Matchup: Duke University Blue Devils (1-1, 0-1 ACC) at Northwestern Wildcats (0-2, 0-0)
Date: Saturday, September 17, 2016, 7:10 pm CDT
TV: BTN
Line: Less befuddling than the opening line.  But still, befuddling.  NU (-3.5)

Outlook:

At the top of President Morton Shapiro’s inbox this morning:

September 10, 2016
President Morton Shapiro
Northwestern University
633 Clark Street
Evanston, IL 60208

Dear President Shapiro:

It is with sincere regret that I must inform you that, due to circumstances within your athletic department’s control, effectively immediately Northwestern University’s football membership in the Big Ten athletic conference is hereby revoked.  The Big Ten prides itself on a sterling image among the Power 5 conferences, and the Wildcats’ most recent performance against Football Championship Series participant Illinois State threatens to tarnish that reputation to an intolerable extent.  If you have any questions about this decision, I refer you to the game tape from Saturday which should provide all of the justification necessary.
If Northwestern University is interested in continuing its football program, may I suggest that you concentrate your search on the interscholastic level.  It is my estimation that even attempting to compete at a Division III level might be a bit difficult, as Mount Union and University of Wisconsin at Whitewater are formidable opponents.  Perhaps the Central Suburban League of the Illinois High School Association could offer good, local competition.

Sincerely yours,
James Delaney
Commissioner, B1G Conference

P.S. Have a nice day.

* * * * *

Remember a while back when rumors were circulating that another, bigger-name university was going to approach Coach Pat Fitzgerald and lure him away with a much bigger contract and better perks?  And how we all thought that was a BAD thing?

* * * * *

When all of the Lowes Line staff was enrolled at Northwestern, the kind of effort and low coaching quality witnessed this past Satruday was on display every Saturday at Dyche Stadium.  All due respect to Coach Francis Peay and the student-athletes that lined up in purple and white week in and week out, but the Wildcats of the time were vastly outmanned and outcoached.  Cries of, “Break their hearts!  Score on ‘em!” were commonplace among those brave enough to sit on the home side of the stadium.  Fans amused themselves by throwing marshmallows at each other and leaving with 5 minutes left in the first half to go get blind drunk in the parking lot; the outcome of the game was sealed before halftime, anyway.

But then someone with the audacity to believe NU football could be more than a laughing stock came calling, promising to “take the Purple to Pasadena.”  And the catchphrase “Expect Victory” was born.  The student-athletes recruited were better football players, including a certain linebacker that now leads the team in a far different capacity.  Though it may have been mocked as a bit of hollow boasting, a trip to the Rose Bowl made believers out of many.  And, over the course of many following seasons, NU played much better teams tougher and even took down some national powerhouses.  No longer were the Wildcats mocked with the nickname “Mildcats” and anytime NU showed up on your schedule, you had a legitimate basis to be nervous.  The offense was far different than anything else at the time and could roar down the field to score a touchdown in 2 minutes.  For a long drive.  The defense bent but didn’t break, and was just opportunistic enough to give the offense enough chances to outscore the other team.  Just ask Michigan, University of – the Wolverines lost to the wild and crazy ‘Cats 54-51.

But that was then.  This is now.

* * * * *

I don’t want to seem ungrateful.  Under Coach Fitzgerald, the Wildcats have gone to 6 bowl games in 10 seasons, and actually won their first bowl game in 2012, defeating an SEC team in the Gator Bowl.  Last season’s Outback Bowl performance was, well, God-awful – a 45-6 loss to Tennessee.  And any bowl game, even an embarrassing loss, is far better than the product the Lowes Line staff endured as undergrads.

But here’s the problem with building a program:  expectations are raised even higher and faster than the quality of play.  If you tell your fan base to “Expect Victory”, they will so you better deliver.  And that brings us to the present day, and the utter disappointment with the current version of Wildcat football.

Being a coach means preparing your players with the best skills and game plan each Saturday.  The results this year call into question the level of preparation and game planning NU’s coaching staff has done each week.  It’s hard to justify a game plan that centers around passing the ball with a quarterback with a lifetime 50.8% completion percentage.  Yet, Saturday, against what should have been a lesser opponent, Northwestern play selection involved 41 pass attempts.  And only 41.5% of them were completed.  It’s not exactly news that Thorson is a poor passer; last season he completed barely half of his passes and threw two more interceptions (9) than touchdowns (7).  Einstein defined insanity as doing something again and again and expecting a different result.  By that measure, the NU coaching staff is cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs for continuing to pass with Thorson.

In contrast, Justin Jackson remains underutilized.  He only got the ball 11 times against Illinois State.  True he did leave early in the fourth quarter due to leg injury (he is listed as “probable” this week) and his yards per carry were down that game, but for the season he is averaging almost 5 yards a carry and he scored 3 touchdowns against Western Michigan.  Subtracting quarterback sacks, which in college are considered rushes, NU ran the ball 28 times to the 41 passes thrown (and, including sacks, 44+ dropbacks).  In what universe does it make sense to continue that kind of ratio?  Answer:  it doesn’t.  And we’re supposed to be the “smart” school.  Why do we not learn from this?

It has been said that Coach Fitzgerald advocates the vanilla game plan so as not to tip off to future Big Ten opponents how NU will attack them.  But is that really the best plan of action?  That means several fewer weeks of focusing on what you see as the identity of your football team.  And it leads to results like what we have seen the last two weeks – embarrassing losses to a mid-major and a lower division opponent.  If you contrast that philosophy against other Big Ten opponents, it is obvious it makes little sense.  Take, for example, Wisconsin.  What does Wisconsin do on offense?  They run the ball.  Repeatedly.  During the non-conference season.  During the Big Ten season.  It is no secret, and hasn’t been since Barry Alvarez took over as head coach in 1990.  That’s 26 years, folks.  Twenty six years of knowing when you go to Camp Randall, they’re going to line up a big offensive line and use one of a number of skilled tailbacks to cram the ball down your throat.  (As I will also be writing the Lowes Line for the November 5 game, this is what is known as foreshadowing.)  It’s no secret, and yet they have had a remarkable run of success.  Why?  Because it’s what they do and they’re going to work on being better at it than you are at stopping it.  So it’s time that NU stops the subterfuge and returns to its identity as a panic-inducing opponent.  Focus on getting guys who can excel in the frenetic offenses that keep defenses off balance, even if they know it’s coming.

That might help the defense, too.  Running the ball more keeps the NU defense right where it belongs – on the bench cheering on the offense.  And opposing teams might take fewer risks on offense if they knew giving the ball to NU meant any danger whatsoever.  But, in two games, NU’s defense has been on the field an average of 37 minutes.  The defense needs to find ways to stop drives and get the ball back.  The defense will be down a key piece, as senior cornerback Matthew Harris has been ruled out with a concussion.  Being on the field for almost two-thirds of the game is a recipe for disaster, even when your offense is rolling up the points.  But when half of what Thorson throws up comes clanging back to the ground (or, in the case of the Cardinals, 3 out of every 5 passes), one can only Expect Victory…for the other team.

Cue the Duke Blue Devils and their visit to Ryan Field.  Both Duke and NU have lost games this season to an ESPN College Game Day-designated “super ‘dog”.  The Blue Devils arrive still stinging from their defeat at the hands of ACC also-ran Wake Forest.  Duke is led by freshman quarterback Daniel Jones.  Curiously, Jones and Thorson have thrown the same number of passes this season:  63.  However, Jones has completed almost two-thirds of his passes for 150 more yards and one more touchdown (and one more interception) than Thorson.  Jones will hand the ball off to senior tailback Jela Duncan who, through his career at Duke, consistently averages more than 5 yards per carry.  He also is a threat to catch a few passes out of the backfield.

It’s hard to predict how Duke’s defense will fare against NU’s “offense.”  Through two games, Duke has allowed far fewer total yards, with the lion’s share of that difference in passing defense.  If NU intends to continue its aerial assault, that does not bode well for NU’s chances.  Stoutness against the run is about equal.  However, one of those games was against North Carolina Central University, a member of the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference and a competitor in the FCS, which Duke won 49-6.  (Interesting comparison of results against FCS schools:  Duke wins by 43, while NU looks terrible in scoring one measly touchdown to lose by 2.  Not sure how noteworthy this is, but last week NCCU traveled to Kalamazoo to get royally pounded by Western Michigan, 70-21.  Maybe we should be glad we only lost to the Broncos by a point?)
As much as I would like to see the Wildcats get the ship righted before heading into the Big Ten season, I just don’t see that happening.  The Wildcats should give Justin Jackson many more opportunities to carry the ball, as many believe he can play on Sundays after his NU career wraps up, with a few of those believing he will be wearing a certain orange-and-blue jersey at 5,280 feet.  But given no indication otherwise, the Wildcats offense continues its ineffective pass-wacky attack, resulting in another game in which Thorson’s completion percentage is below 50%.  Duke’s pass defense does enough to control the Cats through the air, and Duke becomes the third team in the 2016 season to dominate in time of possession.  Jela Duncan runs and catches his way through the NU defense, becoming more effective as the Cat defenders get worn down.  Close through the first half, but Duke pulls away.

Pick: Duke 30, Northwestern 22.
Season Record:  0-2 (0-2 ATS)