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Mississippi State
EverBank Field
Tuesday, January 1, 2013, 11:00 am CST
TV: ESPN2
WGN 720 AM Radio
Game Preview: Mississippi State
At
this point, what is left to say about the context of this year's bowl
game for Northwestern, that hasn't already been covered from every
possible viewpoint? Win, and Northwestern snags its tenth win in
a season, for the third time ever. NU finishes the season ranked
in the standard polls for the first time since the 1996 season, and
will likely be ranked next year in the preseason polls, for the first
time since 2001. Lose, and we get to hear the same threadbare
stories of the three-generation postseason drought. At least this
guy hasn't yet popped up:
Coach
Fitzgerald has now coached the 'Cats through five bowl games, all
against heavy favorites, and he now has found a zen in preparation,
balancing fun and work. “I’m more comfortable in the (bowl)
routine,” Fitzgerald said last week. “Like a lot of things, the first
time you do it, you look back and think: 'What the heck was I doing?'
We’ve definitely tweaked our plan."
Against Mississippi State in the Gator
Bowl, Northwestern is now a two-point underdog, the closest odds NU has
had in a bowl game since Fitz took over, and the closest odds of any
B1G team the season (all are, of course, underdogs in the wake of the
conference's annus horribilis). The 'Cats should be ready, and it goes without saying that they will be motivated.
Will proper preparation and high-gear motivation be enough against
another SEC foe? Mississippi State is a well-coached, highly
talented team with one of the longest bowl winning streaks
in the nation. The Bulldogs took a 7-0 run into the middle of the
season, and were a top-ten team. Things haven't been quite as
happy since the end of October, when Miss. State lost to then-#1
Alabama, and have dropped three of four since that loss.
Make no mistake: the Bulldogs' four late-season losses aren't
indicative of MSU's current position. The losses came either
against highly-ranked talent or-- in the case of the regular
season-ending Egg Bowl-- in a rivalry game. MSU should by rights
still be a ranked team. They have a balanced offense, strong
defense with outstanding linebackers, and solid special teams.
And they will give Northwestern just as much a challenge as any of the
'Cats' previous SEC and Big Twelve bowl opponents.
MSU's quarterback, junior Tyler Russell, has come into his own this
season, scoring 22 touchdowns and just six interceptions. Russell
sprained his right ankle in the regular season finale against Ole Miss,
and he wore a leg boot as recently as last week during practices.
However, according to reports coming out of Starkville this week,
Russell has recovered. "I think, come the bowl game, I'll be
100%," Russell said on Wednesday. If he is, indeed fully
recovered, he will test NU's secondary as much as any quarterback the
'Cats have faced so far.
Along with Russell, the rest of the Bulldogs look to be practicing at
100% going into the home stretch before the bowl. MSU head coach
Dan Mullen has seemed pleased with his team's practices throughout the
prep period: “Pretty solid practices,” Mullen said, “I like the
transition back into game prep and it’s always a great week. We’re
trying to get ready to play a game like it’s (this) Saturday. Our guys
have done that, had the good focus, good preparation. We have to clean
up some things out there tomorrow before we leave but hopefully we’re
ready to play the game. Then you get the confidence builder when you
get to the bowl of reviewing the whole practice week again.”
Northwestern's All-American punt returner, Venric Mark, will be tested
by a strong Bulldog defense when he lines up on offense, and he has a
special teams mirror in MSU's kick returner, Jameon Lewis. Lewis,
who averages over 28 yards on kickoff returns, leads the SEC. One
imagines a possible MSU attack similar to what NU fans witnessed in
2001 with the other MSU:
Northwestern scoring late, kicking off, and watching as that kick is
rocketed back for an immediate answering score. The 'Cats kick
coverage needs to be laser-focused on Lewis.
Of course, MSU will need to be just as focused when it punts against
Mark. Mark earned his All-American honor by averaging over 20
yards on punt returns, giving NU a 17.5 punt return average, third best
in the nation.
When NU is on offense, Mark and quarterback Kain Colter will need to
keep the attack balanced. While NU's running game has been the
feature of 2012, MSU has had problems defending the pass. If the
Wildcats can get enough momentum in the air to rattle the Bulldogs, NU
should be able to open its running game. It might be tough,
however, to find success with the ground game initially, because MSU is
built for such an attack.
MSU will possibly have the same plan. The Bulldogs know full well
how NU played in its three losses in 2012: the 'Cats led all three in
the second half, and were just a few plays away from winning. The
'Cats never faced a steep deficit, and going down big, early, might
break the 'Cats. Look for MSU to try to open an early lead
through the air, with Russell focusing on wideout Chad Bumphis.
Bumphis will aim for the corners, and NU's corners will be keyed on
during the first couple of Bulldog drives.
So, whose early strike will succeed? Will MSU's attempt to lead
early put the bowl out of reach for NU, or will the 'Cats unleash a
balanced air and ground assault that will toll the cowbell for the
Bulldogs' bowl winning streak? Two things play into
Northwestern's favor. First, it's true that NU has not faced a
big deficit this year, but they have in the past, and we all know that
NU thrives on coming back. Even if Mississippi State manages to
go up early, NU has enough offensive firepower to hang on.
Second, it is entirely possible that we have not seen all the pages in
Mr. McCall's infamous 2012 playbook. There is speculation that
the Colter / Trevor Siemian combo may have permutations not yet
witnessed by mortal eyes.
Prepare to witness such unexpected things, and more. If NU's play
in such recent bowls as the Alamo and the Outback are any indication,
'Cat fans are in for an entertaining treat, and I suspect that this
time, the ending will be just as much a treat as the journey.
Prediction: for the first time this season, Northwestern goes down big
early. And, having staged as thrilling a comeback as we've seen
in the last ten years, the Wildcats wax their bowl curse and provide
the B1G with one of its three bowl wins this year. NU 38,
Mississippi State 31.
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