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Media 2019 Previews and Predictions for the 'Cats: Breaking from the Heinz Line
Summer is nearing its end, and the annual college football magazines have appeared at the
newsstands,
offering their picks and predictions. The slate of previews
typically
begins with Athlon and Lindy's and concludes
with
the Big Ten's August media event, when the conference announces its
official
front runner.
HailToPurple has tracked the media previews and predictions since the
2000 preseason, and regular readers might be familiar with the HTP
"Heinz Line": most media attempts to rank NU nationally in the
preseason used gravitate toward 57th place, until recently.
The lid might be on, permanently.
Here is how media picks for NU have played out since summer 2000:
(Based on average preseason national rankings by Lindy's, Athlon, Phil Steele, ESPN bloggers,
The Sporting News, and several other media sources)
Last
year the media underestimated the 'Cats for the third time in four
years; no one predicted the Big Ten West title. Since 2000 the media
have underestimated NU twice as
many times as they have overestimated NU's season performance. Compare
this to the constant overestimation of teams such as Notre Dame or
Michigan.
The 2019 List
During every summer since 2000, HailToPurple.com has posted a recap page
of what the larger 'Net and print publications predict for NU. Here are the 2019
Wildcat predictions.
- Let's begin with CollegeFootballNews.com.
CFN believes that NU's offense will be improved under Hunter Johnson,
who should have a better passing efficiency vs. Thorson. CFN also
respects the Wildcats' receiving corps. The key game should be the
battle in Madison, which could be for the West title. Right after
noting that, CFN predicts only seven wins for NU, thinking that the
'Cats will stumble during the tough first half of the season. NU's
ranking: a mere 47th. CFN has tabbed NU for the Armed Forces Bowl
to face Air Force, a relatively low prediction.
- Moving on to the print picks, Athlon takes
a somewhat higher view of NU's potential. Athlon slots NU at 35th
nationally, up from their 46th
preseason rank last year. The magazine predicts a fourth-place finish
in the B1G West (behind champion Nebraska-- which is coming off a 4-8
year). Athlon predicts that the 'Cats will coast to a 7-5 finish, 5-4
in the conference. Athlon picks the 'Cats for a journey to Detroit at
the end of the season, to take on Wake Forest..
- The second major national preview magazine is Lindy's,
and this year's prediction by Lindy's is a weird one: the magazine
predicts NU will finish 28th in the nation, but only eighth in the Big
Ten, since Lindy's predicts that seven conference teams will finish
ranked-- including 21st-ranked Nebraska.
- In his preseason mag Phil Steele
puts NU 43rd nationally in his power poll. Steele is a fan of Paddy
Fisher: he named Fisher first-team All-American for the preseason.
Steele puts NU fourth in the B1G West, but he does not see the 'Cats
returning to a bowl (!). Instead, he sees Purdue and Indiana rounding
out the conference's bowl teams. Unless NU takes a huge dive this
season, Steele's predictions are likely to secure him the dog spot at
the end of the year, for the least accurate NU prediction.
- Wrapping up the print pieces, Street & Smith'spredicts
that NU will finish a disappointing fourth in the West, behind #1
Nebraska (what is with the Nebraska predictions??), Purdue, and
Wisconsin. S&S predicts
that NU just squeak into the Quick
Lane Bowl. Despite the season prediction, Street & Smith's named
Johnson the #4 biggest impact for a transferring quarterback. The
magazine also puts Fisher in its preseason first team All-American
slate.
- Internet statistician and ranking mogul James Howell has
been offering his rankings and game predictions for many years.
For the 2019 pre-season his power rankings slot NU at a strong 21st, good for another third-place pick in the B1G West.
- Internet source The Power Rank
builds a predictive model for all Div. I teams. For 2019, The Power
Rank ranks NU 39th, down several spots from what it predicted for NU in
2017 and 2018. The Power Rank has Minnesota winning the B1G West..
- The Sports Formulator,
another model-based Internet source, keeps its pessimistic view of the
Wildcats, tabbing them for fifth place in the West and a miserable 66th
place nationally. The Sports Formulator picks NU for the Armed Forces
Bowl to play San Diego State.
- Another Internet prognosticator is Mike DeSimone, who is much more optimistic for the 'Cats, placing them 22nd in the country, good for third place in the West.
- Among newspapers, the Orlando Sentinel is
one that provides a detailed preseason rank of all teams. The Sentinel just missed putting NU in its top 25, ranking the
Wildcats 29th, behind Iowa, Nebraska, and Wisconsin.
- Bill Connelly posts on SB Nation,
and his preseason B1G power rankings placed NU at the traditional
"Heinz Line" spot: 57th nationally. Connelly always rounds down when
predicting NU's finish, and this year is no exception. He picks the
'Cats fifth in the West, behind all teams but Purdue and Illinois.
- CBS Sports
released its national preseason ranking on August 19, and the Tiffany
network placed NU at 35th, fourth in the West. Jerry Palm predicts that NU will play in Detroit vs. Miami Ohio.
- USA Today's Paul
Myerberg offered his Big Ten power rankings during the summer, and he
put the 'Cats in lowly ninth place, good for 50th in the country, predicting a 6-6 finish
- Bill Bender at TheSportingNews.comis
never one to pick the 'Cats. He leaves NU unranked in his preseason top
25, tabbing Nebraska and Wisconsin from the West instead. He does,
however, see the 'Cats in the postseason, playing Texas Tech in the
First Responders Bowl.
- The Coaches Poll has
been released for the preseason, and Northwestern is ranked 25th, just
behind Iowa State (and just ahead of unranked Nebraska).
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