Match-up:  Northwestern Wildcats (5-6, 4-4) vs Illinois Illini (3-8, 2-6)
Date:  Saturday, November 26, 2016, 11:00 am CST
TV:  BTN
Line:  NU -17

 
Outlook:
NU wraps up their regular season at home against the Illini.  With the expected win, Northwestern will end the season with a .500 record.  While technically that may win the Cats a berth in a very low tier bowl, it can hardly be called a successful season.  Some surprises on both sides of the win/loss line.  Let’s review:
 
Western Michigan - Loss                  
Huge disappointment at the time, but WMU went on to an 11-0 record and ranked at 13th.  Not as horrible a loss as it felt like at the time.
 
Illinois State University - Loss
Considering that ISU is Division I-AA and has a 5-6 record, this was potentially one of the worst losses of Fitz’s tenure, delivered with conservative playcalling made more baffling by later offensive success.
 
Duke – Win
At last, a win against a poor Duke team.
 
Nebraska – Loss
A competitive loss against a ranked opponent, NU was in the game through the middle of the third quarter.  At this point in the season, a daunting task remained for respectability.
 
Iowa – Win
A surprise win as the offense suddenly came alive.  This Lowes Line contributor wonders if this was the week that Fitz and the coaching staff realized the defense was not going to recover its form from the previous season.
 
MSU – Win
Even coming off the previous week’s surprise performance, a complete shock.  NU drops 54 points against MSU in their stadium to put a nail in the coffin that was the Spartans’ season.
 
Indiana – Win
A comfortable win for homecoming as the Cats get ahead early and coast through the second half.
 
Ohio State – Loss
A not unexpected loss, but the team played the Buckeyes tough to the end. 
 
Wisconsin – Loss
Another expected loss against a highly ranked opponent, though NU’s inability to stop Wisconsin’s running game at the end of the game bodes poorly for the subsequent Minnesota game.
 
Purdue – Win
A win on the road with the offense again showing that it can put big numbers on the board when Thorson is executing and the coaches are aggressive.
 
Minnesota – Loss
In what seemed like a letdown loss, the Cats’ offense suddenly sputters and is unable to sustain drives until midway through the 3rd quarter and cannot recover.  One of the classic examples of leaving the defense on the field for too much time.
 
As stated in the opening, a roller coaster season.  Huge dud against ISU and a disappointing performance against Minnesota, offset with great wins against Iowa and especially Michigan State.  Hate to say it, but a win against Illinois salvages a respectable, but uninspiring season, while a loss would result in a failed season.

This week the Cats face a still recovering Illinois team at home.  The Illini are coached by former Bucs and Bears coach Lovie Smith.  Expect Lovie to return Illinois to respectability sooner rather than later as both recruiting and coaching have improved, but sooner is not this year.  The 3-8 Illini are clearly still feeling the hangover from this disastrous tenure of Tim Beckman followed by a year in “interim” limbo, including the embarrassing extension then firing of Bill Cubit last winter.  Their one bright spot this year was a win against MSU (sound familiar?).
 
The Illini rely on a strong running game, particularly with big plays, but have a weak passing attack that cannot balance that strength.  On defense, they have strong individual players but are unable to stop the run consistently.
 
Expect NU to focus on RB Justin Jackson to set up Thorson and Carr in the passing game if successful.  As long as they have some progress running on first and second down initially, there should be no danger over the course of the game.  If NU doesn’t get too conservative and keep the Illini close (or doesn't adjust a la the ISU game), “expect victory”.  On defense, we should see NU stack the box to stop the run, thus forcing third down passing and hopefully an interception or three.


Pick: Northwestern 31, Illinois 17
 
'Cats win but don't cover

Season to date:  3-7 straight up, 2-7-1 ATS