Lowes Line
Posted
10/20/16

 




 
Indiana Preview and Prediction
 

By Jersey Cat



Matchup: Indiana Hoosiers (3-3, 1-2) at Northwestern Wildcats (3-3, 2-1)
Date: Saturday, October 22, 2016, 11:00 am CDT
TV: BTN
Line: Northwestern (-1.5); O/U: 52.5
 
Outlook:
Did somebody get the license plate on that offensive juggernaut that plowed through East Lansing last weekend?  Many a Northwestern fan were raising an eyebrow at the display put forth by the Wildcats as NU scored more points than a visiting team has ever scored at Michigan State.  The Wildcats managed to give up points on bad, and then fluky, plays. But rather than wilt, they responded. 
 
It didn’t start well, with Michigan State getting a pick-six before the first quarter was half over to take a 14-0 lead.  Then something incredible happened.  A Wildcat touchdown, another one, a safety, a field goal, and NU had a turned a 14-0 deficit into a 19-17 lead at the half. 
 
The third quarter was about as exciting as they come.  NU came out of the gate firing in the second half, putting up two TDs to take a 33-17 lead, but Sparty came back with TD passes of 59 and 86 yards after switching quarterbacks to get back within two at 33-31.  Solomon Vault took the ensuing kickoff to the house for the ‘Cats to take the lead back to nine, which is as close as Sparty would get the rest of the way.
 
Justin Jackson continues to be a workhorse.  He went for 188 yards on 34 carries against Michigan State.  The more you see of him, the more you are impressed.  More quick than fast, Jackson seems to always find a way to get positive yardage, and is about as good as they come in waiting for his block to develop to spring a big run.  His two touchdowns in East Lansing were things of beauty.
 
Clayton Thorson, even with a pick-six, had the game of his career to date.  He hit on 77% of his passes, going 27 of 35 for 281 yards, while throwing for 3 touchdowns and running for another.  Wideout Austin Carr continued his brilliance with 11 catches for 130 yards and 2 TDs. 
 
Even the defense deserves some credit.  You might think with Sparty scoring 40 points it was a disaster, but with a pick-six, a fluke TD that hit DB Godwin Igwebuike twice on a bomb, and a blocked punt that turned into a field goal, the defense was pretty good.  NU got four sacks, and stopped the MSU rushing attack cold.
 
On top of it all, this Lowes Liner may have been most impressed by the aggressive playcalling on offense with a lead.  A beautiful draw on 3rd and 9 that goes for a touchdown?  A pass to the end zone on 4th & 6 for another TD?  Have we finally turned a corner?
 
Exciting, yes, and certainly yearning for more, but forgive me if I’m not yet drinking the Kool-Aid.  Northwestern goes on the road and wins a game or two as a sizeable underdog.  They come back home, expectations are heightened, and NU is a favorite in Evanston.  What does this scenario have in common with The Godfather, Caddyshack, and Animal House?  It’s that we’ve seen this movie before.
 
Not sure why, and I may be completely off base, but it seems the strategy and/or execution is different at home or as a favorite.  Someone of you can go look it up, but anecdotally, it just seems that way. 
 
Are the Wildcats a better team than Indiana?  I would say yes, but this is not your father’s Hoosier football team.   Indiana has not only played well, but been competitive in all three of their losses to Wake Forest, Nebraska, and Ohio State.  They have a much-improved defense from a year ago, which has allowed them to stay in those games, and they’ll probably get to a bowl game for the second year in a row, which hasn’t happened in Bloomington in a quarter century.
 
How will the ‘Cats come out at home after two big wins on the road?  The defense looks good, and the offense is starting to click.  Will it be enough, or will the weight of expectations be too much for NU to get the W?
 
As for the movies, we know how they end:  Michael has the heads of the five families knocked off, Bushwood Country Club is decimated by Carl’s explosives, and the Deltas exact their revenge at being kicked off campus.  Similarly, NU fails to live up to expectations at home, blowing a winnable game late.
 
Pick:  Indiana 27, Northwestern 24.  Take the Hoosiers and the points.

Season to Date: 0-5 straight up, 1-3-1 against the spread. (clearly for entertainment value only)






The Lowes Line is an e-mailed description of NU's next football game, with an invariably fearless prediction of the outcome and how NU will fare against what the other "experts" predict.  Our good friend and Brother Marcus Lowes began the broadcast mailing in 1996.  The crack Lowes Line Staff (alumni Jersey Cat, GallopingGrapes, Eric Cockerill, Joel Kanvik, Charlie Simon, and MO'Cats) continued the Line in memory of Marcus, beginning in 1999.  For the 2016 season it has returned to HailToPurple.com, for anyone to enjoy.  Thanks to the gridiron brain trust at the Lowes Line!