Matchup:  #8(!) Northwestern Wildcats (5-0) at Michigan State University Spartans (1-3)
Date:  Saturday, November 27, 2020, 3:30 p.m. EST
Location:  Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, Michigan
TV:  ESPN
Line:  Northwestern (-13.5) (o/u 41.5)


After an improbable, unusual, but convincing win against Wisconsin last week, to say Northwestern is trending in the world of college football is an understatement.  We'll get to the game and outlook shortly, but pick your poison for best story this week:

1.  NU currently 8th on the College Football Playoff ranking, higher than its US News College Ranking.  One win away from making it to the Big Ten Championship game.
2.  ESPN currently ranks NU's chances of making the College playoffs at 81% based on strength of schedule if they win out (don't be misled...that route requires beating OSU in the Big Ten Championship game).
3.  NU DB JR Pace was captured on the broadcast stealing Wisconsin player towels (as in plural)...seriously, check it out:  (LINK)
4.  Fitzgerald to the NFL rumors heating up led by the Jets (really?) and the Bears (uh oh).
5.  The Wildcats are a major topic on ESPN related to Joey Galloway's insult to NU players before the last game, Fitz's calling out Galloway post-game, and Rece Davis embracing the attention.


So much to cover this week, but let's start with last week's game.

Recap:  #19 (at the time) Northwestern beat #10 Wisconsin at Ryan Field.  Without going into gory detail, the game was highlighted by a stifling defense from the Wildcats that again allowed zero points in the second half, NU's inability to run the ball, and the Badger's five turnovers.  Immediately after the game, there was a note of incredulity in the football world based primarily on the crazy running yards imbalance and high number of turnovers.


Despite pundits turning from focusing on excuses for Wisconsin's failure to pumping NU as the feel good story of the week, official channels urged calm and a return to normality.


As hours and days ticked by, advocates for both sides pressed for support.


While we wait out the perfectly rational and reasonable discussion of the issue, let's transition to the presumption that Northwestern won the game based on touchdowns/field goals scored and counted and explore what we've learned so far this season in order of decreasing confidence:

1.  NU's defense is the real deal.  Opponents may make excuses, but both run defense and pass defense is very good.   
2.  NU's offense has become more proactive.  Likely a combination of an experienced, quality QB and a new coordinator, the Wildcats are throwing downfield to stretch defenses.  In addition, Mike Bajakian also appears quick to adjust the game plan based on what the opponent is doing. 
3.  Speaking of Bajakian, his newcomer advantage is disappearing.  The sudden drop off in rushing yards in the past two games (80y, 28y) is concerning.  Especially against Wisconsin, it very much looked like the Badger defense was looking for specific plays on first down or short yardage third downs.  That includes NU's complete failure to pull off simple screens later in the game after handoffs were abandoned.  Some of this may be due to opponents having a "free" week to prepare for Northwestern, but the same is true of MSU this week.

The "Big Picture":  Northwestern is ranked 8th with three games to go.  While Covid is creating some unusual "what if" scenarios, with the cancellation of the Minn/Wis game this weekend, the simplest is that if NU wins one more game (against MSU, Minn, and Illinois), they will go to the Big Ten Championship game, likely against OSU.  I won't go any further along that road, other than to note that OSU just got hit with Covid (minimum 10 players) and their game status this weekend will be announced Saturday morning.  

Outlook:
The Wildcats go into Spartan Stadium this week at two touchdown favorites.  MSU so far has a season to forget with losses to Rutgers, Iowa and Indiana, and only a win against in-state rivals Michigan to salvage the season.  The Spartans are dead last in the Big Ten for scoring per game and middle of the road for scoring prevention.  They have trouble running the ball and are below average defending against the pass.

Similar to previous opponents, MSU's game last week was cancelled.  Depending on Covid numbers on the team, at the very least that gives the Spartan coaching staff extra time to scout NU and likely more time for players to recover from previous games. 

On top of that, I think we can expect FItz and Baj to work hard to reestablish the run in addition to their noted tendency to run more on the road.  The line and running backs need to build up their confidence after last week's poor performance.  I also expect Fitz to go back to his typical conservative approach when he has the advantage. 

So, what am I saying here?  I expect victory, but 14 points seems like a big gap unduly influenced by the national coverage and some lopsided losses on MSU's side.   On the plus side, late breaking news suggests Newsome may have more freedom this week:



Pick: Northwestern 24, MSU 13.  NU runs out the clock to take another step in this unprecedented season.

Have great weekend and stay safe.

Season to Date:  4-1 ATS, 5-0 Straight up