Lowes Line
Posted
10/30/14

 




 
Iowa Preview and Prediction
 

By Charlie Simon



Matchup:   Northwestern Wildcats (3-4, 2-2) at Iowa Hawkeyes (5-2, 2-1)

Date: Saturday, November 1, 11:00 am CDT

TV: BTN

Line: Huskers (-4) o/u 41.5

Outlook:

 

                Two weeks ago Northwestern hosted Nebraska at Ryan Field for Homecoming.  For a half it was the best of times; for the second half it was the worst of times.  The game started well as the Homecoming crowd filtered into the stadium.  NU stopped Nebraska on its first drive and then using a mixture of Justin Jackson runs and 3rd down passes to Dan Vitale, scored on its opening possession.  NU seemed poised to go up by 14 as they were driving early in the 1st quarter but Siemian threw into TRIPLE converge and had his pass intercepted in the end zone.  Nebraska tied it at 7 and then several punts were traded.  NU had another nice drive propelled by three 10 yard plus runs by Jackson.  With a nifty little spin move Jackson took it into the end zone from 5 yards out.  It only took Nebraska 38 seconds to score as they had a long pass play and very well executed throw back to the QB.  NU took over with 1:14 on the clock and marched the ball to the Nebraska 13 yard line.  The Cornhuskers called timeout as NU had 1st and 10 with 26 seconds left.  As we watched I remarked to my son, “if we scored a touchdown we will win, if we score a FG we might win, and if we don’t score at all we will lose.”  He looked at me puzzled and asked, “isn’t it only halftime?”  I knew that NU needed these seven points.  Too often NU settles for FGs when the game is close instead attacking and trying to win.  On first and second down Siemian’s passes were not perfect but they hit the receivers in the hands, in the end zone.  Neither receiver could make the play.  NU settled for the FG. 

                The game was exciting, the crowd was at least 50% NU, and I had a good feeling.  Was it too much to ask for “more, please?”  Except for the one quick drive, NU’s defense was playing well and that continued into the 3rd quarter.  Unfortunately NU’s offense was not.  Two NU 3 and outs (on a 3rd and one and a 3rd and two) and Nebraska was up 21-17.  NU’s defense was still holding but with the lack of offense and Nebraska continuing to get the ball around midfield it was only a matter of time.  The “bend but don’t break” broke in the fourth quarter as Nebraska scored two more touchdowns and a FG.  Now that was NU was down by more than one score they abandoned the run completely and the flood gates were opened.  In the first half, Siemian had time to complete his passes.  Now that the ‘Huskers were not worrying about Jackson running the ball they attacked Siemian like an orphan attacking an extra bowl of porridge (too much?).  The NU line could not stop them and they pummeled Siemian who was hobbling around like Tiny Tim without the crutch.  In the 4th quarter Siemian attempted 12 passes.  He completed one of them.  NU ran the ball one time.  I wanted to leave early but my classmates wanted to stay.  It was terrible watching Siemian get pounded. 

                The loss in front of a sold out crowd was a very disappointing end to an otherwise great Homecoming weekend.  I saw many faces I had not seen in 20 years and was pleasantly surprised to see most holding up well to the test of time.  The loss and the thought that I may never see most of these people again left me in a melancholy mood. As I drove home, I tried to think that “The pain of parting is nothing to the joy of meeting again" but my kids were fighting in the back seat and I just kept thinking “we should have won that damn game.”

 

Some other notes from the game:

  • I can see why many keep expecting Kyle Prater to dominate.  He is significantly larger than anyone else on the playing field and especially the other receivers and defensive backs.  He looks like a man among boys as he lines up for the play.  Unfortunately as soon as the play starts he disappears.  He does not break tackles and extend plays.  He does get stupid holding penalties and drops routine passes.
  • To see where the ball is going to go all you have to do is watch Siemian’s head.  He does not look off the defense and solely focuses on the one receiver he is going to throw to. 
  • NU does not seem to have multiple options in their pass game.  In a 3, 4, or 5 receiver sets, all but one are used to clear out space for the primary receiver.  If that primary receiver is covered Siemian is lost and usually is sacked.
  • Justin Jackson had 100 yards at half time. He was 6 for 26 in the 3rd quarter.  He was 1 for 3 yards in the 4th.  Why was he not used more in the second half?  If Nebraska adjusted, where is our adjustment?
  • Fitz said afterward that Siemian was “nowhere near 100% healthy”.  That was evident from the way he could barely hobble to and from the sidelines in the 4th quarter.  The question is WHY was he in there for those last 3 series to abused by Miss Havisham Nebraska?  Why wouldn’t NU lean more on the run to take the pressure off him?  Is Fitz as enamored with Siemian as much as Pip is with Estella?
  • After the first drive, Vitale was not thrown to again and did not play the second half due to injury.
  • The quick slant and the throws over the middle are completely missing from NU’s game.  This might be good considering how Siemian is telegraphing where the ball is going but it basically limits us to 5 yard quick outs.  That is a hard way to drive 80 yards.

                This week the Wildcats head to Iowa to face the Hawkeyes.  As always the year started with Great Expectations for both clubs as dreams of a B1G West crown seemed realistic.  Reality has set in as both teams are “fair to midlin.”    Both teams have a good defense that has been Scrooge-like in victories and a Marley-like (dead) offense.  This game has been described as a slugfest or a grind it out kind of game.  These are polite ways of saying the game will be slow, ugly, and boring.  NU’s opponents have figured out that to stop NU it is as simple as putting man to man coverage on the outside and stacking the box against the run.  The numbers in the box will discourage running plays and our receivers cannot get the separation to make teams pay for playing man to man.  Since NU has a rotation of 8 or so wide receivers I do not know why they don’t send someone deep on every play.  If nothing else it should tire out the DB’s who are out there the entire game.

                With the two teams so evenly matched and lacking difference makers, turnovers and penalties will be even more important to either team’s success.  It might come down to the kicking game and field position; two more areas where NU does not shine like a "glittering multitude." 

                NU needs to be creative on offense to win.  They need to lean heavily on their two best players, Jackson and Vitale.  It would be great to have some others on offense step up and make plays.  Because I have not seen it yet I am hesitant to believe that an extra week of practice is going to make it happen.  Fitz has never beaten a FBS school after a bye week.  It wasn't until this year against Western Illinois that he had even beaten a FCS team.  And yes, NU is coming off a bye this week.  I would love to tell you the ‘Cats are going to win but the lack of creativity on Offense and general “try not to lose” approach by the coaches has me lacking confidence in these ‘Cats.

I will continue to hope for the best but,

Iowa 17, NU 16

"Happiness is a gift and the trick is not to expect it, but to delight in it when it comes.” - Dickens

<>Lowes Line Season Record:  Straight up, 2-5 (2-5 ATS)

 




The Lowes Line is an e-mailed description of NU's next football game, with an invariably fearless prediction of the outcome and how NU will fare against what the other "experts" predict.  Our good friend and Brother Marcus Lowes began the broadcast mailing in 1996.  The crack Lowes Line Staff (alumni Jersey Cat, GallopingGrapes, Eric Cockerill, Joel Kanvik, Charlie Simon, and MO'Cats) have continued the Line in memory of Marcus.  For the 2014 season it has returned to HailToPurple.com, for anyone to enjoy.  Thanks to the gridiron brain trust at the Lowes Line!