Posted
7/20/14;
Updated
8/10/14

 





Media 2014 Previews and Predictions for the 'Cats:
Mystery Team


We're halfway through summer and the annual college football magazines have appeared at the newsstands, offering their picks and predictions.  The slate of previews typically begins with Athlon and Lindy's and concludes with the Big Ten's August media event, when the conference announces its official front runner.

Last year the mainstream  prognosticators were atypically high on Northwestern, and many picked the 'Cats for their top 25, blasting NU's
"Heinz Line" phenomenon (media analysts invariably put NU at or near #57 nationally). However, things did not turn out favorably for the 'Cats, and NU limped to a 5-7 record, snapping its recent bowl-eligible streak.

So how do the media see NU faring this coming season? Predictions are all over the map: never before have the major media shown such a wide spread in their picks for NU's season. The 'Cats return much of their starting talent from 2013, including their All-American punt returner / running back and a seasoned quarterback. They lose another starting quarterback who was both powerhouse star and colossal distraction. But distractions remain, and the union issue will likely hound the team for the rest of the year. Is the team up for the challenge? Are they unified (rather than unionized)? Or are they a house divided? Answers will follow in just a few weeks.

The Recap of the 2013 Predictions

For 2013, most of the media wildly overestimated NU's performance for the season.  One of the most accurate predictions was from Lindy's, with its caution about NU's potential to sag with high expectations.

In most years, the "dog" pick from the media usually comes from the site that ranks NU the lowest-- the 'Cats have typically overperformed.  However, 2013's dog picks unfortunately go to NationalChamps.net and BTN's Tom Dienhart.  Dienhart projected NU to the Rose Bowl.


The 2014 List

During every summer since 2000, HailToPurple.com has posted a recap page of what the larger 'Net and print publications predict for NU.  Here are the
2014 Wildcat predictions so far (more to come later in August).
  • It might have had one of the most accurate predictions last year, but let's hope that Lindy's streak ends here. The magazine ranks NU a lowly 71st nationally this summer, 12th in the B1G, and 6th in the Western Division, tied for last with Purdue. Lindy's is more optimistic about Indiana, ranking the Hoosiers 69th. As for the Wildcats, the magazine believes that the union issue will indeed be a significant distraction, snarkily noting that it's "difficult to negotiate labor relations while on the field..."
  • As mentioned above, this year features the greatest spread ever in the media's perception of Northwestern's preseason position.  While Lindy's anchors the bottom of that range, Phil Steele claims the top. Steele's magazine ranks the 'Cats an astonishing 44 spots higher than Lindy's, placing NU at 27th in the nation, and second in the Western Division (Steele gives the Western nod to Wisconsin). Steele calls Venric Mark's return "a huge addition" and taps NU as one of his most improved teams for 2014. He believes the offensive line, in particular, will be "vastly improved." Interestingly, Steele notes that Northwestern is one of only four Div. I-A schools in the nation to have the same head coach, OC, and DC for the last six years.
  • The Sporting News only provides a top 25 preseason ranking, and NU is not listed. However, TSN does give conference breakdowns, and it puts the 'Cats 5th in the West, near the bottom, but good enough to snag a trip to the Heart of Dallas Bowl.
  • USA Today is slightly higher on the 'Cats potential, slotting NU at 4th in the West (64th nationally).
  • Closer to the old Heinz Line, ESPN (Magazine) has NU ranked #52, but a rather dismal 10th in the B1G, just ahead of Minny
  • Along with Lindy's, Athlon is the other major preseason football publication that has survived in print form for decades. Athlon predicts a season slightly better for NU than last year: a 6-6 campaign with a 3-5 finish in the B1G, good enough for a 4th-place finish in the West and 9th in the B1G overall (just behind newcomer Maryland). Athlon has selected several Wildcats to its first-team All-B1G team, including Ariguzo and Campbell on defense and Mark on special teams (it gives Mark a second-team spot as a running back).
  • Internet statistician and ranking mogul James Howell has been offering his rankings and game predictions for many years.  For the 2014 pre-season his power rankings slot NU at #61, 8th in the B1G and 4th in the West (behind Iowa; ahead of Minny). Howell does not have the B1G in a strong overall position. The conference barely cracks the top ten (OSU is 8th) and Purdue falls out of the top 100.
  • Sports blogger Steve Deace predicts every team's number of wins, giving each a range. Deace gives Northwestern a six to eight-win range, which ties the 'Cats for 6th in the B1G for overall wins (along with Nebraska and Penn State).
  • Like many other media predictions, CollegeFootballNews.com pivots its NU pick on how well the team gets through the colossal union distraction. "If the program and the school can overcome [the union issue], there's enough talent returning on both sides of the ball to get right back into the hunt for really big things." CFN also notes (as do many) the importance of improving both sides at the line. Seven or eight wins seems like an achievable and successful season.
  • Brian Leigh, columnist for Bleacher Report, ranks each Big Ten team by its chances of making the 2014 season playoff. Leigh puts Ohio State in the lead (with 5-4 odds, by Leigh's calculation); Northwestern winds up at seventh (35-1 odds). Leigh would likely rank NU eighth in the conference (Penn State remains disqualified for the postseason). Purdue clocks in at the bottom of the conference with 300-1 odds.