Matchup: Northwestern Wildcats (4-6, 2-4 B1G) at Purdue Boilermakers (3-7, 1-5)
Date: Saturday, November 22, 11:00 am CST
TV: ESPNU
Line: Northwestern (- 1.5; o/u 49.5)
Outlook:
This Lowes Liner takes full credit for the stunning upset that took
place last week in South Bend. I had a good portion of my Lowes
Line written, bemoaning how far our program has fallen in recent times,
and leaving only a couple of blanks in which to insert the details of
the stink bomb Northwestern detonated against the Irish. After
the mauling the Irish suffered at the hands of the Sun Devils, I was
certain the Golden Domers would take out their anger on the Wildcats,
hanging at least half a hundred on them.
And then Saturday happened. And I realized I had to toss all I
had written and start from scratch. (And, honestly, never was I
happier to do just that.) So...the reverse jinx worked to
perfection. You're welcome, everyone!
Northwestern hung around. Notre Dame scored quickly to open the
game, which was completely unsurprising. But NU marched right
back and tied it up at 7. NU fell behind by 11, then took the
lead in the second quarter (which elicited a roar of approval at Camp
Randall Stadium when the score was posted), before falling behind by 4
at half. NU again fell behind by 11, but managed to score a
touchdown and 2-pointer before booting a tying field goal with 19
seconds left in the game.
Northwestern’s defense had 4 takeaways (though, unfortunately, NU’s
offense had as many giveaways) including a key fumble recovery late in
the fourth quarter that led to the tying points. NU’s defense
also stood tall in overtime, not allowing ND to move the ball at all,
which caused the Irish kicker to attempt a 42-yard field goal, an
attempt he promptly missed. NU likewise could not move the ball
in overtime, but kicker Jack Mitchell reprised his tying field goal,
sending NU to a stunning upset of the 18th ranked Irish. That’s
twice in a row (separated by 19 years) NU has gone into South Bend and
emerged as the victors.
The N(otre Dame) B(ias) C(hannel) announcers gushed after the game,
calling it the best victory in NU history. That might be a bit of
hyperbole. The previous victory against Notre Dame set the stage
for a run to Pasadena, a stunning development for a program that, until
that point, was known best for owning the NCAA record for football
futility. Certainly, the 1949 Rose Bowl victory has to be
considered, along with the 1995 victory in South Bend and the “get the
monkey off our back” win at the 2013 Gator Bowl has to be part of that
conversation, too. But beating the Irish in full view of
Touchdown Jesus has to rank highly in any discussion.
In the context of the season, however, that victory only serves to
deepen the enigma that is the 2014 Wildcats. Fail to show up in
the opener and against an in-state MAC team. Finally get things
moving and then somehow defeat a Wisconsin team that completely
manhandled Nebraska this past weekend. The dreams of a Big Ten
West title died hard soon after, and the ‘Cats descended into a deep
abyss, failing miserably against an eminently beatable Michigan
team. And then beat Notre Dame AT Notre Dame?!
What to make of this team, as they travel to West Lafayette to take on
the Boilermakers? Are they the team that failed to show up
against Cal and Northern Illinois? Who put forth a pathetic
effort against Michigan? Or are they the team that stood up to a
very physical Wisconsin team and then hung around and stunned the
Irish? It is difficult to get a read on the Men in Purple.
Purdue has struggled in 2014, posting victories against a couple of
mid-major teams, and their only victory in the Big Ten coming against
Illinois. Their losses have been all over the board: a
one-point loss to Minnesota, but also getting clobbered by Central
Michigan, Nebraska, and Wisconsin. And, against the common
opponent, Notre Dame, Purdue lost 30-14. So that alone suggests
that NU should have the upper hand in Saturday’s tilt.
Purdue comes in ranked 102nd in the country in passing yards (hard to
believe given how they used to love to sling the ball around under Joe
Tiller), 88th in points scored, and 98th in points allowed.
Purdue is led by quarterback Austin Appleby, who has struggled in his
last two starts against Nebraska and Wisconsin. Akeem Hunt gets
the lion’s share of the carries, but has not posted much success
recently against strong defenses.
My prediction this week is a little stronger than it would have been
pre-Saturday. If NU can take care of the ball, I think the
Wildcats will emerge victorious at Ross-Ade Stadium. Justin
Jackson should have another good game against Purdue’s defense, and
NU’s rushing defense should be able to contain the Boilermakers’
rushing attack. Also, NU’s pass defense shouldn’t be too
threatened by Appleby, whose completion percentage was well below 50%
in each of his last two outings. I think NU manages to move the
ball and score points against the Boilermakers, while the defense keeps
the Purdue offense well in check. The greatest threat against
Purdue is really a letdown, playing down to the level of the
competition (Michigan, anyone?). Fitz isn’t letting that happen,
<rest of sentence removed due to possibility of jinx>.
Pick: NU stays inspired after taking down the Irish. Take the Cats; give the points.
Northwestern 30, Purdue 20
Season to Date: 3-7 Straight Up, 2-8 ATS
