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Maryland Preview and Prediction
By Eric Cockerill
Matchup: Northwestern Wildcats (2-3, 0-2) at Maryland Terrapins (3-2, 1-1)
Date: Saturday, Oct. 14, 2017, 2:30 p.m. CDT
TV: ESPN2
Line: NU (-3) (O/U 49.5)
Outlook:
Northwestern lost last week to Penn State, 31-7. While the loss
was expected against a better team ranked #4 at the time, the game was
notable for both the complete offensive ineptitude (5-19 on third down
conversions) and the ejection of two of NU’s defensive players, Paddy
Fisher (LB – obviously correct call) and Godwin Igwebuike (S –
questionable call), who will both miss the first half of the Maryland
game. The defense played relatively well in the first half
(holding Heisman candidate Barkley to -1 yards) only to break after too
much time on the field in the second half. To demonstrate the
offensive performance, I offer the second half drive summaries:
3 plays, 5 yards – punt
3 plays, -7 yards – punt
3 plays, 2 yards – punt
4 plays, 11 yards – punt
3 plays, -2 yards – punt
3 plays, -5 yards – punt
3 plays, 3 yards – punt
9 plays, 80 yards – TD (after it didn’t matter and PSU second or third string playing)
My commentary on the state of Wildcat football: This issues are
obvious. The defensive backfield is thin and has been for the
last two years. Injuries (which are inevitable) create a weak
link, particularly late in the game. The offense lacks adequate
receivers to create downfield chances and the coaching staff is unable
or unwilling to get creative to provide quality chances for
success. Option plays, misdirection…long gone. Play
action…ineffective if the team is unwilling/able to make downfield
catches. This means NU offensive players must match up one-on-one
with defensive players that are expecting the obvious play, which NU
delivers. Against bigger programs, that puts NU players at a
disadvantage, particularly on the line. I predict more of the
same as Fitz believes the almighty turnover is the only stat that
matters. Expect mediocrity.
Next up is the Maryland Terrapins. I’ll offer my obligatory snide
comments on the opposing teams…they call themselves the “Terps” and
have the worst helmets in NCAA football. Moving on….
Maryland is playing better than expected this year with losses only to
Central Florida (who may very well be this year’s version of 2016’s
WMU) and OSU, and includes a win against Minnesota away. The last
few years, Maryland has been hamstrung by season ending injuries to
their quarterbacks, and this year is no exception. Against OSU, their
third-string QB started and was injured in the fourth quarter.
Although he is expected to play against NU, it remains to be seen if he
can finish the game. That said, the Twerps are averaging over 33
points per game with backups to NU’s 25. The fourth-string backup
is inexperienced, but is said to be a very good runner.
Their defense is mediocre against better offenses (particularly
passing), but luckily for them they won’t face one this week.
There are no true standouts on their defensive side of the ball.
The secret for the Cats may very well be passing downfield to open up
running room, but that would go against the current philosophy and
ability.
My prediction is based on the risk-reward profile of both coaches, the
game in their stadium, missing key defensive players, and the ability
of Maryland to score points regardless of who is behind center.
Maryland will throw downfield (into a depleted Cat secondary) to score
points and open up space. They’d be happy with a high scoring
affair. NU will try to play it safe. Unfortunately, those
strategies would appear to play to the Twerps strengths and NU’s
weaknesses. That, of course, could backfire if they have to rely
on their fourth string QB, but I'm not basing my prediction on hope.
PICK: Maryland wins. Give the points and take the ugly helmets.
Terps 27, Cats 24.
Season to date: 4-1 straight up, 1-4 ATS
The Lowes Line is an
e-mailed description of NU's
next
football game, with an invariably fearless prediction of the outcome
and
how NU will fare against what the other "experts" predict. Our
good
friend and Brother Marcus Lowes began the broadcast mailing in 1996.
The crack Lowes Line Staff (alumni Jersey Cat,
GallopingGrapes, Eric Cockerill, Joel Kanvik, Charlie Simon, and
MO'Cats) have continued the Line in memory of Marcus.
For
the 2017 season it has returned to HailToPurple.com,
for anyone to enjoy. Thanks to the gridiron brain trust at the Lowes
Line!
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