Matchup: Ball State Cardinals (2-1, 1-0) at #17 Northwestern Wildcats (3-0, 0-0)
Date: Saturday, 26 Sep, 7:00 am CDT
TV: Big Ten Network
Line: Northwestern (-18.5)
 
Outlook:
 
Northwestern and Ball State share more than just being geographically located in states that abut each other.  They are inexorably linked in the world of late night TV, with an NU alum taking over the chair that the likely most famous Ball State alumnus occupied so belovedly for so many years.  I speak of course, of Stephen Colbert’s debut hosting the late night program recently vacated by David Letterman.  Given that connection, this Lowes Line will weave a classic Top Ten list into the analysis.
 
TOP TEN COURSES FOR ATHLETES AT SMU
 
10.  Subtraction:  Addition’s Tricky Pal
 
The chosen Top Ten provides humorous contrast to the fact that Northwestern has played in two games (out of three) dubbed “The SAT Bowl”.  That Stanford, NU, and Duke are fielding very competitive teams despite extremely high admissions standards is a testament to excellent recruiting and coaching.  Coaches identify a particular type of player who will fit into their schemes, and are able to recruit the highly performing student-athlete.  All of which makes last year’s tenure of Trevor Siemian as the full-time starter so unusual.  He definitely did not fit the mold of the run/pass dual threat that has led NU programs of the recent past.  But NU has reloaded with Clayton Thorson, a big dual threat quarterback.
 
One thing Thorson is going to have to improve is his efficiency as a quarterback.  Yes, he’s a freshman and mistakes are to be expected.  But putting up 9 for 23 for a measly 70 yards may get it done against a non-conference opponent, but once Big Ten play begins, that’s a recipe for trouble.  Thorson also completed two passes to the guys in the wrong jerseys, his first two of the season.  That needs to change, too.
 
9.  The First 30 Pages of “A Tale of Two Cities”:  Foundation of a Classic
 
But one of Thorson’s strengths is his ability to run, something that will be a strength of the entire NU team.  Thorson had an electrifying 42-yard run against Stanford.  Sharing the backfield with Thorson is sophomore sensation Justin Jackson.  Jackson showed flashes of his potential during the 2014 campaign.  Through three games he has accumulated 332 yards on the ground and one touchdown, and is proving himself to be a work horse, carrying the ball 35 times against Duke.  Backing up Jackson is Warren Long, who contributed a 55-yard scamper for a touchdown (and a fumble recovery on special teams) to lead the Cats to victory.
 
8.  Sandwich-making (final project required)
 
The surprise of the 2015 season thus far has been how stout the defense has been.  Wildcat fans are used to a “bend but not break” defensive philosophy, or at times a “they may score, but we can outscore them” theory.  Through three games, the NU defense has surrendered a mere 22 points against some pretty impressive offensive opponents (i.e., not Eastern Illinois).  Stanford, who just put up 41 on a highly ranked USC squad AT USC, managed just two field goals.  And Duke had scored 37 and 55 points in previous games, but could only score 10.  NU is also winning the turnover battle (barely).
 
7.  Alumni-owned Hotels, Restaurants, and Car Dealerships:  The Interlocking Economy
 
Into Ryan Field at Dyche Stadium come the Ball State Cardinals, NU’s last non-conference test before opening the Big Ten season at home against Minnesota.  Ball State enters the tilt with an expected 2-1 record.  They were able to outscore VMI, they got clubbed like the sacrificial lambs (sorry…birds) they were supposed to be by #16 Texas A&M, and they beat fellow MAC team Eastern Michigan in a game of spurts, scoring 28 unanswered points to come back from a 17-0 deficit.
 
6.  Pre-Law Seminar:  Age of Consent in the 50 States
 
Ball State’s offense is led by freshman quarterback Riley Neal.  In terms of passing proficiency, Neal is what Thorson is not:  efficient.  He sports a gaudy 74.5% completion percentage, and has yet to throw a pick. He also is a dual threat, piling up 143 yards through three games and a 41-yard touchdown run.  He shares the ball with running backs Darian Green (7.4 ypc, 4 TD) and James Gilbert (4.5 ypc, 5 TD).  On the wing, his main targets are Jordan Williams and KeVonn Mabon, who between them average more than 10 catches per game.  Given the ball, this squad will score points.  That they put up 23 on A&M in College Station is a testament to that.  The previous week, they put up 48 against VMI.
 
5.  The Denny’s Menu:  Recent Discoveries
 
One cannot really expect a defense from a mid-major conference to hold back a potent office like Texas A&M, so surrendering 56 against the Aggies shouldn’t come as too much of a shock.  There is reason for hope, Cats fans, in that VMI was able to put up 36 on the Cardinals’ defense.  VMI also put up 547 yards against the Cardinal defense, which is a shocking total for a Division I-AA team.  Even A&M didn’t put up that many yards against Ball State.  Ball State’s defense, in its victories, was able to win the turnover battle, and that’s something to keep an eye on in this game.  Taking care of the ball will be a key to victory.
 
4.  The Bunny and the Wolf:  Hand Shadow Workshop
 
So what does this week’s game bring?  NU’s defense will be tested by Ball State’s running attack.  NU has kept opponents to 235 yards per game so far this season (111 yards rushing).  Given Ball State’s potent running attack, expect that average to increase, significantly, when statistics are compiled Saturday night.  It will be vitally important for NU’s front 7 to control the line of scrimmage and keep gains small, and not allow big runs to flip field position.  NU’s secondary will also be tested, with two gifted pass-catchers drawing significant targets.  I think Ball State will score points on NU’s defense.
 
3.  Draw Winky
 
On the other side of the ball, NU’s offense should find success moving the ball.  Ball State surrenders over 400 yards of offense per game this year, and NU should be able to exploit that weakness.  Justin Jackson should have a good game on the ground, and hopefully he can turn his 3.4 ypc average v. Duke into 4-5 ypc, and get into the end zone a couple of times.  Ball State’s secondary yields yards in chunks, so look for Christian Jones to get into the swing of things with some big catches.  If Clayton Thorson can solve his efficiency woes and throw to the guys in purple, NU stands to enter conference play undefeated.
 
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Perhaps the most effective way for NU’s defense to keep the Cardinal offense in check is to be sitting on the sidelines.  Given NU’s recent history with the spread offense, and the plethora of graphics during games about how quickly they snap the ball (categories like “fast” and “really fast”), it feels foreign to comment that one of NU’s strength this season has been keeping opposing offenses off the field.  In each of the three games so far this year, NU has won (sometimes significantly) the time of possession battle.  That can be a misleading stat, of course, if the team on the other side of the field is a quick-strike menace like Oregon, but in most games it is a signal that the other team isn’t scoring because their playmakers are firmly planted on the bench.  Just where we want them to be.
 
Pick:  NU uses its running game though a weak Ball State defense to score enough and keep Ball State’s offense in check, but Ball State keeps it close.
 
NU 38, Ball State 24.  Pick the Cardinals to cover.
 
…and the Number 1 Course for Athletes at SMU:
 
1.  The Poetry of Hank Stram
 
Season to date:  2-1 Straight Up; 2-1 ATS