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Posted 7/20/14;
Updated
8/10/14
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Media 2014 Previews and Predictions for the 'Cats: Mystery Team
We're halfway through summer and the annual college football magazines have appeared at the
newsstands,
offering their picks and predictions. The slate of previews
typically
begins with Athlon and Lindy's and concludes
with
the Big Ten's August media event, when the conference announces its
official
front runner.
Last year the mainstream prognosticators were atypically high on
Northwestern, and many picked the 'Cats for their top 25, blasting NU's
"Heinz Line"
phenomenon (media analysts invariably put NU at or
near #57 nationally). However, things did not turn out favorably for
the 'Cats, and NU limped to a 5-7 record, snapping its recent
bowl-eligible streak.
So how do the media see NU faring this coming season? Predictions are
all over the map: never before have the major media shown such a wide
spread in their picks for NU's season. The 'Cats return much of their
starting talent from 2013, including their All-American punt returner /
running back
and a seasoned quarterback. They lose another starting quarterback who
was both powerhouse star and colossal distraction. But distractions
remain, and the
union issue will likely hound the team for the rest of the year. Is the
team up for the challenge? Are they unified (rather than unionized)? Or
are they a house divided? Answers will follow in just a few weeks.
The Recap of the 2013 Predictions
For
2013, most of the media wildly overestimated NU's performance for the
season. One of the most accurate predictions was from Lindy's,
with its caution about NU's potential to sag with high expectations.
In most years, the "dog" pick from the media usually comes from the
site that ranks NU the lowest-- the 'Cats have typically
overperformed. However, 2013's dog picks unfortunately go to
NationalChamps.net and BTN's Tom Dienhart. Dienhart projected NU
to the Rose Bowl.
The 2014 List
During every summer since 2000, HailToPurple.com has posted a recap page
of what the larger 'Net and print publications predict for NU. Here are the 2014
Wildcat predictions so far (more to come later in August).
- It might have had one of the most accurate predictions last year, but let's hope that Lindy's
streak ends here. The magazine ranks NU a lowly 71st nationally this
summer, 12th in the B1G, and 6th in the Western Division, tied for last
with Purdue. Lindy's is more optimistic about Indiana, ranking the
Hoosiers 69th. As for the Wildcats, the magazine believes that the
union issue will indeed be a significant distraction, snarkily noting
that it's "difficult to negotiate labor relations while on the field..."
- As
mentioned above, this year features the greatest spread ever in the
media's perception of Northwestern's preseason position. While
Lindy's anchors the bottom of that range, Phil Steele claims
the top. Steele's magazine ranks the 'Cats an astonishing 44 spots
higher than Lindy's, placing NU at 27th in the nation, and second in
the Western Division (Steele gives the Western nod to Wisconsin).
Steele calls Venric Mark's return "a huge addition" and taps NU as one
of his most improved teams for 2014. He believes the offensive line, in
particular, will be "vastly improved." Interestingly, Steele notes that
Northwestern is one of only four Div. I-A schools in the nation to have
the same head coach, OC, and DC for the last six years.
- The Sporting News
only provides a top 25 preseason ranking, and NU is not listed.
However, TSN does give conference breakdowns, and it puts the 'Cats 5th
in the West, near the bottom, but good enough to snag a trip to the
Heart of Dallas Bowl.
- USA Today is slightly higher on the 'Cats potential, slotting NU at 4th in the West (64th nationally).
- Closer to the old Heinz Line, ESPN (Magazine) has NU ranked #52, but a rather dismal 10th in the B1G, just ahead of Minny
- Along with Lindy's, Athlon
is the other major preseason football publication that has survived in
print form for decades. Athlon predicts a season slightly better for NU
than last year: a 6-6 campaign with a 3-5 finish in the B1G, good
enough for a 4th-place finish in the West and 9th in the B1G overall
(just behind newcomer Maryland). Athlon has selected several Wildcats
to its first-team All-B1G team, including Ariguzo and Campbell on
defense and Mark on special teams (it gives Mark a second-team spot as
a running back).
- Internet statistician and ranking mogul James Howell has
been offering his rankings and game predictions for many years.
For the 2014 pre-season his power rankings slot NU at #61, 8th in the
B1G and 4th in the West (behind Iowa; ahead of Minny). Howell does not
have the B1G in a strong overall position. The conference barely cracks
the top ten (OSU is 8th) and Purdue falls out of the top 100.
- Sports blogger Steve Deace
predicts every team's number of wins, giving each a range. Deace gives
Northwestern a six to eight-win range, which ties the 'Cats for 6th in
the B1G for overall wins (along with Nebraska and Penn State).
- Like many other media predictions, CollegeFootballNews.com
pivots its NU pick on how well the team gets through the colossal union
distraction. "If the program and the school can overcome [the union
issue], there's enough talent returning on both sides of the ball to
get right back into the hunt for really big things." CFN also notes (as
do many) the importance of improving both sides at the line. Seven or
eight wins seems like an achievable and successful season.
- Brian Leigh, columnist for Bleacher Report,
ranks each Big Ten team by its chances of making the 2014 season
playoff. Leigh puts Ohio State in the lead (with 5-4 odds, by Leigh's
calculation); Northwestern winds up at seventh (35-1 odds). Leigh would
likely rank NU eighth in the conference (Penn State remains
disqualified for the postseason). Purdue clocks in at the bottom of the
conference with 300-1 odds.
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