ten blog ranks NU's secondary second in the Big Ten and its offensive line fourth in the conference, and he calls Al Netter and Ben Burkett All- Big Ten candidates. Rittenberg predicts between six and nine wins for the '09 'Cats and a second consecutive bowl season.
Other writers at ESPN, however, aren't so optimistic. Mark Schlabach calls NU one of the teams most likely to "freefall" vs. last year, and predicts no bowl game for the 'Cats. Bruce Feldman's prediction isn't much rosier: he puts NU in the Motor City / Pizza Pizza Bowl.
The media reps voted in late July, and this year's Big Ten media poll put Ohio State in the number one spot and the conference's official frontrunner, followed by Penn State and Michigan State.
Sports Illustrated, which was high on NU last year, is optimistic about them again this year, placing NU sixth in the Big Ten, just behind Illinois, and above Wisconsin. It ranks the 'Cats 42nd overall, just ahead of Clemson. SI predicts that the 'Cats will sweep the non-conference before going 4-4 in the Big Ten. However, SI only predicts the Motor City Bowl for NU, apparently forseeing another team or two stepping over the 'Cats in the bowl pecking.

We should also note that the USA Today Coaches Poll has released its preseason rankings. NU, though unranked, did pick up five points in the poll. The 'Cats got one vote in the preseason AP Poll.