|
|
 |
|
|
Minnesota Preview and Prediction
By The Lowes Line Staff
Matchup: Minnesota Golden Gophers (2-1, 1-0) at Northwestern Wildcats (1-2, 0-1)
Location: Ryan Field at Dyche Stadium at
Central Avenue at Evanston at Illinois at United States at North
America at Earth at Solar System at Milky Way
Date: Saturday, September 23, 2023, 6:30 pm CDT
TV: Big Ten Network
Line: Minnesota (-11), o/u: 39.5
Outlook: That sound you hear is the rest of
the Big Ten re-jiggering their football schedules to make sure that
Northwestern is their Homecoming opponent.
Why not schedule the newly reestablished Big Ten doormat to visit your
stadium for a convenient pasting in front of intoxicated alumni?
What better way to get them to open up their checkbooks for generous
donations! Cha-ching goes the happy Big Ten cash registers!
USC and UCLA can only be salivating at the prospect of having the
Mildcats come west (young man) so they, too, can get in on the gravy
train.
In sunnier days, when Minnesota appeared on the Wildcat schedule, the
Line enjoyed significant levity at the chosen nickname of the team
hailing from the Twin Cities. One staffer took a deep dive into
Roget's for every possible synonym for Golden Gopher. And who can
forget the tour de force that was "Caddyshack" quotes seamlessly worked
into football analysis? Instant classic!
These days, we're left to ponder over the utter wreckage of the Wildcat
football program...indeed, the entire Wildcat athletic program.
As set out in the opening column, it's a pretty simple proposition that
hazing is wrong. The reality is that the problem isn't whether
the coaches knew, or whether they should have known something
objectionable was going on. There shouldn't have been anything to
know about in the first place! And we can't rely on the usual
"excuse" for such poor behavior by reciting the time-worn adage, "boys
will be boys". Women's volleyball and softball were apparently
similarly infected with abusive behavior. What's next? Will
the NU women's field hockey team be shamed into returning multiple
national championship trophies because incoming freshmen players were
subjected to a Tailhook-style gauntlet?
Sigh.
On the flip side, things here at the Line seem to be humming along very
well. As Exhibit A, I offer you the previous week's prediction of
the outcome against the Blue Devils, off by a mere 2 points (though
correctly predicting how many NU would surrender to Duke). While
it may have lacked the spit takes of the prior week's preview of the
UTEP matchup, it certainly nailed the sorry prospects of the Purple
heading into Durham. And NU was only too willing to play down to
those lowly standards. NU gave up almost 500 yards of offense to
Duke and was never a threat to make it a game. Bryant continued
years of mediocre quarterback play by completing half of his passes,
including one to the other team (of course). NU has very little
run game to speak of. The defense still cannot get off the field
on 3rd down; though, to be honest, Duke faced only 9 of those during
the game and rarely needed a third down conversion to continue a
drive. I suppose the silver lining is that at least we lost to a
ranked team? (It's an interesting juxtaposition between Duke and
NU. Both were moribund programs, and then NU climbed out and had
its breakout stretch, and could count on Duke being a relatively "easy"
game. Now those positions have flipped, and not only does Duke
clobber us, but they also troll us on social media.)
Into Evanston comes the boat rowed by PJ Fleck. The Gophers
currently stand atop the Big Ten West, having defeated Nebraska in the
season opener (NU, of course, is at the bottom looking up). That
opening game was about as ugly as it gets, and the Gophers needed a
highlight reel touchdown catch late in the 4th quarter and a field goal
as time expired to come back from 7 down and steal the opener 13-10,
ruining Matt Rhule's Nebraska debut. Minnesota followed that up
with a relatively easy win against MAC competition, and then was
similarly beaten in North Carolina by a ranked Tar Heel squad. In
fact, there are many parallels between the Gophers' and Wildcats'
Saturdays in North Carolina: Duke #21, Carolina #20. Final
scores, 38-14, 31-13. Deficit at half time, NU down 10, Gophers
down 11. Yards surrendered to opposing offense: about
500. Chances to win for the Big Ten squad...well, pretty much
ended at the coin flip.
What to expect this Saturday in Evanston? Neither team is a
statistical juggernaut. Northwestern, in all categories, is in
the half of FBS that makes the top half possible. In fact, the
only category in which NU ranks better than 100 is points
against. Similarly, Minnesota ranks worse than half in most
statistical categories, with points allowed being the one "good"
category (though they're only 32nd). Thankfully for the NU
secondary, Minnesota is a putrid passing team, ranking 123rd at around
140 yards per game. Less rosy for the NU defensive backs is that
they'll probably be seeing a lot of Darius Taylor, Minnesota's leading
running back, averaging 6 yards a carry, and easily eclipsing the
century mark in each of his last two games. Given their passing
woes, and given NU's inability to stop the run (Duke ran up 268 yards
on the ground), I would expect to see a steady diet of Darius
Taylor. The question will be whether NU can stop Taylor reliably
on 1st and 2nd down, and then get off the field more than half of the
time on 3rd. An aside here: it is pretty illustrative of
what oddsmakers think of NU's chances when the Gophers are favored by
11 but the over/under is less than 40. Apparently, the end zone
will appear to the Wildcats' offense like they're looking at it through
the wrong end of the binoculars.
On the other side of the ball, the Wildcats will have to find a way to
move the ball on the ground. Having a 4.9 ypc average against a
ranked team is nice, but if that only translates to 10 carries for 4.9
yards...that's just not going to do it. The Cats need to find a
way to keep Cam Porter at that average, but at double or triple the
number of carries. It is very telling that 3 of the top 4 rushers
on the NU offense are not running backs. That's just not a
formula for victory. Of course, with the quarterback play NU has
seen this season so far, why would teams be afraid of our passing
attack?
It boils down to which running back has more success, Darius Taylor or
Cam Porter. Neither team passes the ball well. Remarkably,
Minnesota's quarterback play might be even worse than NU's.
Neither team has shown the ability to stop a good offense. That
Minnesota is favored by 11 on the road is a bit puzzling, because the
teams are actually pretty similar in a lot of ways. I think it is
a pretty ugly game, one that probably doesn't bear watching on a
Saturday night, but I can see Minnesota pulling away late and covering,
as Taylor wears down the NU defense in the second half and the Gophers
put up essentially meaningless points (unless you're a gambler) in the
4th to salt away the game. At the end of the day, it looks like
this:
(C'mon...you knew there had to be ONE reference to Caddyshack in here!)
Pick: Minnesota 24, Wildcats 10. Minnesota puts up a late touchdown to cover.
Season to date: 1-2 ATS, 2-1 SU
The Lowes Line is an
e-mailed description of NU's
next
football game, with an invariably fearless prediction of the outcome
and
how NU will fare against what the other "experts" predict. Our
good
friend and Brother Marcus Lowes began the broadcast mailing in 1996.
The crack Lowes Line Staff (alumni Lone Star Cat,
GallopingGrapes, P.S. O'Briant, Eric Cockerill, Joel Kanvik, Charlie Simon, and
MO'Cats) have continued the Line in memory of Marcus.
For
the 2032 season it has returned to HailToPurple.com,
for anyone to enjoy. Thanks to the gridiron brain trust at the Lowes
Line!
|
|
|
