Matchup:  #20 Northwestern Wildcats (8-2, 4-2) at #25 Wisconsin Badgers (8-2, 5-1)
Date:  Saturday, November 21, 2015, 2:30 p.m. CST
TV:  Big Ten Network
Line:  Northwestern (+10) O/U 40

Outlook:

The 2015 Northwestern formula of get a lead and hold on for dear life resulted in yet another victory in Week 11, this time against lowly Purdue.  Northwestern took the lead 3 times during the game, with Purdue only able to tie the game twice.  Future Denver Broncos Running Back Justin Jackson put the Cats up for good with just over 4 minutes in the 4th quarter, and the defense made the lead stand.  Still, eking out a victory against a 2-7 Boilermaker team is nothing to be proud of nor happy about.  The Cats continue to play sloppy football, once again losing the turnover battle 3-1.  That speaks more about how well the defense is playing than anything.

Another game in the books, and yet we are no closer to the  answer asked in this space last week:  who are these Wildcats?  They clearly are a contrast to the Cardiac Cat teams of old (with “old” being less than a decade ago, as opposed to the Ara Parseghian era) who scored on drives of less than two minutes in duration, and for whom defense was windowdressing…and afterthought.  Northwestern is winning games with defense this season, not in spite of it.

As this staffer wrote before the Ball State tilt, Clayton Thorson has a lot of work to do to improve his passing efficiency.  It doesn’t seem like that will happen this year.  NU is an 8-2 team in spite of lackluster quarterback play.  Thorson completes only slightly higher than 50% of his passes, which won’t be good enough against better competition.  He has thrown for 6 touchdowns, but also completed 6 passes to guys in the wrong jerseys.  It got so bad that Thorson was benched against Purdue for a few series, with Zach Oliver entering the game for a much-needed spark.  Thorson finished the game, but the interception that lead to the benching was a mistake even a true freshman should not make.  So he definitely needed the timeout in the corner.

This week brings the renewed challenge of facing a brawny member of the weasel family.  Wisconsin enters Week 12 with an identical overall record, but sits one place ahead of the Cats in the Big Ten West standings, having only dropped one game league game to undefeated and #5 Iowa.  (As a side note, Iowa seems to be almost comically overrated, but that’s a discussion for another day.)  The only other Badger loss was an opening day loss to #2 Alabama, 35-17, though the game was not as close as the score would suggest.  Wisconsin struggled mightily on offense that game, which ended up giving the Tide many more opportunities to possess the ball against an increasingly tired defense.  Despite their 8-2 record, the Badgers do not have a weighty win, as their non-conference schedule other than Alabama was not full of power teams.  In fact, Wisconsin does not have a win over a team that currently has a winning record.  Yes, you read that right:  each of the 8 teams Wisconsin has defeated has a losing record.  And strong Big Ten teams like Michigan State, Michigan, and Ohio State are luckily absent from the Badger schedule.  The only highly ranked team (other than NU, of course) Wisconsin has played resulted in a 10-6 defeat at the hands of the Hawkeyes.  And it was less exciting than even the score might suggest, your humble narrator having seen it first-hand.

Unfortunately, the Badger offense in 2015 has made it impossible for this Lowes Line staffer to cut and paste from last year’s preview about the powerful running attack, and anemic passing offense.  The 2015 version of the Badgers is, surprisingly, more of a passing team.  First-year Badger head coach Paul Chryst is a Barry Alvarez disciple, but Wisconsin has not shown the ability to dominate games by running the ball down opponents’ throats.  The Badgers are averaging almost 100 more yards through the air than on the ground, which is very un-Badger-like.  The tastefully named Joel Stave has found better accuracy through the air, favoring senior receiver Alex Erickson, who has a knack for getting open.  A few other receivers get open, with only Wheelwright having problems hanging onto the football.  And while Stave has been more accurate with the ball, he still can be sloppy at times, with 8 interceptions against only 10 touchdowns.  To be sure, Wisconsin still attempts lots of running plays, but what used to be routine gains of 4-8 yards are this year only 2-4 yards.

Part of that lack of production can be attributed to injury.  Cory Clement, who split time last year with Melvin Gordon III, has been out the entire season except for the Halloween game against Rutgers.  He has suffered from a variety of maladies, most notably a sports hernia.  When he was inserted into the lineup against the Scarlet Knights, his running ability was noticeably above those of Dare Ogunbowale (say that 3 times fast) and Taiwan Deal.  Ogunbowale leads the Badgers with 612 yards on the ground.  For the season.  That, alone, is very un-Badger-like.

One strength of the Badgers all season has been the defense.  While NU’s defense has been surprisingly stout, surrendering only 17 points per game, Wisconsin has been far stronger, allowing only 12.3, which is #1 in the country.  Wisconsin is also #3 in total defense, surrendering only 272 yards per game.  Comparing opponents both NU and the Badgers have played, Wisconsin consistently held the opposition to fewer points, especially compared to the sphincter-tightening 40 NU surrendered to Iowa.  Wisconsin allowed them 10 points, which is all that much more remarkable when you factor in the fact that Stave committed 4 turnovers that day.

Leading the Badger defense is the linebacking tandem of Joe Schobert and Vince Biegel.  Both are tackling machines and rush the passer extremely well.  Expect them to introduce themselves to Clayton Thorson at every opportunity.  The Badgers are a little weak at corner, but make up for with strong safety play, and Michael Caputo excels at run support, too.

This game comes down to one thing:  can the NU offense protect the football.  If they can, then NU has a good shot of an upset at Camp Randall.  NU must protect the football so as not to give Wisconsin short fields, but more importantly so NU’s defense can stay rested.  Despite their down year running the football, Wisconsin still fields their jumbo-size line.  If NU’s defense has to play too much because the offense can’t hold onto the ball, then Wisconsin will start gashing the tired NU defense for long gains in the second half.

At the end of the day, I think the Wisconsin defense harasses Thorson and forces him into mistakes.  An accurate passer can complete passes against the Wisconsin secondary, but a 50% passer can’t do it enough.  Especially one who pitches one to the other team as often as he throws touchdowns.  FDBRB Justin Jackson is held under 100 yards, forcing the Cats to pass, and that spells disaster for the Cats in Madison.

Pick: Wisconsin 30, Wildcats 13  The Badgers score enough points off turnovers to cover.

Season to Date:  6-4 ATS, 5-5 Straight up