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Wisconsin Preview and Prediction
By Joel Kanvik
Matchup: #10 Wisconsin Badgers (2-0) at #19 Northwestern Wildcats (4-0)
Date: Saturday, November 21, 2020, 2:30 p.m. CST
Location: Ryan Field at Dyche Stadium
TV: ABC
Line: Northwestern (+7.5) (o/u 44)
Outlook: It certainly has been wonderful
to see Northwestern roll up 4 wins in a row, including the last few as
a favored team. The Cats historically have not always worn the
title of favorite (or ranked) very well. Four teams that
Northwestern should beat. Four victories. That's how a
program starts earning respect and becomes self-sustaining. But
now, it's time to put on the Big Boy Pants (TM). #10 Wisconsin is
coming for a visit, and the outcome of this game will likely determine
who faces off in the Big Ten Championship game against the winner of
the East, and who plays against the East's first also-ran.
The game against Purdue went largely as forecast in last week's
abbreviated Line (hey, some Line staffers manage to turn out an
accurate Line AND go save lives! #respect). Northwestern
played good defense, kept the ball on offense, and covered against a
Purdue team they should have beaten. The bright spot on offense
was the passing game, with 3 touchdowns to Ramaud
Chiaokhiao-Bowman. Peyton Ramsey has proven more efficient with
the ball than quarterbacks past, with a higher completion percentage
and lower turnover rate. What was a little jarring against the
Boilers was the lack of a running game. Bowser was at the top of
the NU running back class, with only 27 yards rushing. On 13
carries. Two yards per carry just isn't going to get it done
against better competition.
The defense continues to play well. Until Purdue, Northwestern
had not surrendered a point in the second half. Despite
surrendering yards in the typical bend-but-don't-break Cats' style, the
Cats have had more success in getting off the field on 3rd down.
In three out of four games, the turnover ratio has been even; the lone
exception was the opener against Maryland, in which the Cats won the
turnover battle 4-0. The Cats have some great momentum, and this
Saturday we'll find out if they're the irresistible force or something
less.
Enter the Badgers. It's a little harder to get a handle on what
the Badgers will represent Saturday as two of the Badgers' games were
canceled due to Covid-19. The Badgers opened the season against
Illinois, and smoked Lovie Smith's charges 45-7 behind 5 touchdown
passes from new starter Graham Mertz, on 20-21 passing. Yes, you
read that right...the Badgers struck early and often through the
air. The Badgers' next game was last weekend, at the Big House
against what is increasingly appearing to be a terrible Wolverines team
(lifetime contract for Harbaugh! Please!). The Wolverines
didn't have much more success against the Badgers than the Illini,
getting shellacked 49-11. Mertz wasn't nearly as efficient, but
still completed passes to move the sticks and score when needed.
Statistically speaking, the Badger defense has been suffocating this
season. Wisconsin leads the country in total defense,
surrendering only 218 yards a game, and also giving up only an average
of 8.5 points per game. As is typical of a Badger defense,
linebackers are the strength of the defense. Yet many are
questioning whether Wisconsin should truly be considered an elite
defense, despite the statistical prowess. Wisconsin has played a
mere two games and neither opposing offense would be considered a
juggernaut. Northwestern's defense, with a larger sample size of
4 games, isn't ranked too far behind Wisconsin's, and the offenses NU's
defense has stifled are certainly better than Wisconsin's
opponents. Recall that Iowa put up almost half a hundred against
Michigan State, a team that beat Michigan.
One odd part up Madison way is that no alpha dog running back has yet
emerged. Two-time Doak Walker Award winner Jonathan Taylor is
playing on Sundays, so the Badgers have resorted to running back by
committee so far this season, giving three to four backs meaningful
carries. Nakia Harris, who spelled Taylor last season, returns,
as has Garrett Groshek, who was the third down, change-of-pace back in
2019. Jalen Berger has also shown promise carrying the ball,
averaging over 5 yards per carry.
So when the showdown for the Big Ten West crown kicks off on Saturday,
what happens? Can the Cats' defense continue to bend but not
break, and get off the field on 3rd down? Will the Cats' running
game show up again? Will Ramsey throw to the purple (or grey, or
black, or whatever Under Armour concocts this week) jerseys, or will
too many of his passes find their way to white trimmed with red?
Will Graham Mertz dissect the Cats' secondary like he did the previous
two games?
Time of possession is frequently cited as one of the more misleading
statistics, but I think it will matter in this game. If NU can
hold the ball like it did against Purdue (35 minutes), that means the
NU defense stays on the sidelines and doesn't get worn out by yet
another massive Badger offensive line. Certainly the Badger
offense is far more formidable than Purdue's (or Maryland's...or
Nebraska's) and the threat presented by the Badgers is more diverse
than at any time since Russell Wilson lined up under center. I
have to believe that Paul Chryst will review the Purdue film and see
that the secondary is a bit vulnerable to the bigger play/pass
interference penalty. Cornerback Greg Newsome II played solid
defense against top Boilermaker receiver Bell, but did get dinged for a
couple of DPIs. And one facet of the passing game at which
Wisconsin excels over most of the others in the Big Ten is tight end
play; Jake Ferguson (grandson of AD Barry Alvarez) made several key
plays against the Wolverines.
Unfortunately, at 4-0 and ranked, Northwestern isn't sneaking up on the
Badgers, and this definitely isn't a trap game. I see nothing to
indicate it will be anything but another Big Ten West rock
fight. Wisconsin will have to work harder to put up yards
in the running game, and will be in passing situations more
frequently. Northwestern will need a breakout day from the
running game, or the defense will wear down and take chances of victory
with it. At the end, both sides will emerge from the game
bloodied and bruised, but Northwestern's defense does just enough to
leave the Purple and White (yes, Under Armour, you read that right...)
smiling through the pain.
Final side note: ESPN's football power index gives Northwestern
just a 14% chance to win. Coach Fitzgerald, might I suggest that
be posted on the bulletin board next to the following:
Pick: Northwestern 24, Wisconsin 21. The
Cats' defense holds up against the Wisconsin offense, preserving the
victory late.
Season to Date: 3-1 ATS, 4-0 Straight up
The Lowes Line is an
e-mailed description of NU's
next
football game, with an invariably fearless prediction of the outcome
and
how NU will fare against what the other "experts" predict. Our
good
friend and Brother Marcus Lowes began the broadcast mailing in 1996.
The crack Lowes Line Staff (alumni Jersey Cat,
GallopingGrapes, P.S. O'Briant, Eric Cockerill, Joel Kanvik, Charlie Simon, and
MO'Cats) have continued the Line in memory of Marcus.
For
the 2020 season it has returned to HailToPurple.com,
for anyone to enjoy. Thanks to the gridiron brain trust at the Lowes
Line!
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