We're wrapping up summer and the annual college football magazines have appeared at the newsstands, offering their picks and predictions.  The slate of previews typically begins with Athlon and Lindy's and concludes with the Big Ten's August media event, when the conference announces its official front runner.

HailToPurple has tracked the media previews and predictions since the 2000 preseason, and regular readers might be familiar with the HTP "Heinz Line": most media attempts to rank NU nationally in the preseason will gravitate toward 57th place.



Since it's the 15th anniversary of HTP, it might be a good time to review the last 15 seasons of NU predictions. How has the average media prediction of NU's football fortunes changed? How accurate has the media hive mind been?

Here is how media picks for NU have played out since summer 2000:



The media consistently failed to predict any of NU's best seasons in the last 15 years, but they have typically overcorrected by overrating NU the year after a great season (e.g., 2001, 2013).

So after two losing seasons-- one a surprise disappointment, the next somewhat expected by the media-- what are the predictions for NU in 2015? Most of the national media so far are hedging their bets, keeping the 'Cats close to the Heinz Line and looking at a .500 record.

The Recap of the 2014 Predictions

For 2014, the media split on its NU predictions.  For the second straight year Lindy's had the most accurate prediction that NU would scrape near the bottom in the B1G West.

In most years, the "dog" pick from the media usually comes from the site that ranks NU the lowest-- the 'Cats have typically overperformed.  However, last year's dog went to Phil Steele and his too-optimistic view of NU.

The 2015 List

During every summer since 2000, HailToPurple.com has posted a recap page of what the larger 'Net and print publications predict for NU.  Here are the 2015 Wildcat predictions so far.

• Since it holds the crown for most accurate NU prediction for the last two years, let's begin with Lindy's. The magazine ranked NU 71st before the 2014 season, and it doesn't expect much improvement from NU, slotting the 'Cats in the 69th spot for 2015. LIndy's predicts a sixth place finish in the B1G West, just ahead of hapless Purdue, with Wisconsin taking the division title. Lindy's seems particularly down on the Wildcat program in general, suggesting that Coach Fitzgerald should "get out [of NU] while the getting's good."
• The second major national preview magazine is Athlon, and it skirts the Heinz Line with a #58 prediction, putting the 'Cats fifth in the West, ahead of Illinois and Purdue. "Fitzgerald has arguably his most talented defense, and if the special teams meet his expectations, the season once again could hinge on reigniting the offense." Athlon singles out Godwin Igwebuike and the NU defensive secondary as team strengths. Athlon predicts a Quick Lane Bowl invitation.
• The Sporting News has a mixed prediction for the Wildcats. Like Athlon, TSN tabs NU in fifth place in the West, ahead of Illinois and Purdue, and TSN also predicts NU will land in the Quick Lane Bowl (vs. Boston College), but it also thinks NU is the conference's most overrated team (just who is overrating them is not made clear).
• The always-anticipated Phil Steele appears to have a rising opinion of Northwestern's chances. At the beginning of spring, he placed NU at 5th in the West, ahead of Illinois. However, by the time of his magazine's publication, Steele put the 'Cats in a three-way tie for third in the West, along with Iowa and Minny. Wisky and Nebraska lead the devision; Illinois and Purdue are at the bottom. Steele put NU at #8 on his list of 2015's most improved teams, and he predicts that the 'Cats will finally make it back to a bowl, facing Pitt in Detroit. Steele has NU unranked in his preseason rankings but tabs the 'Cats at #54 in his power poll.
  
• Several college football magazines either discontinued or severely scaled back distribution in the wake of the Great Recession, and Harris was one of them. However, Harris is back on most newsstands this year. Harris has a dim view of NU's prospects. The magazine puts NU in sixth in the West, behind only Purdue. Harris' staff think that it's "very likely" that the 'Cats will have a losing season, and they predict that the 'Cats will be double-digit underdogs in all three of their B1G away games (not counting the game vs. Illinois at Soldier Field).
  
• Internet statistician and ranking mogul James Howell has been offering his rankings and game predictions for many years.  For the 2015 pre-season his power rankings slot NU at... you guessed it: fifth in the West, ahead of Illinois and Purdue. Howell, however, is somewhat down on the B1G, and NU's fifth spot in the west is good for a meager 70th spot nationally.
• Internet source The Power Rank builds a predictive model for all Div. I teams. For 2015, The Power Rank ranks NU 55th in the nation, and fifth in the West. However, the site puts Purdue over Illinois; in fact, Purdue comes in 11th in the conference overall, ahead of the Illini, Indy, and Maryland.
• Another model-based Internet source is Sports Formulator, which ranks NU 65th in the preseason.
• The fourth Internet-based index is from Brian Fremeau, who crafts an annual "Fremeau Efficiency Index." The FEI ranks Northwestern at #56.
  
• Bill Connelly posts on SB Nation, and his S&P+ Ratings tabs NU at #62.
• Paul Myerberg, USA Today's college football writer, just might sink NU to well below the Heinz Line for the 2015 average. Myerberg ranks NU at #82 nationally, by far the lowest of any major media source. To put this into perspective, Myerberg ranks the 2015 'Cats lower than Louisiana Tech, Georgia Southern, Western Michigan, Ball State (!), Appalachian State, and New Mexico, among (75) others. He still, however, slots NU at fifth in the West-- Illinois is ranked #102; Purdue slides into the #112 spot nationally. NU's season-opening opponent, Stanford, is in Myerberg's top ten.
  
• ESPN, The Magazine also has a somewhat dim view of NU's chances this year, but not nearly as pessimistic as USA Today. ESPN consigns NU to dead last in the West, but a relatively high #68 in its power poll. The Magazine sees another five-win campaign for the 'Cats, and no bowl. It gives the team a 2% chance of a B1G title (it gives Rutgers and Indy a perfect 0.0% chance of a championship-- apparently these two teams no longer play in the conference).
• The staff at CollegeFootballNews.com see Northwestern's season opener against Stanford as the Wildcats' key game of the year: "It's the type of win a team that wants to be good needs to have." Overall, CFN is rather optimistic about NU, predicting that the Wildcats go bowling after a 7-5 season, with wins including Duke, Penn State, and Illinois. CFN has a bleak view of the Illini, picking Team Beckman in just three of its games. CFN ranks NU #50 in the preseason, tenth in the B1G, and fifth in the West.