Posted
8/7/16

 





Media 2016 Previews and Predictions for the 'Cats:
Breaking from the Heinz Line


We're wrapping up summer and the annual college football magazines have appeared at the newsstands, offering their picks and predictions.  The slate of previews typically begins with Athlon and Lindy's and concludes with the Big Ten's August media event, when the conference announces its official front runner.

HailToPurple has tracked the media previews and predictions since the 2000 preseason, and regular readers might be familiar with the HTP "Heinz Line": most media attempts to rank NU nationally in the preseason will gravitate toward 57th place.


Time for another swig.




Here is how media picks for NU have played out since summer 2000:



(Based on average preseason national rankings by Lindy's, Athlon, Phil Steele, ESPN bloggers,
The Sporting News, and several other media sources)


Last year the media actually put NU below the Heinz Line in the preseason, and their predictions significantly missed the mark when the 'Cats finished 2015 ranked. In fact, the media consistently failed to predict any of NU's best seasons in the last 16 years, but they have typically overcorrected by overrating NU the year after a great season (e.g., 2001, 2013).

So is the 2016 preseason assessment of NU also an overreaction? Or have the media underestimated the team again? Or... will they nail their NU prediction, something they've only achieved twice in the last nine seasons?

The Recap of the 2015 Predictions

For 2015, the media took a downbeat view of NU's prospects, uniformly underestimating NU's potential. In fact, there was no truly accurate prediction last year among the large media outlets. The closest, technically, was CollegeFootballNews.com, with its #50 ranking for NU (way off the mark, but still closer than anyone else). The "dog" pick for 2015, hands down, went to USA Today's Paul Myerberg, who ranked NU #82 in the preseason, below Ball State, Georgia Southern, and New Mexico.


The 2016 List

During every summer since 2000, HailToPurple.com has posted a recap page of what the larger 'Net and print publications predict for NU.  Here are the
2016 Wildcat predictions so far.
  • Since it holds the crown for most accurate prediction last year, let's begin with CollegeFootballNews.com. CFN and Pete Fiutak ranks NU #40 nationally (just ahead of Nebraska), seventh in the B1G, and third in the B1G West, behind Wisconsin and Iowa. CFN lists running back, linebackers, and secondary as program positives, and quarterback, receivers, and D-line as watchouts. #40 sounds fairly strong for a media prediction, right? Not so fast: CFN ranks by talent. However, in its list of how it thinks teams will finish 2016, CFN ranks NU at a Heinz-esque #54, predicting that, with its tough schedule, NU will end the season at 6-6. CFN actually lists NU as an underdog to Western Michigan at home...
  • Moving on to the print picks, Lindy's is one of the most overreactive when it comes to NU: after a bad season, the mag will expect similarly awful results from NU the next season, and it will be just as bullish after a good year. In the wake of Northwestern's ten-win season, Lindy's has offered up one of the highest predictions for 2016. It ranks NU #28 in the nation. That translates to a fifth spot in the B1G and second in the West, behind Iowa. Lindy's tabs Anthony Walker as a first-team All American and Justin Jackson as first-team All Big Ten. It hedges, however, on results: "NU will be improved in 2016, but ten wins will be a stretch."
  • The second major national preview magazine is Athlon, and it also ranks the 'Cats higher than it did last year (#44, up from #58). But it has the B1G improving across the board, and ranks NU only eighth in the conference and fourth in the West. Athlon also puts Walker in its first-team All American squad, but it predicts just seven wins, and only four wins in the B1G. The magazine predicts that NU will meet USC in the Foster Farms Bowl.
  • In his preseason power poll Phil Steele ranks NU #42, which is eighth in the Big Ten, just behind Penn State and ahead of Minnesota. He slots the 'Cats at #4 in the West. Given NU's ten wins in 2015, Steele lists NU in his "bear market" of teams on the decline, but also lists the 'Cats #4 in the teams that should have the most improved passing game. Additionally, Steele is very high on NU's defense: "The Wildcats may have the best back 7 on defense in the league and a top 5 defense overall  plus RB Jackson and an improved QB Thorson." He predicts NU will meet Southern Miss in the Heart of Dallas Bowl.
  • Internet statistician and ranking mogul James Howell has been offering his rankings and game predictions for many years.  For the 2016 pre-season his power rankings slot NU at 41st, good for seventh in the B1G and fourth in the West, just behind Nebraska. Most prognosticators for 2016 consistently have Wisconsin and Iowa ahead of NU in the West and disagree about Nebraska's place, which is virtually tied with NU in many of these power polls.
  • Internet source The Power Rank builds a predictive model for all Div. I teams. For 2016, The Power Rank ranks NU 58th, which makes it one of the few prognosticators in 2016 that actually ranks NU lower than it did in 2015's preseason (when it put NU at #55). The Power Rank is actually down on the Big Ten in general. Michigan, its top-ranked conference team, comes in at #9. NU is eighth in the B1G, behind Penn State.
  • But The Power Rank's 58th place rank looks positively generous compared to Sports Formulator, another model-based Internet source. Sports Formulator ranks NU 64th in the preseason (up just one spot from its 65th pick in '15). That's good for ninth in the B1G, behind Indiana.
  • Another Internet prognosticator is Mike DeSimone, who has NU in 43rd, just above Virginia Tech.
  • Among newspapers, the Orlando Sentinel is one that provides a preseason rank of all teams. The Sentinel ranks NU a lofty 24th, noting that the 'Cats need "to make strides on offense in order...to post back-to-back double-digit win seasons." It is one of the few media sources to rank NU over Penn State and Georgia.
  • Bill Connelly posts on SB Nation, and his preseason B1G power rankings placed NU in ninth, behind Minnesota and Iowa, and just ahead of Indiana. Overall, Connelly ranks NU 46th, with odds of winning 6.2 games (that 0.2 had better not be against the Illini). His colleague at SB Nation, Jason Kirk, predicts that NU will make it to an at-large bowl (the Independence) to face Miss St.
  • The Sporting News has its bowl projections up for the preseason, and it picks NU for the Foster Farms Bowl, to face UCLA.
  • So far, the Coaches Poll has been released for the preseason, and NU is unranked. The 'Cats pulled in 31 points, putting them in the middle of the unranked also-rans.
  • Others not yet offering their predictions: Bleacher Report, USA Today and Paul Myerberg, and ESPN, The Magazine. We'll add those when we can.