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Media 2016 Previews and Predictions for the 'Cats: Breaking from the Heinz Line
We're wrapping up summer and the annual college football magazines have appeared at the
newsstands,
offering their picks and predictions. The slate of previews
typically
begins with Athlon and Lindy's and concludes
with
the Big Ten's August media event, when the conference announces its
official
front runner.
HailToPurple has tracked the media previews and predictions since the
2000 preseason, and regular readers might be familiar with the HTP
"Heinz Line": most media attempts to rank NU nationally in the
preseason will gravitate toward 57th place.
Time for another swig.
Here is how media picks for NU have played out since summer 2000:
(Based on average preseason national rankings by Lindy's, Athlon, Phil Steele, ESPN bloggers,
The Sporting News, and several other media sources)
Last
year the media actually put NU below the Heinz Line in the preseason,
and their predictions significantly missed the mark when the 'Cats
finished 2015 ranked. In fact, the media consistently failed to predict
any of NU's best seasons in
the last 16 years, but they have typically overcorrected by overrating
NU the year after a great season (e.g., 2001, 2013).
So
is the 2016 preseason assessment of NU also an overreaction? Or have
the media underestimated the team again? Or... will they nail their NU
prediction, something they've only achieved twice in the last nine
seasons?
The Recap of the 2015 Predictions
For
2015, the media took a downbeat view of NU's prospects, uniformly
underestimating NU's potential. In fact, there was no truly accurate
prediction last year among the large media outlets. The closest,
technically, was CollegeFootballNews.com, with its #50 ranking for NU
(way off the mark, but still closer than anyone else). The "dog" pick
for 2015, hands down, went to USA Today's Paul Myerberg, who ranked NU
#82 in the preseason, below Ball State, Georgia Southern, and New
Mexico.
The 2016 List
During every summer since 2000, HailToPurple.com has posted a recap page
of what the larger 'Net and print publications predict for NU. Here are the 2016
Wildcat predictions so far.
- Since it holds the crown for most accurate prediction last year, let's begin with CollegeFootballNews.com.
CFN and Pete Fiutak ranks NU #40 nationally (just ahead of Nebraska),
seventh in the B1G, and third in the B1G West, behind Wisconsin and
Iowa. CFN lists running back, linebackers, and secondary as program
positives, and quarterback, receivers, and D-line as watchouts. #40
sounds fairly strong for a media prediction, right? Not so fast: CFN
ranks by talent. However, in its list of how it thinks teams will finish
2016, CFN ranks NU at a Heinz-esque #54, predicting that, with its
tough schedule, NU will end the season at 6-6. CFN actually lists NU as
an underdog to Western Michigan at home...
- Moving on to the print picks, Lindy's
is one of the most overreactive when it comes to NU: after a bad
season, the mag will expect similarly awful results from NU the next
season, and it will be just as bullish after a good year. In the wake
of Northwestern's ten-win season, Lindy's has offered up one of the
highest predictions for 2016. It ranks NU #28 in the nation. That
translates to a fifth spot in the B1G and second in the West, behind
Iowa. Lindy's tabs Anthony Walker as a first-team All American and
Justin Jackson as first-team All Big Ten. It hedges, however, on
results: "NU will be improved in 2016, but ten wins will be a stretch."
- The second major national preview magazine is Athlon,
and it also ranks the 'Cats higher than it did last year (#44, up from
#58). But it has the B1G improving across the board, and ranks NU only
eighth in the conference and fourth in the West. Athlon also puts
Walker in its first-team All American squad, but it predicts just seven
wins, and only four wins in the B1G. The magazine predicts that NU will
meet USC in the Foster Farms Bowl.
- In his preseason power poll Phil Steele
ranks NU #42, which is eighth in the Big Ten, just behind Penn State
and ahead of Minnesota. He slots the 'Cats at #4 in the West. Given
NU's ten wins in 2015, Steele lists NU in his "bear market" of teams on
the decline, but also lists the 'Cats #4 in the teams that should have
the most improved passing game. Additionally, Steele is very high on
NU's defense: "The Wildcats may have the best back 7 on defense in the
league and a top 5 defense overall plus RB Jackson and an
improved QB Thorson." He predicts NU will meet Southern Miss in the
Heart of Dallas Bowl.
- Internet statistician and ranking mogul James Howell has
been offering his rankings and game predictions for many years.
For the 2016 pre-season his power rankings slot NU at 41st, good for
seventh in the B1G and fourth in the West, just behind Nebraska. Most
prognosticators for 2016 consistently have Wisconsin and Iowa ahead of
NU in the West and disagree about Nebraska's place, which is virtually
tied with NU in many of these power polls.
- Internet source The Power Rank
builds a predictive model for all Div. I teams. For 2016, The Power
Rank ranks NU 58th, which makes it one of the few prognosticators in 2016 that actually ranks NU lower
than it did in 2015's preseason (when it put NU at #55). The Power Rank
is actually down on the Big Ten in general. Michigan, its top-ranked
conference team, comes in at #9. NU is eighth in the B1G, behind Penn
State.
- But The Power Rank's 58th place rank looks positively generous compared to Sports Formulator,
another model-based Internet source. Sports Formulator ranks NU 64th in
the preseason (up just one spot from its 65th pick in '15). That's good
for ninth in the B1G, behind Indiana.
- Another Internet prognosticator is Mike DeSimone, who has NU in 43rd, just above Virginia Tech.
- Among newspapers, the Orlando Sentinel
is one that provides a preseason rank of all teams. The Sentinel ranks
NU a lofty 24th, noting that the 'Cats need "to make strides on offense
in order...to post back-to-back double-digit win seasons." It is one of
the few media sources to rank NU over Penn State and Georgia.
- Bill Connelly posts on SB Nation,
and his preseason B1G power rankings placed NU in ninth, behind
Minnesota and Iowa, and just ahead of Indiana. Overall, Connelly ranks
NU 46th, with odds of winning 6.2 games (that 0.2 had better not be
against the Illini). His colleague at SB Nation, Jason Kirk, predicts
that NU will make it to an at-large bowl (the Independence) to face
Miss St.
- The Sporting News has its bowl projections up for the preseason, and it picks NU for the Foster Farms Bowl, to face UCLA.
- So
far, the Coaches Poll has been released for the preseason, and NU is
unranked. The 'Cats pulled in 31 points, putting them in the middle of
the unranked also-rans.
- Others
not yet offering their predictions: Bleacher Report, USA Today and Paul
Myerberg, and ESPN, The Magazine. We'll add those when we can.
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