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Media 2018 Previews and Predictions for the 'Cats: Breaking from the Heinz Line
Summer is nearing its end, and the annual college football magazines have appeared at the
newsstands,
offering their picks and predictions. The slate of previews
typically
begins with Athlon and Lindy's and concludes
with
the Big Ten's August media event, when the conference announces its
official
front runner.
HailToPurple has tracked the media previews and predictions since the
2000 preseason, and regular readers might be familiar with the HTP
"Heinz Line": most media attempts to rank NU nationally in the
preseason used gravitate toward 57th place, until recently.
The lid might be on, permanently.
Here is how media picks for NU have played out since summer 2000:
(Based on average preseason national rankings by Lindy's, Athlon, Phil Steele, ESPN bloggers,
The Sporting News, and several other media sources)
Last
year the media turned in their third highest preseason predictions for
NU since 2000, but they still fell well short of the 'Cats' #17
national finish. Since 2000 the media have underestimated NU twice as
many times as they have overestimated NU's season performance. Compare
this to the constant overestimation of teams such as Notre Dame or
Michigan.
The 2018 List
During every summer since 2000, HailToPurple.com has posted a recap page
of what the larger 'Net and print publications predict for NU. Here are the 2018
Wildcat predictions.
- Let's begin with CollegeFootballNews.com.
The staff at CFN predict a 41st place finish for NU, citing the
Wildcats' defensive line and coaching as strengths and the secondary
and skill players as concerns. As with every single other media source,
CFN pins the Wildcats' fate on the health of quarterback Clayton
Thorson: if Thorson is nearly 100% this season, NU will do fine; if he
is not, then the team will struggle. CFN seems to think that NU will do
just fine, predicting a third-position finish for NU in the B1G West,
behind Wisconsin and Iowa. CFN predicts that NU will land in the
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl, facing Florida.
- Moving on to the print picks, Athlon takes
a lower view of NU's potential, expecting that Thorson won't be quite
at 100% and the offensive line might struggle. Athlon slots NU at 46th
nationally and fourth in the B1G West (behind Wisconsin, Iowa, and
Purdue). Athlon predicts that the 'Cats will coast to a 6-6 finish, 4-5
in the conference, good enough for a trip to San Francisco to take on
Oregon.
- The second major national preview magazine is Lindy's,
which has a nearly identical take as Athlon this year, also placing NU
third in the West, behind the Badgers and Hawkeyes. Lindy's ranks NU
40th in the country, two spots above Purdue.
- In his preseason mag Phil Steele
is aligned with most of the other print sources, also putting NU third
in the West. As with CollegeFootballNews.com, Steele predicts that the
'Cats will land in the Gator to play the Gators.
- Wrapping up the print pieces, Street & Smith's
predicts that NU finish a disappointing fifth in the West, behind
Wisconsin, Iowa, Purdue, and Nebraska. S&S also notes the
importance that Thorson's recovery holds for the team, and predicts
that NU will finish with just enough wins to earn a trip to the Quick
Lane Bowl.
- Internet statistician and ranking mogul James Howell has
been offering his rankings and game predictions for many years.
For the 2018 pre-season his power rankings slot NU at a strong 24th, good for another third-place pick in the B1G West.
- Internet source The Power Rank
builds a predictive model for all Div. I teams. For 2018, The Power
Rank ranks NU 32nd, exactly where it ranked the 'Cats before last season.
The Power Rank is still high on Iowa, placing the Hawkeyes (and, of course,
the Badgers) above NU, slotting NU third in the West and sixth in the
B1G overall-- just like last season.
- The Sports Formulator,
another model-based Internet source, sheds the optimism it had for NU
last year and ranks the 'Cats 56th nationally, the lowest prediction
for NU this year, and the only one that comes close to the old "Heinz
Line." Sports Formulator tabs NU for fourth in the West, just behind
Purdue and above Minnesota and (66th-ranked!) Nebraska. The site does
predict a West Coast bowl for NU, a trip to San Francisco to play Utah.
- Another Internet prognosticator is Mike DeSimone, who has NU in 37th nationally and second in the West, ahead of Iowa.
- Among newspapers, the Orlando Sentinel is
one that provides a detailed preseason rank of all teams. The Sentinel
is one of the few media sources that puts NU in its top 25, ranking the
Wildcats 19th. Orlando Sentinel writer Matt Murschel cites Thorson's
potential, along with strong possible performances by backup QB T.J.
Green, defensive end Joe Gaziano, and linebacker Paddy Fisher.
- Bill Connelly posts on SB Nation,
and his preseason B1G power rankings placed NU at 38th nationally, the same as last year. Connelly's preview is packed with detail,
and he is cautiously optimistic about NU's chances, noting that the
team will need to avoid its typical slow start in September if it is to
contend for something beyond a bowl game this year..
- CBS Sports
released its national preseason ranking on August 19, and the Tiffany
network placed NU at 42nd, third in the West. Jerry Palm predicts that NU will play in the San Fran Bowl vs. Utah.
- USA Today'sPaul
Myerberg offered his Big Ten power rankings during the summer, and he
put the 'Cats in sixth place, good for second in the West, just ahead
of Iowa. "...the Wildcats [are] Wisconsin's biggest threat in the
West." Myerberg also pins this potential success to Thorson's recovery.
- Bill Bender at TheSportingNews.com
is not high on the Wildcats' chances in 2018, placing NU fifth in the
West, behind Nebraska and Purdue. Despite the low ranking, Bender oddly
provides one of the highest bowl predictions for NU, projecting the
'Cats in the Holiday Bowl to play USC.
- The major polls have been released for the preseason, and NU is
unranked. The 'Cats pulled in 67 votes in the Coaches Poll.
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