Lowes Line
Posted
10/1/21

 




 
Nebraska Preview and Prediction
 

By Eric Cockerill



Matchup:  Northwestern Wildcats (2-2, 0-1) at Nebraska Cornhuskers (2-3, 0-2)
Date:  Saturday, October 2, 2021.  Kickoff:  6:30 p.m. CDT (because, you know…NU is in CDT)
TV:  BTN
Line:  Northwestern (+11.5); Over/Under 51.5

 
Outlook: Now four weeks into the season and it’s shaping up to be a repeat of 2019-2020 season.  The parallels are frightening: Loss to MSU to start the conference season (wait, that’s every season), a major dumpster fire at QB, and a rebuilding year on the defensive side of the ball.
 
Let’s start at the quarterback parallel.  NU names Hunter Johnson as the starting QB weeks before the season starts (going against years of running the QB competition, at least officially, right up to the first game).  At some point in the first few games, pull the starter to replace them with the assumed third string QB, who performs admirably only to get injured and unable to continue in subsequent games.  Somewhat concerning that Hunter Johnson was the starter in both years we’re considering.
 
On the defensive side, it's apparent that tackling has been a problem throughout the team.  That's been a issue at the beginning of seasons in the past, but not to the extent it has been this year.  Plus, without getting overly critical, I think it can be agreed that the linebackers are not yet to the same level as last year and could do with a year of improvement.
 
So with that backdrop, let’s recap last Saturday’s game against the Ohio University Bobcats.  On the surface there’s a lot to like.  NU easily pasted their opponent 35-6, covering the spread.  However, considering the Bobcat’s quality (or lack thereof), there were many concerning aspects of the game.
 
First, while “bend, don’t break” is a fine defensive philosophy, NU should be bending against high quality opponents, looking for turnovers, and using the compressed field in the red zone to keep them out of the end zone.  Against the Ohio Effing Bobcats, NU should not be bending!  They gave up almost 6 yards per rush (see "tackling").  The only bright spot was the pass defense, but if you give up over 5 yards per rush to the Ohio Effing Bobcats, the rest of the Big Ten is not going to need to throw the ball. 
 
Second, the 'Cats disappeared in the third quarter.  Two drives to start that quarter, two punts.  The first drive featured 2 for 5 passing by Hilinski (we’ll get back to that).  The second was a three and out.  Against the Ohio Effing Bobcats.
 
Third, let’s consider the general coaching strategy against the Effing Bobcats.  Let’s imagine you are a college football coach.  Giving yourself the benefit of the doubt, let’s assume you’re a pretty good judge of performance and your starting QB is highly athletic, looks great in practice, but is literally wetting the bed in actual games and frankly looks panicky.  You tried infusing some confidence, but that didn't work (as it didn't two years ago)  You finally bench him (probably for good) and put in your third string QB (loved by his teammates) whose profile is way too risk/reward for you, but was fine for a game that required that anyway.  He gets hurt (which, you hate to say it, gives you the out so you don’t have to go with him again and his risky decision making), so you move on to your second string QB, another transfer that couldn’t stay on the field for his former team.  Choice A:  Use a game plan that gives this obviously repeat second choice QB some valuable experience reading defenses and throwing against an inferior team to develop confidence, with the side benefit of giving future opponents something new to consider.  Choice B:  Have this QB throw on 20 of 71 plays (12 completions for 88 yds), 5 of which came on a single drive?  I’m sure I could come up with some reasonable explanation to support Choice B, but it wouldn’t address the most glaring problem on offense.  This becomes more relevant regarding the next game.
 
Next up are the Nebraska Cornhuskers, whose fanbase appears apoplectic regarding the team’s perceived underperformance.  They’re 2-3, but are better than their record suggests.  The opening loss to Illinois was bad, but since then, they have rolled two weak non-conference opponents, lost a well-fought game against #3 Oklahoma, then lost a close one against a good MSU team. Are they going to finish first in the West?  Not likely, but could easily finish middle of the pack, which is probably about where they should be without the loss to Illinois (their schedule includes Michigan, OSU, Wisconsin, and Iowa, all potential stretches for a W).  As I said, this is a good team who has improved since last year, but they’re not quite there to be competing for a top spot.
 
As has been the case for several years, Adrian Martinez leads the Huskers in both passing and rushing, combining a 60+ pass completion percentage with 72 rushing attempts in four games.  The rest of the running attack is generally effective and spread between multiple running backs. This is particularly concerning considering that NU is poor in defending mobile quarterbacks.  I have no magic stats to back this up, but over the past few years my perception is that NU will often give up big plays to a scrambling QB, particularly on third down.  I suspect we will see more of the same this Saturday (no great prognostication there).
 
On defense, Nebraska is improved over the past few years.  Specifically (with acknowledgement to several other pundits including West Lot Pirates), they have developed a game plan of stacking the box to stop the run while daring the opponent to beat them in the air. It has worked well so far this season with the exception of Oklahoma, who ran over them anyway.  Importantly, it worked very well against MSU, who NU was unable to stop.
 
Are you noticing a problem for Northwestern fans in the previous two paragraphs?  A Nebraska offense that features an aspect that the Wildcats are weak at, and a defense that seems tailor made to stifle a team with a suspect quarterback.  Relying on Hilinski to beat that defense with conservative playcalling is a recipe for more 3 and outs than you can shake a stick at.  Not looking good folks.
 
I don’t see a reliable path to victory for our 'Cats.  They’ll have to rely on turnovers and some scoring help from the defense to pull out a win here.  I hope that happens, but I'm betting it doesn't.
 
Looking ahead, it’s going to be a long season.  Without a major change immediately, NU is likely to be underdogs in every game except (maybe) the last game against Illinois.  I’m going to be somewhat optimistic that they pick off a home upset against Minnesota or Purdue and beat Illinois to end up 4-8.
 
Pick: UN 34, NU 17.  Nebraska is set up to prove a point against a reeling Wildcat team playing on the road. Take the Huskers and lay the points.
 
Season To Date:  Straight up, 2-2; Against the Spread, 1-3.





The
Lowes Line is an e-mailed description of NU's next football game, with an invariably fearless prediction of the outcome and how NU will fare against what the other "experts" predict.  Our good friend and Brother Marcus Lowes began the broadcast mailing in 1996.  The crack Lowes Line Staff (alumni Lone Star Cat, GallopingGrapes, P.S. O'Briant, Eric Cockerill, Joel Kanvik, Charlie Simon, and MO'Cats) have continued the Line in memory of Marcus.  For the 2021 season it has returned to HailToPurple.com, for anyone to enjoy.  Thanks to the gridiron brain trust at the Lowes Line!