|
|
|
Nebraska Preview and Prediction
By Eric Cockerill
Matchup: Northwestern Wildcats (2-2, 0-1) at Nebraska Cornhuskers (2-3, 0-2)
Date: Saturday, October 2, 2021. Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. CDT (because, you know…NU is in CDT)
TV: BTN
Line: Northwestern (+11.5); Over/Under 51.5
Outlook: Now four weeks into the season and it’s
shaping up to be a repeat of 2019-2020 season. The parallels are
frightening: Loss to MSU to start the conference season (wait, that’s
every season), a major dumpster fire at QB, and a rebuilding year on
the defensive side of the ball.
Let’s start at the quarterback parallel. NU names Hunter Johnson
as the starting QB weeks before the season starts (going against years
of running the QB competition, at least officially, right up to the
first game). At some point in the first few games, pull the
starter to replace them with the assumed third string QB, who performs
admirably only to get injured and unable to continue in subsequent
games. Somewhat concerning that Hunter Johnson was the starter in
both years we’re considering.
On the defensive side, it's apparent that tackling has been a problem
throughout the team. That's been a issue at the beginning of
seasons in the past, but not to the extent it has been this year.
Plus, without getting overly critical, I think it can be agreed that
the linebackers are not yet to the same level as last year and could do
with a year of improvement.
So with that backdrop, let’s recap last Saturday’s game against the
Ohio University Bobcats. On the surface there’s a lot to
like. NU easily pasted their opponent 35-6, covering the
spread. However, considering the Bobcat’s quality (or lack
thereof), there were many concerning aspects of the game.
First, while “bend, don’t break” is a fine defensive philosophy, NU
should be bending against high quality opponents, looking for
turnovers, and using the compressed field in the red zone to keep them
out of the end zone. Against the Ohio Effing Bobcats, NU should
not be bending! They gave up almost 6 yards per rush (see
"tackling"). The only bright spot was the pass defense, but if
you give up over 5 yards per rush to the Ohio Effing Bobcats, the rest
of the Big Ten is not going to need to throw the ball.
Second, the 'Cats disappeared in the third quarter. Two drives to
start that quarter, two punts. The first drive featured 2 for 5
passing by Hilinski (we’ll get back to that). The second was a
three and out. Against the Ohio Effing Bobcats.
Third, let’s consider the general coaching strategy against the Effing
Bobcats. Let’s imagine you are a college football coach.
Giving yourself the benefit of the doubt, let’s assume you’re a pretty
good judge of performance and your starting QB is highly athletic,
looks great in practice, but is literally wetting the bed in actual
games and frankly looks panicky. You tried infusing some
confidence, but that didn't work (as it didn't two years ago) You
finally bench him (probably for good) and put in your third string QB
(loved by his teammates) whose profile is way too risk/reward for you,
but was fine for a game that required that anyway. He gets hurt
(which, you hate to say it, gives you the out so you don’t have to go
with him again and his risky decision making), so you move on to your
second string QB, another transfer that couldn’t stay on the field for
his former team. Choice A: Use a game plan that gives this
obviously repeat second choice QB some valuable experience reading
defenses and throwing against an inferior team to develop confidence,
with the side benefit of giving future opponents something new to
consider. Choice B: Have this QB throw on 20 of 71 plays
(12 completions for 88 yds), 5 of which came on a single drive?
I’m sure I could come up with some reasonable explanation to support
Choice B, but it wouldn’t address the most glaring problem on
offense. This becomes more relevant regarding the next game.
Next up are the Nebraska Cornhuskers, whose fanbase appears apoplectic
regarding the team’s perceived underperformance. They’re 2-3, but
are better than their record suggests. The opening loss to
Illinois was bad, but since then, they have rolled two weak
non-conference opponents, lost a well-fought game against #3 Oklahoma,
then lost a close one against a good MSU team. Are they going to finish
first in the West? Not likely, but could easily finish middle of
the pack, which is probably about where they should be without the loss
to Illinois (their schedule includes Michigan, OSU, Wisconsin, and
Iowa, all potential stretches for a W). As I said, this is a good
team who has improved since last year, but they’re not quite there to
be competing for a top spot.
As has been the case for several years, Adrian Martinez leads the
Huskers in both passing and rushing, combining a 60+ pass completion
percentage with 72 rushing attempts in four games. The rest of
the running attack is generally effective and spread between multiple
running backs. This is particularly concerning considering that NU is
poor in defending mobile quarterbacks. I have no magic stats to
back this up, but over the past few years my perception is that NU will
often give up big plays to a scrambling QB, particularly on third
down. I suspect we will see more of the same this Saturday (no
great prognostication there).
On defense, Nebraska is improved over the past few years.
Specifically (with acknowledgement to several other pundits including
West Lot Pirates), they have developed a game plan of stacking the box
to stop the run while daring the opponent to beat them in the air. It
has worked well so far this season with the exception of Oklahoma, who
ran over them anyway. Importantly, it worked very well against
MSU, who NU was unable to stop.
Are you noticing a problem for Northwestern fans in the previous two
paragraphs? A Nebraska offense that features an aspect that the
Wildcats are weak at, and a defense that seems tailor made to stifle a
team with a suspect quarterback. Relying on Hilinski to beat that
defense with conservative playcalling is a recipe for more 3 and outs
than you can shake a stick at. Not looking good folks.
I don’t see a reliable path to victory for our 'Cats. They’ll
have to rely on turnovers and some scoring help from the defense to
pull out a win here. I hope that happens, but I'm betting it
doesn't.
Looking ahead, it’s going to be a long season. Without a major
change immediately, NU is likely to be underdogs in every game except
(maybe) the last game against Illinois. I’m going to be somewhat
optimistic that they pick off a home upset against Minnesota or Purdue
and beat Illinois to end up 4-8.
Pick: UN 34, NU 17. Nebraska is set up to
prove a point against a reeling Wildcat team playing on the road. Take
the Huskers and lay the points.
Season To Date: Straight up, 2-2; Against the Spread, 1-3.
The Lowes Line is an
e-mailed description of NU's
next
football game, with an invariably fearless prediction of the outcome
and
how NU will fare against what the other "experts" predict. Our
good
friend and Brother Marcus Lowes began the broadcast mailing in 1996.
The crack Lowes Line Staff (alumni Lone Star Cat,
GallopingGrapes, P.S. O'Briant, Eric Cockerill, Joel Kanvik, Charlie Simon, and
MO'Cats) have continued the Line in memory of Marcus.
For
the 2021 season it has returned to HailToPurple.com,
for anyone to enjoy. Thanks to the gridiron brain trust at the Lowes
Line!
|
|
|