Posted
6/9/13;
Updated
6/30/13

 





Media 2013 Previews and Predictions for the 'Cats:
Great Expectations


Welcome to summer!  The annual college football magazines are beginning to appear at the newsstands, offering their picks and predictions.  The slate of previews typically begins with the annual magazines from Athlon and Lindy's and concludes with the Big Ten's August media event, when the conference announces its official front runner.

Typically, the print prognosticators do not favor NU.  Of course, most of these previews are written by magazines trying to sell copies, and favoring the biggest teams (that is to say, the teams with the biggest followings) is a profitable strategy.  However, NU has occasionally bucked that trend and the conventional thinking: in 2001, coming off its Big Ten title, NU was a Big Ten favorite in many of the preseason predictions.

2013 is shaping up to be a year of very high expectations, and perhaps the first year of a new trend for Northwestern, with a new set of assumptions.  Coming off of the Gator Bowl victory, a ten-win season, ranked in the 2012 post-season polls, and with a host of returning talent, NU is expected to crack the pre-season polls for the first time since 2001, and expectations for NU among the media and fans are at their peak.  The "Heinz Line" phenomenon (media analysts invariably putting NU at or near #57 nationally) is officially dead.

One watchout lurks with this season's predictions for NU: the Wildcats nearly always defy expectations.  When media expectations are low (nearly every season since 1997), the 'Cats typically finish much stronger than the media predicted.  When expectations are high (1997, 2001...), NU has continued to defy the experts, but in an undesirable manner.  Will 2013 be the year that expectations and performance align?

The Recap of the 2012 Predictions

Before the 2012 season, most of the media-- as is typical-- underestimated the 'Cats.  By far the most accurate prediction for 2012 came from ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr., the only major media commentator to predict that NU should be ranked.

Last year's Dog Pick goes to both getrealfootball.com (for its 4-8 prediction) and to the increasingly inaccurate Phil Steele.  Steele earns a share of the 2012 Dog because he not only ranked NU below the Heinz Line, he picked Illinois over the 'Cats.  Well played.


The 2013 List

Every summer since 2000, HailToPurple.com has posted a recap page of what the larger 'Net and print publications predict for NU.  Here are the
2013 Wildcat predictions so far (more to come throughout the summer):
  • Until last season, Athlon had turned in the most accurate pre-season prediction for NU for three straight years.    Athlon ranks NU 24th nationally (just above Oregon State), and third in the Legends Division.  The magazine debated the third-place spot for the division, giving Nebraska and Michigan the first two places, and struggling to fill the third position with either Michigan State or NU.  Ultimately, Athlon tabbed the Wildcats because of the amount of returning talent.  Like most of the pre-season publications so far, Athlon mentions Northwestern's very difficult 2013 schedule: "The team will have to handle a tougher schedule and the preseason hype, which at times hasn't panned out for Northwestern."  Hype or no, Athlon predicts a 9-3 record for the 'Cats, with a 5-3 conference mark.
  • The Sporting News has released its early summer predictions, and they are nearly identical to Athlon: TSN picks NU third in the Legends, behind Nebraska and Michigan, and ahead of Michigan State.  TSN has offered up the highest bowl projection so far for the 'Cats, predicting the Outback.  The magazine is very high on Venric Mark and Tyler Scott, ranking them both among the best in the B1G.
  • Lindy's comes close to placing NU in its preseason top 25, slotting the 'Cats at #28, below Wisconsin and Northern Illinois.  Lindy's predicts a 6th-place B1G finish for NU, but cautions that the "team sags when expectations are higher."
  • They have not yet made their pre-season picks and predictions, but the folks at CollegeFootballNews.com have offered up their preview of NU, and note that the season will be a success for the 'Cats if they "...win ten games again.  Having to play Ohio State and Wisconsin from the Leaders is a horrendous break, and going to Nebraska won't help.  Those three games could be just enough to keep NU out of the Big Ten title chase, but for a program that struggled for so long to win a second bowl game, another 9-3 season with a post-season victory would be fantastic."
  • Internet statistician and ranking mogul James Howell has been offering his rankings and game predictions for many years.  For the 2013 pre-season his power rankings slot NU at #35, one of the lower rankings among the pre-season prognosticators.  Howell places the 'Cats seventh in the conference, behind Penn State.  Also ranked above NU: Northern Illinois and Tulsa.
  • NationalChamps.net's 2013 Early Bird Preview makes one of the highest picks for NU, ranking the 'Cats #18, and a whopping second in the Big Ten, behind only #7 Ohio State.
  • There will be more to come from the Bleacher Report, but David Fitzgerald II has weighed in with his Big Ten bowl predictions, and he projects Northwestern to the Capital One Bowl to face Florida.  Fitzgerald foresees a showdown between NU and Nebraska for the Cap One spot, with Northwestern getting the nod whether or not it makes it to the conference championship game.
  • Always the most anticipated college print annual, Phil Steele's College Football Review provides a fairly balanced view of the 'Cats.  In Steele's power poll, NU clocks in unranked, at #32 nationally, just ahead of Boise State and Penn State.  Steele predicts that Nebraska will take the Legends, and NU will tie for third in the division, heading possibly to the Wings Bowl to face Baylor.  Despite keeping NU out of his top 25, Steele does include NU as one of his 14 teams that "has what it takes" in 2013 to vie for the national title.
More to come...